Big Games Loom As ACC Season Goes to the Wire

There are quite a few huge games left in the last 4 weeks of the ACC regular season.  This looked like a down year for the ACC.  Despite possessing the best RPI in the country, and dominating the ACC-Big 10 challenge for the seventh year in a row, for weeks it looked like the ACC would be a four and at best a five bid league in terms of the NCAA tournament.

But three games last week changed that.  Duke's two loses to Wake and Miami have placed those teams firmly on the bubble.  And Virginia Tech's impressive bounce back win - on the road - over Maryland coupled with their very favorable schedule places the Hokies back in contention.  

All of a sudden, one can envision a scenario where the ACC gets seven teams into the field of 65.

Here is my team-by-team breakdown - in no particular order - of the remainder of the ACC regular season (courtesy of my visit to the eye doctor on Friday; I was there for two hours and between tests was able to forecast the remainder of the season):

FSU: despite a nice win over Clemson last week I think the Noles will finish by going 1-3 and 5-11 overall; they only have one more winnable game on the schedule, at home vs. BC, with a huge game vs. Miami in Tallahassee to the last regular season game for FSU; that game will mean more to UM so I have the Canes winning that tilt.

BC: only one winnable game left on their schedule, against Georgia Tech at home; after a nice start to the ACC season I think they'll finish at 5-11.

Maryland: the Terps have the most challenging remaining schedule of any ACC team; you can see them losing their last four games - 3 roads games vs. Wake, Virginia, and Miami, and a home game vs. Clemson;  I think they'll beat Clemson and limp to an 8-8 finish in the conference; the selection committee heavily weighs how a team played in their last 10 games, so they may be in trouble at 8-8; that loss to the Hokies was huge; will their win against Carolina get them in, or will early season losses at home to American and Ohio relegate the Terps to the NIT? with 8 regular season wins it will probably take a win in the ACC tournament to get Maryland into the NCAA.

Miami - I blogged about this last week, but Miami controls their own destiny; win against Duke was huge; they have 3 more winnable games left against Maryland, BC, and Virginia, a winnable road game against FSU, and a big big game at Clemson; simply winning at home gets the Canes to 8-8, and taking the Noles in the finale gets them to 9 wins and into the NCAA tournament; it also means NC-native Frank Haith is the ACC coach of the year. 

Georgia Tech - should win their last 3 homes games and finish 7-9.

Virginia Tech - Seth Greenberg would be coach of the year if not for Haith, assuming of course that VPI wins their last 3 home games against Georgia Tech, Boston College and Wake; their one road game is winnable too, against Clemson; they should finish 3-1 and with 9 wins in the conference; 9 isn't always the magic number, but it should get them in.

Virginia - I thought they'd go 11-5 this year, but instead will likely finish at 5-11 after going 3-2 the rest of the way; I do have them upsetting Duke in Charlottesville, though.

NCSU - only one winnable game on their schedule against FSU in Raleigh; Pack will finish the season in last place as one of four 5-11 ACC squads while Herb Sendek returns to the NCAA tournament as coach of Arizona State.

Wake Forest - another great story a la Miami and the Hokies; Gaudio could win coach of the year as sentimental choice and with 8 conference wins; the Deacons are great at home but bad on the road; if that pattern persists they will finish at 8-8 and on the same bubble as Maryland; will Duke win get them in? huge game looming @ Virginia Tech; like Maryland, they probably need a win in the ACC tournament to secure an invitation to the big dance.

Clemson - if they win their remaining two home games - against Miami and Virginia Tech - they get to 9 wins and in; road games versus Maryland and Georgia Tech are also winnable.

Duke - should finish with 12 wins even with an upset loss to Virginia; I have Carolina beating them for the third year in a row in Cameron to end the season.

Carolina - I see the Heels running the table behind Hansbrough and Q, with Lawson returning to burn the Devils in Durham.

So my final standings are:

UNC 14-2

Duke 12-4

Clemson 9-7

Va Tech 9-7

Miami 9-7

Maryland 8-8

Wake 8-8

Ga Tech 7-9

BC, FSU, 

NCSU, Virginia 5-11

Huge games left:

Maryland at Miami - TODAY

Miami at Clemson - Feb. 27

Wake at Georgia Tech - Mar 1

Clemson at Maryland - Mar 2

Wake at Virginia Tech - Mar 4

Miami at FSU - Mar 8

Carolina at Duke - Mar 8

Maryland at Virginia - Mar 9