Take 2 Clemsons and Call Me in the Morning

When it comes to Carolina basketball, there is nothing like Clemson.  Once upon a time, Carolina was a school of unbelievable streaks: 20-win seasons, top-3 finishes in the ACC regular season, sweet 16 trips. Our friend Matt Doherty ended most of our most vaunted streaks (with some help from Boston College's Bill Curley).

The one that endures is our winning streak against the ACC's original football school, the Clemson Tigers. Last night's win leaves Clemson 0-forever versus Carolina.  Perhaps the most inexplicable record in sports is Carolina's 54-0 lifetime record at home versus Clem(p)son. 

Almost as inexplicable was the way the Heels stunk up the joint versus Georgia Tech on Sunday night.  After displays of toughness and determination in their previous 2 conference games the Heels displayed neither in Atlanta. They also could not do little things like catch a pass, let alone make a shot. Inexplicable that any Division I athlete, let alone a Carolina recruit, could not catch a pass but that's what happened on Sunday night.

The good news is last night the Heels righted many off those wrongs.  Perhaps best of all Carolina did not trail by double figures in this game for the first time in four games.  The Heels came out much more focused, with much more energy.

That may have something to do with Kendall Marshall replacing Larry Drew II in the starting line up. That was certainly part of it; Marshall was no Ty Lawson but the Heels did score 46 points in the first half - and did not fall behind.

Marshall did his part, but the Heels were led in the first half by Jon Henson and Reggie Bullock.  Bullock got major minutes due to a pneumothorax issue with Leslie McDonald. Not only did Bullock score 16 points in the first half, he got them as a result of playing a complete floor game. Bullock did hit 3 three-pointers but he also played the passing lanes and created - scored off of - Clemson turnovers.

Playing the passing lanes was emblematic of a more aggressive defensive effort by the Heels. Particularly late, the Heels really ratcheted up their defense and as a result Clemson only scored 2 points in the final seven minutes.

Also on display late was the toughness the Heels demonstrated in their wins over Virginia and Virginia Tech.  For most of the game the Heels had a working lead of 4 to 8 points but the Tigers fought back time after time, tying the game at 63 with seven minutes left.   That's when the Heels started making plays. 

Down the stretch Barnes made another big three and had a important defensive board, Marshall made free throws, there was a key tip-in by Henson,  and Zeller had two monster offensive rebounds.  

So overall a pretty satisfying game, one that makes us 3-1 in the conference.  We didn't get behind early, Bullock and Henson made shots, and the Heels got tough late to win.  Thanks Clemson!

And GO HEELS!

Few more Heels notes:

• This is Henson's team now.   Used to be Zeller's.  Psycho Z is still playing well, but Henson is consistently making plays on offense and defense (everywhere but the free throw line).  We get much worse when he is not on the floor.
• Zeller needs to get more touches.  In the last two games he's only taken 11 shots.  Maybe teams are keying on him more, and Henson is benefiting as a result.  But I wish we could be more patient on offense and get Zeller more touches and shots.
• I was impressed by Larry Drew II.  Coming off the bench he was more Bobby Fraser 2006 than his usual Adam Boone.  He attacked the basket and played some good d, too.  And he didn't sulk.  Props to LDII.
• Bullock finally snapped out of his parliament-sized funk last night.  Like Barnes, he's had trouble losing himself in the game but last night he finally did - and scored 16 points in the first half.
• Barnes keeps tantalizing. He is clearly skilled but still seems to be thinking too much out there.  I like that he has been taking the ball to the rack more, and seems to have improved as a defender.
•  After 3 games in 6 days the Heels are now off until their January 26 visit to the U. 

Bad Week For the ACC Gets Worse

First, the two best teams in the conference - Georgia Tech and Clemson - both lost to mediocre, in-state SEC rivals in football.

Then, for the first time in the 11 year history of the event, the conference lost the ACC-Big 10 challenge in basketball. 

Carolina did its part, handily dispatching Michigan State. And kudos to Maryland and especially Boston College for winning road games. The Eagles beat a ranked Michigan team, as did Miami in defeating Minnesota in Coral Gables. Virginia Tech also won a road game, but against a pretty bad Iowa squad.

But all six of the games the ACC lost were bad losses. Duke lost on the road to a good Wisconsin team. But the Badgers, not exactly a running team, looked quicker than the Blue Devils. What's up with that?

Sure, Virginia is rebuilding but how can you lose at home to Penn State. Terrible.

Northwestern is supposed to be decent this year but it's still a team NC State should  have  handled since the game was in Raleigh.

The only semi-legit losses - SEMI - were by FSU and Wake Forest.

Florida State lost to a good Ohio State team on the road. That's to be expected from FSU; no matter how talented the Seminoles NEVER ever seem to rise to the challenge (see last year's ACC tournament final, their loss in the first round of the NCAA tournament, etc.).

Considering that Wake Forest was coming off a home loss to William and Mary (a team of two players!), losing to a top-10 team like Purdue is almost a moral victory. Wake fans must be getting nervous. This team has stunk since February. The Dino Gaudio honeymoon is clearly over.

But the worst loss by far was by Clemson. The Tigers blew a 23-point second half lead at home in losing to half-way decent Illinois. Down the stretch Clemson did not do a good job of getting the ball to Trevor Booker, and generally panicked on their home court in the face of the Illini's press and urgent play. Horrible.

Losing the ACC-Big 10 challenge for the first time is not the end of the world but is disappointing nonetheless. With the Big East expected to have a down year the Big 10 now has the upper hand in the mythical battle for the title of the strongest conference in America.

But this year's challenge could have real consequences for ACC bubble teams.  Clemson in particular should make sure and win 9 or 10 ACC games; ditto for Florida State, who has lost both of its important non-conference games (Ohio State and Florida). 

On the other hand, Boston College and Miami really helped themselves so in the end it may even out. The ACC could still receive 6 and maybe 7 bids: Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Georgia Tech (who defeated Sienna last night), Clemson, and one or two from the group of FSU/UM/BC/Wake Forest).

World Cup Draw is Tomorrow (Dec. 4th)

The draw for the 2010 World Cup is tomorrow and will be shown live on ESPN.  Four pots will be used to determine the eight, four-team, groups.

Pot 1 consists of the seven highest-seeded teams (Brazil, Spain, Argentina, England, Germany, Netherlands, Italy) plus host South Africa. The US is in pot 2, a mix of Asian and North American teams, and Greece is in Pot 4, European teams. Pot 3 is Africa and South America.

To me, the best case scenario for the U.S. is: South Africa, the weakest team in Pot 1, by far; Uruguay or Algeria, the only two bad teams in Pot 2; and Slovakia from Pot 3. But according to the Washington Post and ESPN, Switzerland would be the best match up for us for the European pot.

I really hope that Greece and the US are in separate groups. I would love to see the U.S. play - and defeat - Greece in the final.  What are the odds of that?

Best case for Greece is to draw: South Africa; North Korea, arguably the worst team in the World Cup; and Algeria.

Worst case for both teams is to draw Brazil and a team like Ivory Coast from Pot 3.

Anyway, tune in tomorrow.

Heels Tame Tigers

Great game by the Heels last night against Clemson.  Great doesn't really describe it.  The blow-out win inspired feelings of joy for me.  

Joy in seeing Ellington firmly back on track; he was the best player on the floor last night and played a complete game. 

Joy in seeing Ty Lawson play great defense and be aggressive on offense. 

Joy at seeing the Heels clamp down on defense, led once again by my man Danny Green (7 points, 5 boards, 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks). 

Joy at the level of play from Carolina's wings, play so strong that Hansbrough's 20 and 10 were afterthoughts.

Joy at seeing Deon Thompson's scoring 15 points after a long slump.

Joy joy joy at watching some great Carolina basketball.  The Heels appear to be back in full Michigan State game form.  

Bring on whomever is next!

A Few Random Notes

• I'm not concerned about the bench scoring from the Heels.  I think in Davis, Frasor, Drew II, and Graves we have enough bench.  Graves is the best scorer on the list, and Davis good enough down low to be a threat on offense.
• Sad isn't the word, but I feel bad for Bobby Frasor.  His freshmen year he was fast and aggressive and did a great job directing a running offense.  Who can forget his play down the stretch at Duke in 2006?  But injuries have really slowed him down and instead of taking it to the hole Frasor spends a lot of time on the perimeter. I liked it when Roy gave him some minutes at the point versus Miami in the first half, but feel bad that injuries derailed a promising career at Carolina.
• One last Inauguration Day note.  Today was the anniversary of Roe v. Wade, a day when DC swells with anti-choice 'activists.'  I typed 'activists' because most of the crowd, at least 60 percent, was made up of high school and middle school kids from regional Catholic schools.  It seemed more like a field trip than a rally. Coming two days after inauguration day it's hard not to make comparisons between the two groups. The two most obvious differences for me were: 1) the Obama crowd was much more diverse in terms of ethnicity and age; 2) more striking, today's crowd seemed bored and was going through the motions, whereas the crowd on Inauguration Day was joyous.

Lot of that going around.

Big Games Loom As ACC Season Goes to the Wire

There are quite a few huge games left in the last 4 weeks of the ACC regular season.  This looked like a down year for the ACC.  Despite possessing the best RPI in the country, and dominating the ACC-Big 10 challenge for the seventh year in a row, for weeks it looked like the ACC would be a four and at best a five bid league in terms of the NCAA tournament.

But three games last week changed that.  Duke's two loses to Wake and Miami have placed those teams firmly on the bubble.  And Virginia Tech's impressive bounce back win - on the road - over Maryland coupled with their very favorable schedule places the Hokies back in contention.  

All of a sudden, one can envision a scenario where the ACC gets seven teams into the field of 65.

Here is my team-by-team breakdown - in no particular order - of the remainder of the ACC regular season (courtesy of my visit to the eye doctor on Friday; I was there for two hours and between tests was able to forecast the remainder of the season):

FSU: despite a nice win over Clemson last week I think the Noles will finish by going 1-3 and 5-11 overall; they only have one more winnable game on the schedule, at home vs. BC, with a huge game vs. Miami in Tallahassee to the last regular season game for FSU; that game will mean more to UM so I have the Canes winning that tilt.

BC: only one winnable game left on their schedule, against Georgia Tech at home; after a nice start to the ACC season I think they'll finish at 5-11.

Maryland: the Terps have the most challenging remaining schedule of any ACC team; you can see them losing their last four games - 3 roads games vs. Wake, Virginia, and Miami, and a home game vs. Clemson;  I think they'll beat Clemson and limp to an 8-8 finish in the conference; the selection committee heavily weighs how a team played in their last 10 games, so they may be in trouble at 8-8; that loss to the Hokies was huge; will their win against Carolina get them in, or will early season losses at home to American and Ohio relegate the Terps to the NIT? with 8 regular season wins it will probably take a win in the ACC tournament to get Maryland into the NCAA.

Miami - I blogged about this last week, but Miami controls their own destiny; win against Duke was huge; they have 3 more winnable games left against Maryland, BC, and Virginia, a winnable road game against FSU, and a big big game at Clemson; simply winning at home gets the Canes to 8-8, and taking the Noles in the finale gets them to 9 wins and into the NCAA tournament; it also means NC-native Frank Haith is the ACC coach of the year. 

Georgia Tech - should win their last 3 homes games and finish 7-9.

Virginia Tech - Seth Greenberg would be coach of the year if not for Haith, assuming of course that VPI wins their last 3 home games against Georgia Tech, Boston College and Wake; their one road game is winnable too, against Clemson; they should finish 3-1 and with 9 wins in the conference; 9 isn't always the magic number, but it should get them in.

Virginia - I thought they'd go 11-5 this year, but instead will likely finish at 5-11 after going 3-2 the rest of the way; I do have them upsetting Duke in Charlottesville, though.

NCSU - only one winnable game on their schedule against FSU in Raleigh; Pack will finish the season in last place as one of four 5-11 ACC squads while Herb Sendek returns to the NCAA tournament as coach of Arizona State.

Wake Forest - another great story a la Miami and the Hokies; Gaudio could win coach of the year as sentimental choice and with 8 conference wins; the Deacons are great at home but bad on the road; if that pattern persists they will finish at 8-8 and on the same bubble as Maryland; will Duke win get them in? huge game looming @ Virginia Tech; like Maryland, they probably need a win in the ACC tournament to secure an invitation to the big dance.

Clemson - if they win their remaining two home games - against Miami and Virginia Tech - they get to 9 wins and in; road games versus Maryland and Georgia Tech are also winnable.

Duke - should finish with 12 wins even with an upset loss to Virginia; I have Carolina beating them for the third year in a row in Cameron to end the season.

Carolina - I see the Heels running the table behind Hansbrough and Q, with Lawson returning to burn the Devils in Durham.

So my final standings are:

UNC 14-2

Duke 12-4

Clemson 9-7

Va Tech 9-7

Miami 9-7

Maryland 8-8

Wake 8-8

Ga Tech 7-9

BC, FSU, 

NCSU, Virginia 5-11

Huge games left:

Maryland at Miami - TODAY

Miami at Clemson - Feb. 27

Wake at Georgia Tech - Mar 1

Clemson at Maryland - Mar 2

Wake at Virginia Tech - Mar 4

Miami at FSU - Mar 8

Carolina at Duke - Mar 8

Maryland at Virginia - Mar 9