Carolina and Duke

As dawn breaks on the 2017 NCAA basketball tournament I am feeling very good about the Tar Heels' chances.  Look for Joel Berry in particular to be a beast, and try to make up for the foul trouble that plagued him and Carolina in the ACC tournament semi-final loss.

It took me a while to recover from the ACC tournament.  When I was growing up in North Carolina it was a life or death event; only the ACC tournament champion would go to the big dance back then. So winning the ACC tournament is not necessary for your team to have a successful season, but not winning it still stinks.  

Much like the loss of an election to Donald Trump can make you question everything about America, one loss to Duke can do the same about the state of Carolina basketball.  Almost 2 days later I still can not get over that loss.

The U.S. blowing a 5-0 lead to the DR in the World Baseball Classic that night did not help, nor did Duke's win over Notre Dame. To demonstrate how chaotic this sports weekend was (I drafted most of this blog on Sunday, March 12th), the only safe harbor in the weekend sports storm was the Wizards!  The normally forgotten and formerly hapless 'Zards!

[Coincidentally, as I type this I'm listening to 'You've Got To Lose' by Cesar Rosas, off his solo record Soul Disguise.]

Anyway, the loss to the Devils prompted me to see if the 'data' supported my sour mood about my beloved Tar Heels. I looked at the last 10 years, specifically at: our over all record; ACC regular season and tournament performance; head to head vs. Duke; All-ACC selections; finally NBA All Star-game selections, to see how we stack up against the Dookies. This exercise also reminded me of ol' Roys quote about last year's squad:  "I've never seen such a good team talked about like it was a bad team" like the 2016 Final Four team, or something like that.  No matter what the data shows, the Heels have been very good lately.

Here are what the numbers say, and though they are impressive Stephen Miller's alma mater has a slight edge, especially since the end of the Tyler Hansbrough era. FYI, Hansbrough is currently playing for the Ft. Wayne Mad Ants in the D League, where he had 12 and 17 in their last game. Gulp.

I will start with the good news: overall, UNC is 134 and 109 versus the devils. The bad news is we have a six-game losing streak versus the school that taught Richard Nixon the law in the ACC tournament. Our loss on Friday also means we are now 49-50 versus the devils in our last 99 games (I am too old to make a Jay Z reference here). Finally, the worst number: in the last ten years we are 8-14 against our nemesis from the Bull City. 

Overall, we are 285-84, for a .772 winning percentage, over the last 10 years. Impressive stuff, but the devils are 295-68 for an astounding .812 winning percentage.  

The other pieces of good news for Heels fans are:

• We lead in first place finishes in the regular season, 6 to 1. Our overall ACC record is 124-46 in that span while Duke, owing to our 5-11 season in 2010, bests us with a 127-43 mark.
• UNC has had 4 ACC Players of the Year - Justin Jackson, Tyler Zeller, Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough - against just 2 for Duke in Jahlil Okafor and Nolan Smith.  We also lead them in guys named Ty or Tyler.  
• Carolina has more NCAA wins, 25 to 22, and Final Four appearances, 3 versus 2, compared to the devils. We each have 7 losses in that ten-year span, with Dook losing twice in the first round. But at least they made the tournament those two years; the 2010 team is our blemish since we have only played in 9 of the last 10 NCAA tournaments while Duke is 10 for 10.

The flip side of those stats are:  

• They have 2 national championships to our one. UConn is the only other school with 2 championships in that span.
• Dook has 4 ACC tournament championships to our 2, and their record in the event is 19-6 while we are 17-8.
• Though we have had more ACC players of the year (4 to 2), they have had 12 first-team all ACC players to our nine.
• Thanks mainly to Kyrie "I believe the Earth is flat!" Irving, Ben Quayle's alma mater has had 6 NBA all stars in the last 10 years compared to only two for Michael Jordan's; Irving 3 times, Luol Deng twice and Carlos Boozer once. The last two UNC NBA all stars were Rasheed Wallace and Antawan Jamison, in 2008!  FYI, thanks for Chris Paul (9) and Tim Duncan (6) Wake Forest of all schools has had 16 NBA all stars in the last 10 years, with Jeff Teague picking up one selection.

Carolina goes into overtime and beats Villanova last year and these numbers are practically even. But that is sports for you; we honor the effort but the winners get the spoils.  

Finally, for a more cynical take, how about the the 'curse of Harrison Barnes'?  Barnes came to Carolina as perhaps the most celebrated recruit of all time (in college basketball, not just at Carolina).  While he had a great two-year run in Chapel Hill, Barnes did not live up to the incredible hype (except for perhaps the last two-thirds of his freshman year), and injuries to Kendall Marshall and John Henson in 2011 and 2012 derailed any hopes of a national championship or even a final four.  He was supposed to be Jordan and Worthy, with a little Wayne Ellington (a great outside shooter), rolled into one player. Instead he was more of an rich man's Reggie Bullock (who I love, BTW; love Barnes, too).  

Conversely, Kyrie Irving enrolled at Duke at the same time. Injuries limited him to only 7 games in Durham, but since then he has stolen Barnes' mojo. He was the number one pick in the NBA draft, has become a perennial All Star, started on the U.S. Olympic team while Barnes barely played, and even hit the game winning shot in the NBA finals last year. Irving has basically had the career that Barnes was supposed to have.  He's become the transcendental talent of his generation, a title scouts bestowed on Barnes in high school.

In time Barnes may become that kind of basketball savant. He is a very good player, but for now in the shadow of Kyrie Irving. 

A Game That Defines the Season

Last night's loss to Duke was more than a disappointing loss to our smug and lesser arch-rivals. The loss epitomizes why so many Tar Heel born, bred and dead fans feel uneasy about this team and it's lack of progress.

To me, there have been 3 themes - or problems - with this team, and all were on display last night in Chapel Hill.

1. This team is too dependent on Marcus Paige. I love Marcus Paige; in our new post-Wainstein era he is exactly who we need leading this team and frankly being the student face of the entire university. But the operative word there is lead. A leader leads but does not make every play, but that's what this team expects and all the opposing teams know it. As Jawad Williams tweeted (@worldwad) last night, someone else needs to step up and help Paige and this team win some games. Paige was magnificent last night vs. the Devils but needed help down the stretch but did not get much if any assistance. Finally, in a cruel twist considering recent events, an over reliance on one player is anti-Dean. One 'criticism' of Dean is that he was too egalitarian and team-oriented (yes, some idiots actually said that). Well, sharing the wealth is how you win games and championships. Look at Worthy-Perkins-Jordan, or Montross-Williams-Lynch-Phelps, or Lawson-Hansbrough-Ellington-Green, or Bird-McHale-Johnson-Parrish, or LeBron-Wade-Bosh, or Duncan-Parker-Ginobili-Popovich, Magic-Kareem-Worthy, Jordan-Pippen-Jackson, etc.
2. Point two is related to point one: the uneven development of the players on this team. Paige and Brice Johnson were both named third-team ACC, which seems about right. Johnson is the only player to have gotten better this year, and was the only other reliable Tar Heel on the floor versus the Devils besides Paige. Offensively Johnson is confident and has some great moves, is as athletic as you would imagine a state high jump champion to be, and does the work on the glass. But this team has been undone by a lack of progress from Kennedy Meeks and T.P. Tokoto and spotty  play from everyone else in the rotation: Britt, Jackson, Berry, James, Pinson. None of those guys are reliable contributors game to game. At the end of a season you should see more development from all the players, but especially from Meeks and Tokoto. Both could and should have been All-ACC players but instead they have looked lost down the stretch.
3. Which of course is maybe our biggest problem. In addition to being un-Dean in terms of players, it also appears that this team is very un-Carolina at the end of games. Your typical Tar Heels squad - the pre-broken wrist 2012  Kendall Marshall squad is probably the most recent example - is a well-oiled, smart and poised machine at the end of the season. But not this one. The late-game melt downs at Duke, at Louisville, and at home versus Virginia, State and the Devils could not be more frustrating or vexing. Of course, this problem is the sum of the first two issues. Who are these guys making all these unforced errors? Their jerseys say Carolina so my eyes believe it but my gut, my heart and the Carolina-blue blood coursing through my veins does not.

So what's next? It's hard to be optimistic at this stage of the season. To win the ACC tournament the Heels would have to go through Louisville (doable; we've practically beaten them twice already), Virginia (also doable especially if Meeks and Tokoto show up), and Duke. One of Dean's sayings is it's hard to beat a team three times in one season so I would love our chances to prove Dean right (again) and get some revenge against the Devils.

Even if this happens it's hard to imagine us going more than 2 or 3 games deep in the NCAAs. Another example of how un-Dean and un-Carolina team this teams seems to be. As sad as those 3 issues just discussed THAT may be the saddest admission of them all. 

Despite all that - GO HEELS!

Dean Hangover

Watching Carolina's game versus Pitt yesterday my fandom matched the level of play from the Heels. Given the news of the week, losing a basketball game on the road did not seem that big of a deal. I shrugged off the loss, unaffected, much the same way the players seemed to.

That said, there were some interesting basketball-game related insights.

1. Despite sleepwalking through much of the game the Heels DID tie it up late in the first half. But at the under-four time out the wheels fell off - and stayed off.
2. That run to tie the game was led by Kennedy Meeks, who came off the bench for the second game in a row. I imagine, or more to the point hope, that Meeks will be back in the starting line up versus Duke. As much as Isaiah Hicks has improved the Heels are strongest when Brice Johnson and Meeks are feeding off each other.
3. The other player who helped lead that run was Joel Berry. It was great to see the Florida freshman step up and play with confidence; he was so confident Roy had him start the second half at the point.
4. As good as it was to see Berry contribute it was also an admission that Nate Britt, after a great couple of games highlighted by his performance against Syracuse, and J.P. Tokoto have regressed in the last 4 games. We need both to get back to their A game if this team is to compete for an ACC championship and make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. 
5. This week's game at Duke may be just what this team needs. This is a good team, one that should regain it's focus and mojo in Cameron Indoor Stadium.  Never underestimate how some adversity can help get a team back on track. 

Finally, a huge 'point to the passer' to the University of Pittsburgh student section. 

Not only did the students unveil this banner but they also presented Roy with a signed card offering their condolences for Coach Smith's death. Those gracious actions from the self proclaimed Oakland Zoo prompted Roy to say "College athletics is not all bad. There are some darn good things that happen."

Kudos to the Oakland Zoo for the ultimate Dean move. Point to the passer!

Not THAT sad of a day

What is the best way to start a blog about one of the saddest days of the year, the day when the Tar Heels stop playing basketball?

It should not be just about one game, the final game of the season, but I suppose one has to start there. Oddly enough, it does not feel that bad, reviewing the loss to Iowa State.  The Heels played well, rebounded much better in the second half, and made shots.

Though it was a tough loss, that game contained many of the things that made this year's squad interesting and fun to watch, and also likeable.  What's not to like about a team that beats Michigan State IN East Lansing, beats the defending national champs, and smites all of our main rivals - Duke, NC State and Kentucky - in one season?

Sunday's game was a microcosm of the entire season.  It had J.P. Tokoto spinning and dunking, with a few steals, mid-range jumpers, even a bad turnover; Kennedy Meeks at his Little Sean May/taking down Louisville AND Michigan State best; Leslie McDonald finally getting to play and contributing - even Jackson Simmons taking a charge.*

It featured James Michael McAdoo keeping his head up, his persistence finally being rewarded as his drives to the basket resulted in points late.  It was JMM displaying the calm and leadership we sometimes take for granted, and then having the toughness to hit 2 big free throws.

And it featured Marcus Paige. There are plenty of adjectives to choose from in describing his play on Sunday and this year.  The best one is Tar Heel.

There are but a handful of Tar Heels who are extra special for their innate toughness, tenacity, brains, leadership - an understanding of the values stamped on Carolina basketball by Dean Smith. It is a short list: Bobby Jones, Phil Ford, Jimmy Black, George Lynch and David Noel.  Many others, like Kendall Marshall and Ademola Okulaja to name a few, come close. But it's a short list.

Marcus Paige is already one of those all time Tar Heels.

One reason so many of us care so much about Carolina basketball is that it ties us to the University we love.  The reason basketball is so central to our connection, again, is Dean.  His humility, wisdom and excellence are what we think of when we think of Carolina.

Not Carolina basketball - Carolina.

For me, Marcus Paige evokes the same thing. He is the personification of all of Dean's Carolina values. At a time when the athletic program is doing all it can to embarrass the University, Paige - an Academic and athletic All-American - restored the values that make Carolina CAROLINA.

He led the comeback, once again, against Iowa State, but his turnover late may have cost Carolina the game (though ISU's incredible shooting, and our spotty transition defense that left too many shooters too open, had more to do with it).

But can we - do we - really blame Paige for not being perfect, after the season he had, after the plays he made, and more importantly the way he carried himself, the way he epitomized why we love Carolina basketball and Carolina?  No.

Marcus Paige, Tar Heel.

GO HEELS!

* The game also did NOT feature Brice Johnson.  More on that next blog.  I will also look at ahead at next year, which looks very bright since Marcus Paige just tweeted that he is returning next year.

NCAA Tournament Observations

Besides watching the Heels lose the other big outrage from today is the field of 68.

• Sure, the ACC was down.  And Virginia Tech is a pretty stinky team in general: not that skilled, not well coached and thus not that focused.   But how the selection committee thought that VCU or UAB was better than the Hokies is beyond me.
• The new 68-team field stinks.  It should have stayed at 64.  The possibility, no matter how remote, that one team would have to play 7 games is unfair. I don't even want to fill in those four games in my bracket; it a charade. Go back to the old system, but select better committee members.
• Villanova, Marquette, and Cincinnati - whose strength of schedule was similar to snubbed Colorado's - did not deserve bids. In a fit of anti-BEast bias I'm picking Clemson to beat UAB, then take down West Virginia in the second round. Ditto Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois or Penn State.  Boston College would have beaten those last 6 teams, and probably Villanova the way the Wildcats finished the season.
• Alabama beats Georgia 3 times, and GEORGIA gets in?

My first draft Final Four has Carolina, UConn, Kansas and I guess Pitt.

EAST

Carolina has a decent but challenging draw.  They'll have to beat Syracuse and their zone, which will be a challenge but Barnes, McDonald and Marshall have been hot of late.  Then the Heels have to take down overall number one seed Ohio State.  If Carolina was not in that bracket I would pick the Buckeyes in a walk to make the Final Four. 

I don't expect many upsets in the East, other than Clemson over West Virginia, and Georgia beating Washington.

WEST

Duke has a semi-difficult draw for a change; no Baylor or West Virginia on the horizon like last year. I have some PIRG solidarity for UConn, and Kemba Walker is hot again.  It's their bracket to lose to me. 

This bracket features not one but TWO games featuring four teams from power conferences that nonetheless stink: Tennessee versus Michigan, and Missouri and Cincinnati.  I have Tennessee and Missouri winning.   No real upsets here, just stinky games.

Tennessee may give Duke trouble, but like many I see Texas taking the Devils out, and for UConn to end San Diego State's 15 minutes of fame.

SOUTHWEST

This bracket is sound and fury signifying nothing.  There may be some interesting background noise from my sleeper team but Kansas will make the Final Four. My sleeper school is Morehead State.  I have them taking down Louisville and Vanderbilt to go to the sweet 16 before losing to the Jayhawks.

I went back and forth on FSU-Notre Dame and Georgetown-USC. I ended up picking FSU to lose to Notre Dame in a game that will feature little scoring (even though they are a Big East team it's hard to pick against a Hansbrough; big brother Tyler had 29 points tonight, his fourth consecutive 20 point game, to single-handedly take down the Knicks).  I guess Georgetown will defeat USC but no way they handle Purdue. 

SOUTHEAST

Is this the year Pitt makes the Final Four for the first time since World War II?  Probably, since their bracket is full of bad basketball teams.  Wisconsin, Florida, and St. John's are the other top four seeds, hardly world beaters. Lot of toss up games - UCLA vs. Michigan State, UF versus that winner,  BYU vs. St. John's.  My other sleeper - Utah State - is in this bracket.  I have them in the sweet 16 before losing to Pitt.  

Of course, I have Carolina winning the national championship, taking down UConn and Kansas (payback for 2008) in Houston.  I love our four dudes - Zeller, Henson, Marshall and Barnes - and see them getting hot enough to win six in a row.

GO HEELS!

I still love the ACC tournament

Though it's not - thankfully - the old do-or-die event of my youth, I still love the ACC tournament.  Growing up in North Carolina it was THE sporting event of the year. 

Many ACC vets complain that the event is too NC-centric, and for years it was.  Back in the day it was always in Greensboro, and since each conference could only send one team to the NCAA tournament (until 1979 or so) it was HUGE. How huge? In school, teachers brought it TVs for the students to watch for two occasions: moon walks and the first day of the ACC tournament.

Of course, expansion of the ACC and the NCAA field has diluted the impact and significance of the ACC tournament. But I still love it, and it bothers me that even though Carolina has two national championships and has won the ACC regular season five of the seven years ol' Roy's been in Chapel Hill, Duke now has one more ACC tournament championship than we do. 

That will change this year, I hope. 

With a 1 pm conference call looming, here are my predictions:

• Virginia will defeat Miami, give Carolina a game in the first 10 minutes then succumb to the Heels on Friday;
• In a match up of the two worst coaches in the ACC, Virginia Tech will somehow defeat Georgia Tech. But don't be surprised if the Hokies choke big time, either;
• NC State will defeat Maryland, who seems to be phoning it in, then get waxed by Duke;
• BC will in turn wax Wake, then play a great game versus Clemson.  Both teams will be desperate, but I have BC winning and advancing to play Carolina.
• FSU will ride Chris Singleton's return to defeat a distracted and oddly complacent Virginia Tech team.

So Carolina will then have to play and defeat BC for a third time in the semi-finals, a prospect Dean always loathed.  But behind my pick for ACC tournament MVP John  Henson the Heels will make it to the final to play, FSU.

I was impressed by the Seminoles in their win over Duke - and their game versus Carolina.  With Singleton back and Singler and the Plumlees struggling look for an FSU upset, aided by Derwin Kitchen.

Then as it was versus BC, Carolina will need to defeat a team for a third time in a season, but the Heels will to win their 18th ACC Tournament Championship.

GO HEELS!

Notes on Fan-dom

Or the cure for fanaticism.

To me, fandom generally falls into two categories.  

As a Tar Heel fan I am quite familiar with the first one.  If your team is really good - or really bad - being a fan can be easy. With a few bumps in the road (say, against BC)  you know how your team is going to perform.  And you know where they are going to end up at the end of the season. That's true whether you're rooting for the Heels or the Clippers.

So if your team is good, you walk around confident that even with BC-like bumps your team will be okay in the end.  And if your team stinks you are equally content.  With expectations so low every win is a gift.   Either way, you aren't disappointed and individual games or results aren't life or death.

But the second category is the more tantalizing and terrible one, when your team looks like they should be good - and can even sustains quality play for a few games - but don't do so on a consistent basis.  

That's the case with our hometown Nats.  

Their offense, led by Ryan ZImmerman but with plenty of help from Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson and Christian Guzman, looks Tar Heelesque.  But their pitching, especially their relief pitching, is firmly in the Clippers/Pirates/Lions territory.  Their offense makes you CARE, and their pitching makes you cynical.  

That tantalizing paradox, the roller coaster of wins and losses, can drive a fan crazy.  

NCAA Preview

I'm a little nervous three hours before tip-off, but mainly calm. Some of that is age, but I think most of that calm comes from the Carolina basketball team. Their resolve and determination, coupled with pretty phenomenal talent, should be enough to win Carolina's fifth NCAA championship tonight (sixth overall if you count, as Carolina does, a team in the 1920s that was voted the number one team in the nation).

Michigan State will be very tough, especially on the boards, but the Heels should prevail. Offensively, teams that shoot the three effectively are the ones most likely to give Carolina problems, and the Spartans are not a great three-point shooting team. The Heels' three-point defense has been very effective in the last two games, so that will probably not be a problem tonight.

The bigger threat is probably from the crowd and the hype around playing for a downtrodden state. Adrenaline can make up for a lot. Hopefully Carolina starts strong and keeps the crowd from getting into the game early and effectively.

But bottom line, I can't see Michigan State stopping all of Carolina's weapons. If they focus on Hansbrough down low, that leaves things open for Ellington and Green. Finally, the home-state team will not be able to stop Ty Lawson. Travis Walton will probably guard Lawson, but he's similar to Oklahoma's Warren, another taller, longer guard. Warren couldn't stop Lawson, and neither will Walton.

As you know, Tar Heels love to brag about how humble we are. Nonetheless, I'll point out that I correctly picked Carolina to defeat Villanova by 14, accurately predicted that the Heels would win by 12 over Oklahoma, and was off by one point on the Gonzaga spread (I said 22, final score was by 21).

So my prediction for tonight is an eleven point win for the Heels, led by balanced scoring and tougher than expected defense. I'm sticking with my pick of Ellington leading Carolina to the win, but with Lawson having another strong game and being named MVP of the Final Four.

GO HEELS!

First Half

So far so good for the Heels.   As predicted, Carolina got off to a great start and led by as many as 17 behind Wayne Ellington and Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson.  Late in the half North Carolina got a little sloppy and left some shots on the rim, allowing Villanova to close to within nine.

Offensively, the Heels are getting whatever they want.  Davis and Zeller left a few shots on the rim, and the refs decided to swallow their whistles late in the half to keep Hansbrough off the line.  But the Heels are getting the shots they want.  

Defensively the Heels were a little loose.   Look for that to tighten up in the final 20, and look for Lawson to take charge.  But bottom line, I think Carolina's talent will overwhelm the Wildcats in the final 10 minutes.  This game is being played at Carolina's pace, a pace Villanova will not be able to keep up with for much longer.

GO HEELS!

Heels Handle Spartans

I really enjoyed watching Carolina thoroughly dominate Michigan State last night in the ACC-Big 10 challenge. It was a phenomenal performance by a squad that is playing NBA-quality basketball. To beat a team like Michigan State - quality program, perennial contender, pre-season final four favorite - that bad on the road is impressive.

This team just looks different than most college teams. Though it's only December and Hansbrough has only played in four games, the Heels are in sync and playing a high level of college basketball. The fact that Hansbrough, Ellington, Green and Lawson have played together three to four years makes this talented team a scary one. And I think it's noticeable because in this day and age teams don't stay together very long, at least teams as talented as the Heels.

Last night's game unfolded much like the win over Notre Dame, a top 10 opponent that hung with the Heels early only to be overwhelmed by Carolina's talent and effort.

And as it was versus Notre Dame, the two most impressive talents on the floor were Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson. Hansbrough was methodical and unstoppable as he posted another double-double. Once again he showed off his improved range, hitting a number of jumpers, and on the boards he is simply more determined than most players. Determination alone will make him a success at the next level.

On Lawson, I'm not sure where to begin. As good as Hansbrough was, Lawson was even better. Steals, assists, three-pointers, fast breaks, drives to the hole, etc. etc. etc. Lawson is playing with a focus and maturity that seems unstoppable right now. He's not just a fast point guard tailor made to run Roy Williams' offense. Lawson has grown into a complete basketball player and point guard.

Heels High Notes

• Great to see Wayne Ellington break out of his mini-slump. He looked great in the first half, hit shots from all over the floor, and finished with 17 points.
• I continue to be impressed with Ed Davis, who finished with 10 and 7 in only seventeen minutes. This guy is this year's Marvin Williams. What a weapon off the bench.
• My favorite play last night - among many including the two fast breaks started by my man Danny Green - was Will Graves' dunk off an in bounds pass. It was a great Carolina basketball play. That was not a play designed for Graves, simply two basketball players being smart on the floor, pure Carolina.
• Got to see Sheed in the stands!
• Once again, the ACC won the Big 10 challenge 6-5. The final tally should have been 8 to 3; Virginia Tech should have beaten Wisconsin, ditto Georgia Tech over Penn State, and Miami would have won if McClintock hadn't slapped an Ohio State hoopster. But even with those losses the ACC won, and the top two ACC teams - Carolina and Duke - humiliated the top two Big 10 teams on the road.
• Finally, Carolina's women's soccer team is back in the final four for the 24th time in the 27 history of NCAA women's soccer. They play again on Friday night, in Cary, on ESPNU. The Heels are shooting for their 22nd NCAA championship.

Go Heels!

Red Sox, Reputation and Right-wing hypocrisy

I don't know why I keep picking against the Red Sox.  As good as their pitching is, as solid as their line up is, their number one asset is they know how to win.  A professional operation through and through.  

Now last night was just one game, and the Rays demonstrated amazing comeback power in regular head-to-head match ups against the BoSox.  Down the stretch Tampa Bay played well in Fenway.  But winning last night in the Trop - a stadium I campaigned against, by the way, when I lived in St. Pete primarily due to the fact that they built it on a small toxic waste site, a former transfer station for dry cleaning fluids or something like that - is big for Boston. 

Lost in all the talk of Lester and Beckett was the fact that Matsuzaka had a great season in his own right, winning more games than any other Red Sox starter.  He was a dominant, shut down starter last night, the kind of clutch performance you want from a starter on the road.

Tonight's game is big for two reasons: to see if the Rays, especially their offense, can bounce back; and to see how healthy Beckett is.   Should be another good game.

I'm also being proven wrong by the Phillies-Dodgers series, though the Phillies are being patient before they unleash their offense.  The first six hitters in that line up are impressive, but I didn't expect them to overwhelm Billingsley like they did last night.   

Game one was a tense play off classic, the kind of game where one mistake can do a lot of damage.  On Thursday it did, and it cost Lowe and the Dodgers.  That said, I still love Rafael Furcal.  Why the Braves let him walk is beyond me.

Carolina Football Update

Brand image still goes a long way, which explains why I am so focused on Carolina's game today against Notre Dame.  Carolina is the higher ranked team, and is playing at home, but still feels like the underdog against a team with Notre Dame's reputation and history.  

That said, I hope we beat them badly. Doing so would go a long way in cementing the notion that Carolina football is legit, which in turn should really help with recruiting especially in state with NC State being kind of down but also regionally.

Conversely, a win over the Fighting Irish may give fans and alumni the false impression that the rehabilitation of the football program is complete, an assertion that I imagine Butch Davis would reject.  Realistically, I doubt that will happen; it's my impression that alumni like it when the football team is decent and respectable but don't get that invested in the program.

Election Update

Interesting to see how the mean-spirited crowds at Palin rallies became a story this week.  Sadly, it's explainable when you look at the right-wing echo chamber in this country, namely Fox News, talk radio and certain blogs and websites.  You just don't see that kind of anger on the left, for better or worse (obviously for the better, though it would have been nice to see so left-wing anger over invading the wrong country in response to the attacks of September 11th). 

Their anger reminds me, again, that right-wingers are less patriotic than left-wingers in my book. They are much more ideological than the left, and certainly more angry then left is too. This vitriol reminds me of Duke and Carolina fans.  Dookies seem to hate us much more than we hate them.  

As exhibit A, look at how the right treated John Kerry's military service.  Kerry volunteered for Vietnam - unlike President Bush - and unlike John McCain - who flew a bomber - Kerry was on a boat and on the ground fighting his war.  Again unlike McCain, he was responsible for a squad of men, saw those men die, and perhaps more importantly saw the people he killed.  In short, all the attributes Republicans laud about McCain that Kerry displayed were mocked and challenged.

One reason liberals stayed quiet in the run up to the war in Iraq five years ago was the consensus that as a nation we have to support our troops (of course, the other reason is the President lied, etc).  The hypocrites on the right did not afford John Kerry the same respect or courtesy four years ago.

Baseball Playoffs; Ayers Redux

After batting .750 - going 3 for 4 in picking the Phillies, Dodgers, and Rays - in the first round I'm feeling a bit cocky. I don't know why I picked against the Sox; those guys are professionals with underrated pitching led by an underrated manager in Terry 'Don't Call Me Tito' Francona.  Managing a team expected to win, in a region and nation consumed with the Sox, plus replacing arguably your best hitter in mid-season is quite an accomplishment. Got to give it up for Francona.  And I shouldn't have picked against them. 

That said, I'm picking against them again.  The Rays look like a team of destiny, getting nice starting pitching, great work from the bull pen, and timely hitting.  Plus they are too young to know better, and they're playing in a terrible stadium that gives them a home field advantage.  

I'm picking the Rays in 6.  

In the NL the Dodgers are the team to beat.  Their pitching is peaking at the right time; I love Lowe and Kuroda is as good a number three starter in the NL.  Though a tad shaky in the bullpen that starting pitching should nullify the Phils' considerable power.   

This will be a good, tense series of close games as the Dodgers pitch with precision and the Phillies patiently wait for balls to drive.  Look for Loney and Martin, the guys who hit around Manny, to once again lead the offense.   Dodgers in seven.

One More Thing 

As many of you know, over the weekend Sarah Palin accused Obama of 'palling around with known terrorists' in reference to Obama's acquaintance with former dumb-ass hippie Bill Ayers.  Of course, husband Todd used to be a member of the Alaska Independence Party, a party that favors Alaska's secession from the United States.  Kind of a wash.

Here's hoping that if McCain repeats that accusation, Obama answer's "You know who I pal around with - Robert Rubin, Warren Buffet, and Paul Volker, guys who know how to regulate Wall Street, create wealth, etc."  plus, "I was 8 years old at the time you old, old, old, old, and might I add real old man."

Cubs, White Sox and Obama Make Chicago Center of the Universe

Interesting baseball playoffs coming up.  First you have compelling and traditional teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox, recent World Series winners like the White Sox and Angels, and newcomers such as the Brewers and the Rays.  The Phillies are in there, too, and the Yankees are not.

Half of the first round divisional play offs look like cake walks.  Since CC Sabathia can't pitch every day, I don't expect the Brewers to put up much of a fight against the Phillies. Too much Phillies offense versus very weak Brewers pitching means Philadelphia will advance to the National League Championship Series.

Same in the American League, where I expect the Rays to beat the White Sox.  That series will be tighter than the Brewers-Phillies match up, but I'm still not sold on the ChiSox despite having Obama as a fan.  The Rays will drop a game but move on.

The other two series look like great match ups. Angels-Red Sox is a World Series-worthy series.  The Angels were a trendy pick for a while, and I still think they will win this series.  But the reason has more to do with the Sox than the Angels.  Beckett is hurt, Lowell and Drew are banged up, and the Red Sox bull pen is not that strong. The Red Sox will give them a run, but I see the Angels advancing 3 games to 2.

The Dodgers-Cubs match up is another intriguing one, the best of the four first-round series.  The Cubs look like the best team in the NL, but the Dodgers pitching staff will give them fits - and they have Manny Ramirez.  Derek Lowe has been fantastic down the stretch, as has Chad Billingsley.  Then again, Rich Harden and Ryan Dempster could equal things out.  My head says Cubs, but my gut says pick the Dodgers and their pitching in a 5 game series.  This one will be close and tense with some great baseball. 

So I think it will be Phillies vs. Dodgers (or Cubs) in the NL, and the Rays advancing to play the Angels in the AL.  

 

ACC Tournament Semi-finals

No surprises on day two of the ACC tournament.

Carolina handled FSU despite allowing the Seminoles to shoot almost 50 percent. The outcome was never really in doubt once the Heels took the lead half way through the first half behind Hansbrough, Ginyard and Ellington's shot near the end of the half.

But for much of the first half the Heels seemed to be playing down to the level of the competition.

The most significant development of the first half actually happened before the game started when Ty Lawson was introduced as the starting point guard. Lawson looked ok, and I agree with other commentators who noted that he still is not at full speed.

Though he didn't start Quentin Thomas had another great game off the bench, with 4 points, 3 assists, a couple of assists and a block in eighteen minutes. Q only had one turnover, and in general the Heels took care of the ball to finish with only 10 turnovers.

In the second half Carolina was much more focused and much more productive, at least on offense and the boards. In the first half the Heels were actually out rebounded, but fixed that in the second half. Carolina also repeatedly fed the post and Hansbrough finally went to the foul line after 3 halves of not shooting a free throw. Ellington also had a nice half, and though he didn't shoot well Danny Green made a number of nifty plays and passes, and the Heels maintained a comfortable lead for most of the game before eventually winning 82 - 70.

BTW, there was a big piece on Hansbrough in USA Today this week.

Though it wasn't the most exciting or well played game, it still was a nice win. FSU is a pretty decent team with a lot of scorers. And the Seminoles were playing for a shot - granted a very long shot - at the NCAA tournament. Finally, as Dean always said it's hard to beat a team three times in a season.

The Heels now play Virginia Tech today at 1:30. You may recall the Thomas-led Heels defeated the Hokies by 39 points about a month ago. That humiliation was the turning point of the season for Virginia Tech; after that game coach Seth Greenberg had each player sign a pledge (I pledge to: play hard for my teammates, give my all, listen to the coaches, be a good student, etc.). That seems to have worked as Tech recovered to finish with 9 wins in conference.

Their win over Miami yesterday - a competitive though inelegant game - should be enough to get them into the field of 64. But I assume Virginia Tech will play as if they need one more win - against a marquee opponent like the Heels - to punch their ticket.

That said, I imagine the game will be close early before the Heels pull away methodically for a 20 point win.

Other ACC Tournament Thoughts

• Duke eventually pulled away from Georgia Tech last night to set up a semi-final game versus Clemson. That should be a good game, but my money is on Duke and a rematch for the ACC championship between Carolina and Duke.
• One thing that gives me pause is the way Clemson dispatched BC. Granted, it's BC, but more than the score I was impressed by the way Clemson played. The Tigers were focused and aggressive. I still think Duke will win but it will be a good game.
  
• I watched the second half of the Duke-Tech game with long time friend - and friend of this blog - Joe Pillow, in for a visit from Seattle (where Joe reports it is hard to watch enough Carolina hoops), my former badminton partner from Carolina Mary Cotter and her husband at a gay sports bar on U Street called Nellie's. Prior to that we went to my new favorite DC spot The Saloon (No TV; No Standing) for some quality craft beer from Germany and Belgium - and some terrible dip called mirza.
  
• Finally, I wasn't crazy about Roy's introducing Hansbrough to a referee at the end of the game yesterday. Perhaps he did it tongue in check, and it did not come up in his post-game press conference. But it looked like he was showing up the refs a bit, and bottom line Dean would never do that.

Other Random Hoops Thoughts

• Nice piece by Feinstein (2 references in 2 days for the Duke grad!) about American University Jeff Jones in today's Post. American defeated Colgate for the Patriot League championship and their first appearance - after 41 years of hoops - in the NCAA tournament.
  
• As most of you know, Jones played and coached at Virginia before being fired by his alma mater. Jones took the Cavaliers to the tournament 5 times in 8 years; conversely the Wahoos have been lost in the hoops wilderness ever since under Pete Gillen and Dave Leito. Anyway, congrats to Jones and AU, the university closest to our home and thus the one I hope my kids go to (if they don't go to Carolina, of course).
• Interesting to note that Gary Williams and Jimmy Lynam both coached at AU. But the most infamous player or coach in AU history is probably . . . ? Hint - his first name is the same as a famous muppet. Who knows that answer?

Two Great Comebacks Against BC

It's hard to figure out where to begin in blogging about Carolina's great win this afternoon against Boston College. 

So I guess I'll start with the obvious - the great comeback from 18 points down in the second half en route to a 90-80 road win.  Add this game to the list of celebrated Carolina comebacks.  The Heels trailed by 14 at the half and the deficit quickly ballooned to 18 after two more Rice baskets two minutes into the final stanza.  Rice was out of his head on fire in the first half on his way to 34 points.

Since this is a Carolina and Hellenic blog, I'll remind folks that among the greatest sins - perhaps the greatest sin - to the ancient Greeks was hubris.  Rice was hot, but I believe his hubris - exemplified by his fanning of himself after his seventh made three pointer - offended the Carolina Comebacks gods, a pantheon that includes Cunningham, Bradley, Jordan, Lynch and Dean.  

Perhaps for that reason, no matter how hot Rice was and even after the Heels got down by 18, this was one of those games where you just knew the Heels were somehow going to win.   I've blogged this before, but that is just one of those feelings a Tar Heel gets.

One reason you feel it is the coaching of folks like Dean and ol' Roy.  Roy pulled the starters after Rice's second basket of the second half gave the Eagles the 18-point lead.  Whatever Roy said to his starters worked.

The other thing Roy said in the second half that worked was "Danny, go in for . . . "  My man Danny Green was phenomenal today, hitting 3 three-point shots during a 22-3 run that fueled Carolina's comeback.   He finished 4 of 8 on three pointers, and with 18 points and 7 boards.   Green just oozed confidence on his jump shots, and came off the bench with a determined looked on his face that said "Enough is enough; time for me to lead the Heels to a win today."  He did.

Of course, he had help from Wayne Ellington.  At half time I told Ariadne and Evan, 'don't worry, the Heels are going to win this game, and it would be a lot easier if Ellington got hot.'  Well, safe to say he got hot.   After scoring only two points in the first half, Ellington hit two huge threes and showed off his new, varied and complete floor game.  In addition to going two for five on threes, he finished 7 for 12 for 20 points, and 3 steals. Ellington was excellent on both ends of the floor - this guy is no longer simply a three-point shooter - and was as good as any college player in the country in the second half.

Ellington was not alone in playing great defense in the second half;  Green, Ginyard  and the entire team did a nice job, especially on Rice.  Carolina was quick to double team in the final 20 minutes, and also did a great job of playing the passing lanes.   The comeback was fueled by steals and forced turnovers as much as it was by Green and Ellington.

The defense of Rice in the second half  brings me to the second great comeback in the game. I'm of course referring to the return of Ty Lawson.   

How great was it to see Lawson check into the game in the first half?  Me, I was visually and audibly giddy. Offensively Lawson didn't really look for his shot, but he did manage 5 assists in 21 minutes.   And Ty did have one of his patented blow-bys to the rack.  

But defense was where Lawson dramatically impacted this game.  In the first half Rice hit a number of tough and contested shots, with Q in is face on most the them.  The difference in the second half was that Lawson's pressure on Rice kept him from a) getting any open looks at all, and b) initiating any kind of offense for the Eagles.   

I loved the defense, but loved seeing him on the floor even more.

 

Finally, as great as Green and Ellington were, how about Tyler Hansbrough? Psycho T finished with a game high 25 points and 9 rebounds.  He also had the assist on Green's first three of the second half.   More importantly, he single handedly kept the Heels in the game in the first half.

The other guy who helped keep the Heels in striking distance despite the onslaught from Rice was Will Graves.  He scored 5 quick and calming points late in the first half, and also picked up a nifty steal.  Quality minutes at a key time from our only freshman.

A great team effort and great comeback from the Heels today.  It was a great game to watch and a great win.  

Finally, the win coupled with losses by Tennessee, Memphis, and others this week means that the Heels will probably be number one on Monday.   What a nice tribute to Quentin Thomas as he prepares for senior night on Wednesday against Florida State.   No one, including me, thought that he could do what he has done - including leading the Heels to the number one spot in the polls - these last seven games. 

Congrats, Q.  Let's hope your senior season ends the same way your freshmen year did.  

A Few Hoops Notes:

• Lots of big games lately and left on the ACC schedule.  How about that huge win by Maryland on Thursday at Wake Forest behind James Gist's 31 points?  Talk about rising to the occasion; who does Gist think he is, Danny Green?  
• The Deacons lost again today at Georgia Tech, and are now 6-8 with games at Virginia Tech and at home to State left.  A win over Maryland would have given them a great chance to get to 9-7 in the league; now they have to win in Blacksburg to get to 8 wins.  Even then, they would probably have to win at least one game in the ACC tournament.
• Kudos to Maryland for the impressive road win.  If they defeat Clemson in College Park for their ninth conference win on Sunday they should be in the tournament.  
• Even if they lose to Maryland tomorrow, Clemson should get to nine wins if they defeat Virginia Tech at home next weekend, and have an outside chance to get to 10 wins in conference if they can beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
• Virginia Tech can also get to 9 wins by defeating Wake at home on Tuesday.
• Miami's late season surge continued today with win at home over Virginia.   The Canes remaining games are at home to BC and at FSU. Both are winnable, and the U is almost guaranteed to finish with at least 8 wins in conference.
• Tough but explainable loss for State today against Duke.  State just doesn't have the fortitude to compete and win games like Carolina or Duke does.  I bet every fan in the RBC Center felt the dread and certainty that somehow the Pack was going to lose despite holding a 13-point lead with 5 minutes left.  
• Virginia lost despite 41 points from Sean Singetary and leading at half.  Interesting to note both teams with 40+ scorers lost today in the ACC.
• Finally, despite the loss the Cavaliers are playing with some spunk and passion, and will beat Duke this week in Charlottesville.  
• My guess is the ACC gets six teams in the tournament: Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Miami, though Wake could sneak in if they finish 8-8 and win a game or two in the ACC tournament.

Two totally random notes:

• I had probably the best beer I've ever had this week on Wednesday night.  Navin Nayak took me to The Saloon on U Street ("No TV, No Standing") where I feasted on Saxo, an organic, monk-brewed beer from Belgium.  So I was giddy twice on Saturday: when Lawson checked into the game, and when I found Saxo at Rodman's.
• I got a hair cut today, and usually when I ask about a possible bald spot on my head my barber Panayoti always says 'get out of here; I'm bald and I know bald and you are not starting to go bald.'  But today when I asked my Greek-Cypriot friend said, "Well, you're not as bald as me."   

Big Games Loom As ACC Season Goes to the Wire

There are quite a few huge games left in the last 4 weeks of the ACC regular season.  This looked like a down year for the ACC.  Despite possessing the best RPI in the country, and dominating the ACC-Big 10 challenge for the seventh year in a row, for weeks it looked like the ACC would be a four and at best a five bid league in terms of the NCAA tournament.

But three games last week changed that.  Duke's two loses to Wake and Miami have placed those teams firmly on the bubble.  And Virginia Tech's impressive bounce back win - on the road - over Maryland coupled with their very favorable schedule places the Hokies back in contention.  

All of a sudden, one can envision a scenario where the ACC gets seven teams into the field of 65.

Here is my team-by-team breakdown - in no particular order - of the remainder of the ACC regular season (courtesy of my visit to the eye doctor on Friday; I was there for two hours and between tests was able to forecast the remainder of the season):

FSU: despite a nice win over Clemson last week I think the Noles will finish by going 1-3 and 5-11 overall; they only have one more winnable game on the schedule, at home vs. BC, with a huge game vs. Miami in Tallahassee to the last regular season game for FSU; that game will mean more to UM so I have the Canes winning that tilt.

BC: only one winnable game left on their schedule, against Georgia Tech at home; after a nice start to the ACC season I think they'll finish at 5-11.

Maryland: the Terps have the most challenging remaining schedule of any ACC team; you can see them losing their last four games - 3 roads games vs. Wake, Virginia, and Miami, and a home game vs. Clemson;  I think they'll beat Clemson and limp to an 8-8 finish in the conference; the selection committee heavily weighs how a team played in their last 10 games, so they may be in trouble at 8-8; that loss to the Hokies was huge; will their win against Carolina get them in, or will early season losses at home to American and Ohio relegate the Terps to the NIT? with 8 regular season wins it will probably take a win in the ACC tournament to get Maryland into the NCAA.

Miami - I blogged about this last week, but Miami controls their own destiny; win against Duke was huge; they have 3 more winnable games left against Maryland, BC, and Virginia, a winnable road game against FSU, and a big big game at Clemson; simply winning at home gets the Canes to 8-8, and taking the Noles in the finale gets them to 9 wins and into the NCAA tournament; it also means NC-native Frank Haith is the ACC coach of the year. 

Georgia Tech - should win their last 3 homes games and finish 7-9.

Virginia Tech - Seth Greenberg would be coach of the year if not for Haith, assuming of course that VPI wins their last 3 home games against Georgia Tech, Boston College and Wake; their one road game is winnable too, against Clemson; they should finish 3-1 and with 9 wins in the conference; 9 isn't always the magic number, but it should get them in.

Virginia - I thought they'd go 11-5 this year, but instead will likely finish at 5-11 after going 3-2 the rest of the way; I do have them upsetting Duke in Charlottesville, though.

NCSU - only one winnable game on their schedule against FSU in Raleigh; Pack will finish the season in last place as one of four 5-11 ACC squads while Herb Sendek returns to the NCAA tournament as coach of Arizona State.

Wake Forest - another great story a la Miami and the Hokies; Gaudio could win coach of the year as sentimental choice and with 8 conference wins; the Deacons are great at home but bad on the road; if that pattern persists they will finish at 8-8 and on the same bubble as Maryland; will Duke win get them in? huge game looming @ Virginia Tech; like Maryland, they probably need a win in the ACC tournament to secure an invitation to the big dance.

Clemson - if they win their remaining two home games - against Miami and Virginia Tech - they get to 9 wins and in; road games versus Maryland and Georgia Tech are also winnable.

Duke - should finish with 12 wins even with an upset loss to Virginia; I have Carolina beating them for the third year in a row in Cameron to end the season.

Carolina - I see the Heels running the table behind Hansbrough and Q, with Lawson returning to burn the Devils in Durham.

So my final standings are:

UNC 14-2

Duke 12-4

Clemson 9-7

Va Tech 9-7

Miami 9-7

Maryland 8-8

Wake 8-8

Ga Tech 7-9

BC, FSU, 

NCSU, Virginia 5-11

Huge games left:

Maryland at Miami - TODAY

Miami at Clemson - Feb. 27

Wake at Georgia Tech - Mar 1

Clemson at Maryland - Mar 2

Wake at Virginia Tech - Mar 4

Miami at FSU - Mar 8

Carolina at Duke - Mar 8

Maryland at Virginia - Mar 9