NBA Finals

Though there will be no Lakers, Celtics or Spurs on the court the NBA Finals should be pretty compelling basketball.

The star players on both teams, namely Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James, have been scintillating of late, both doing what star players are supposed to do: make plays when their teams need them.

Like most people in these united States I did not like the way James left and embarrassed his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers.  But the guy has been pretty impressive in the playoffs.  It's hard to know where to begin in talking about a player as talented - and big - as James.  His size and agility allow him to make impressive basketball plays all over the floor. 

Against the Bulls he blocked shots late, hit big threes, made passes to win game 5 down the stretch - after struggling with his shot for three and a half quarters.  He's physically impressive just standing there, but James' determination and will and mental toughness was more impressive - especially down the stretch.  

As you can tell, I was impressed.

Contrast James' play with Derrick Rose, who was panicky in the last 5 minutes instead of confident and fouled Dwayne Wade as he made a three-point shot late.  I expect his performance in this series - where he lacked confidence in his teammates and could not take over a game by himself  - to help his development.

Coincidentally, the same thing happened to Michael Jordan.  He only started to win championships when he figured out the balancing act between taking over a game and trusting his teammates.  Easy to forget that the Bulls won a couple of championships thanks to big shots by John Paxson and Steve Kerr, guys Jordan found open - and trusted to take and make big shots.

Rose seems like the kind of guy who WILL figure it out - and become a real monster when he does.  But he hasn't yet, and that was evident late in every Bulls loss to the Heat. 

Of course, up till now neither James nor Nowitzki has figured it out either, at least neither have won a championship.  But both guys are playing at an extraordinarily high level.  It will be fun to see if both can keep it up and carry their team to a championship, and thus earn a place in the pantheon of truly elite basketball players.

FYI, in my opinion the list of truly elite basketball players - guys who have won championships and are still dominant is: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and perhaps Dwayne Wade.

[Interesting to see how aging this list is.  If Nowitzki, James, or Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant, win a championship the torch will have been passed.  Shaq should also be on that list, but he's practically retired.]

Therein lies the key to this series: Wade. The Mavs resemble the Bulls in that they have a dominant player with a nice ensemble that plays tough D.  However, if Jason Kidd (who could join the elite list if the Mavs win the title?), Jason Terry, and others on the deep Dallas roster step up they could win the franchise's first championship. 

But will any of those guys play as well as Wade?  Probably not, so though I want to see Brendan Haywood get a ring, it's hard to pick a one-superstar team beating a team with two.  Nowitzki may get enough help from Kidd, Tyson Chandler and others, but with Wade helping James it's hard to see the Heat failing to win their NBA championship. 

But James is the bottom line.  He is playing at such a high level, both mentally and physically, it's folly to pick against him.   

A few more hoops notes, then it's time to leave the coffee shop for work:

• The playoffs have certainly exposed Duke grad Carlos Boozer as a titanic fraud.  He was at his Dookish 'best' last night both in terms of his foul on James and his complete disappearance in a game his team really needed.  I used to think he had a nice game but he seems to have peaked a few years ago and no longer seems worthy of 35 minutes a game.
• One other Duke note: the NCAA announced a rule change that would no longer allow a player to draw a charge by standing under the basket.  As it is now in the NBA, the NCAA will draw a circle under the basket where a defensive player can not stand to draw a charging foul.  That 'strategy' has long been a staple of Duke's philosophy: 'just stand here like a statue and wait for the ball handler to show up'  (in my opinion an un-American 'reward' for inaction).  So if you're wondering, that sound you just heard was Mike Krzyzewski's heart breaking. 
• One more side note about a Mavs-Heat final.  What would be more insufferable? The Heat winning a championship after staging that goofy and childish dance party/press conference to introduce James and Chris Bosh last summer, or the goofy and childish antics of Mark Cuban if the Mavericks win?  Discuss!

Another one bites the dust

I've often used this space to opine that Mike Krzyzewski is NOT a great Xs and Os coach.  He certainly in an excellent recruiter and motivator.  But Duke usually succeeds due to effort and attitude, not necessarily skills and sets.  In fact, their offensive stats are pretty simple.  

Krzyzewski gets his players to play extremely hard and extremely smart, especially on defense. 

But his players often struggle once they leave Durham.  Without Krzyzewski in their ears and in their heads they don't have the skills to fall back on to succeed in the NBA.  The  most successful Duke professional of the K era, Carlos Boozer, had to reinvent himself in the League.  At Duke, he was a back to the basket center; in the NBA he is a face-up smallish forward who has turned into an all star.

The lack of success of the players is also true with ex-assistant coaches.  With the firing of Fayetteville native Jeff Capel, the Coach K coaching tree looks bad.  First Tommy Amaker crashed and burned at two schools in big-time conferences (Seton Hall and Michigan) before finding moderate success at a non-big time conference at Harvard. Quinn Snyder lost AND was embroiled in a recruiting controversy at Missouri.  And now Capel, who only won when Blake Griffin was on campus. 

Johnny Dawkins, losing his way through the Pac 17 at Stanford, is just killing time waiting to join the unemployment line outside of Krzyzewski's office.

All these guys were hired by ADs who assumed they could transfer Duke's style to their campuses.  But you can't duplicate K's motivational skills or emotional work.  And with not many X and O tricks to fall back on, coaches like Amaker, Snyder, Capel and Dawkins fail.  

The 'Carlos Boozer of coaches' is Notre Dame's Mike Bray, who unlike the other Duke coaching alums did NOT play at Duke.  Maybe there is some there there on the sidelines, but ex-players fail to notice it among the shouting, cursing and motivating coming from Coach K.

Quick ACC blog

Interesting games last night in the ACC.  


The marquee game was Duke at Maryland.  I'm not a big General Greivis fan but late in the game, after Duke had asserted itself and taken a second-half lead, he made play after play to lead the Terps to their 12th win in the conference.  


Gary Williams has a right to feel pretty smug.  Two seasons after alums were screaming for his firing and the Post ran a 5-part series about how far Maryland has fallen he's got a team that looks average on paper (of course, games aren't played on paper, they're played on ESPN) in first place in the ACC.  It's easy to forgot how much success he's had in College Park.  


If Carolina doesn't win the ACC tournament I won't mind rooting for Maryland in the NCAA tournament.


Duke, on the other had, seems poised for yet another late season swoon, one I hope picks up momentum on Saturday night against the Heels. One weird feature of Duke basketball lately - since the Shane Battier-Jason Williams juggernaut - has been Krzyzewski's inability to develop any quality depth. As a result Duke teams of recent years always look gassed late in the year.


That seemed to be on display late in the game versus Maryland, where John Scheyer and Nolan Smith missed open shots that they had knocked down earlier in the game. Despite having decent size - Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek and not one but TWO Plumlees - the Blue Devils continue to be a jump-shooting team. And if you have tired legs it's hard to be a good jump shooting team. 


The Plumlees, who seem to be athletic and skilled, only played 22 minutes last night. Seems like you should give them, and back-up point guard Andre Dawkins, more time especially when you consider that Singler played 40 minutes and Scheyer and Smith each played 38.  


Finally, one underreported story that obviously hurts Duke's depth has been the number of transfers lately. I'm assuming most of those are due to Krzyzewski being a demanding task master.  Just in the last 2 seasons Duke has lost 3 players - Elliott Williams (Memphis), Taylor King (Villanova) and Firstname Thompson (Northwestern) - who are contributing at schools playing big time college basketball.


ACCents:

• Add my voice to the chorus of critics who think football-driven expansion has hurt ACC basketball. Last night fewer than 4,000 fans showed up for Virginia's game at Boston College. It was spring break and Boston is a pro-sports town, but still, 4,000 fans?  BC should not be in the ACC.
• Miami made more sense in that the conference already had one Florida member, but they continue to draw flies for basketball, both in Coral Gables and on the road. Miami's game in Chapel Hill was not a sell. That's not the U's fault, but they do not generate ANY basketball buzz and probably never will.
• The only school that made sense to add was Virginia Tech. A geographic fit, natural rival for Virginia, and they have a hoops fan base. Last night they had a sell out for NC State, and almost all the fans stuck around last weekend when a water main break delayed the start of their game versus Maryland by 3 hours. 

Tonight's the Night

I'm convinced that the Heels will turn their season around tonight versus the blue Devils, for a number of reasons:

1. Intensity, which has been a problem at times with this team, should not be an issue in a rivalry game;
2. The 100th anniversary of Carolina basketball is Friday night, and who wants to go into that celebration on a down, we-just-lost-to-Duke note;
3. Marcus Ginyard seems recovered from his injuries, and should shut down Duke's Jon Scheyer;
4. Seniors like Ginyard and Deon Thompson have spent the last four years beating Duke like a drum, and they don't want that to stop;
5. Duke has been pretty weak on the road this year;
6. Carolina is retiring Tyler Hansbrough's number tonight at halftime.

All that will add up to an inspiring and season-saving win for the Heels on that puts us on the road to at least seven wins in the ACC (how pathetic that we are hoping for seven wins in conference?).  GO HEELS!

ACC Preview

With Sierra Club closed for the holidays I've had time to make my fearless predictions for the upcoming ACC basketball season.  As it was last year, and really ever since 'ol Roy returned to Chapel Hill, it appears to be Carolina and Duke at the top, with as usual Clemson - joined this year by FSU - on the periphery.  


Looking back at last year's predictions I accurately predicted 4 out of 12 spots: UNC first; Duke tied for second (I predicted with Clemson but they tied with Wake); Virginia in 11th (at 4-12); Georgia Tech last (they finished 2-12; I predicted 3-13).  I was close with Virginia Tech, who finished at 7-9 and tied for 7th place after I predicted 8-8 and in 6th.


I really missed FSU; I thought they would finish at 6-10 and in 9th place but Leonard Hamilton surprised us all by going 10-6, finishing in 4th place, playing in the ACC tournament finals, and qualifying for the NCAA tournament.


It was kind of the same story with Wake Forest.  I predicted them to finish at 9-7 but their hot start to the ACC resulted in an upset of Carolina and a final record of 11-5.


I thought the U would do better than 7-9 (I picked 9-7).  I must have gotten them mixed up with BC, who I thought would go 7-9 but instead went 9-7.  I also missed Maryland by one game, which turned out to be their late-season upset of the eventual national champs.  The Terps ended up at 7-9 and qualified for the NCAA tournament, while I predicted 6-10


This year could very well mimic last season, with the biggest changes being a rising Georgia Tech and a sinking Boston College.  I underestimated BC last year, and their bad non-conference losses convinced me to do the same this year.  Before I get to my team-by-team break down, here is my predicted order of finish for the 2010 ACC:


Carolina 12-4
Duke 12-4
Clemson 9-7
FSU 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Georgia Tech 8-8
Maryland 7-9
Miami 7-9
Wake 7-9
NCSU 6-10
Boston College 6-10
Virginia 5-11


One huge factor is the unbalanced schedule.  Virginia Tech in particular benefits, as does Wake Forest. Conversely, Georgia Tech and to a lesser degree BC suffer.   The teams that play Virginia and NC State four times are the lucky ones.


Teams


Carolina
Despite playing the toughest schedule in the country - let alone the ACC - Carolina is still a work in progress and has not answered many questions as it heads into conference play.  In Monday's win against Rutgers the Heels were still experimenting with line ups. At different points in the game Carolina featured a small line up: Drew-Strickland-Graves-Thompson-Davis; and a big/huge line up: Drew-Wear-Wear-Zeller-Davis as Roy continues to look for some flow and consistency.  

The good news is Will Graves has been a bit better from the outside, Dexter Strickland has had back-to-back great games, and Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller have developed.  Davis appears to be the key; if he demands the ball and gets a lot of shots, as he did in the nice win over Michigan State, the Heels thrive.  


But Larry Drew is still inconsistent and the entire team continues to be sloppier with the ball than one would expect 13 games into the season. Finally, Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard have been up and down, sometimes from half-to-half let alone game-to-game. Neither have been David Noel, an unrealistic expectation since in 100 years of Carolina hoops there has only been a handful of leaders like the athletic forward from Durham (George Lynch, James Worthy?).


The bright side is Carolina is talented enough, and most of the league mediocre enough, for the Heels to finish in first place at 12-4, at least 11-5.


Duke
I see Duke matching Carolina at 12-4 or 11-5.  Duke - and John Scheyer - has looked good in defeating Gonzaga in Cameron, but struggled against a mediocre Wisconsin team in Madison. Look for the Dukies to mimic that pattern this year as they lose on the road to upper echelon teams like Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and likely Maryland and perhaps even Miami, though I think Carolina's 4-game winning streak at Cameron may end this season.


Clemson
I always pick Clemson third, at least since Oliver Purnell established himself as the third-best coach in the ACC of late (though Gary Williams should be considered the third-best coach since he is one of three current ACC coaches with a national championship).  Trevor Booker is back and Demontez Stitt is more experienced at the point. It's hard to see this team winning less - or more - than 9 games this year.


Florida State
There appears to be talent in Tallahassee despite the graduation of Toney Douglas. The problem is it's sitting next to Leonard Hamilton. Solomon Alabi leads a fairly experienced squad, and the Noles have already stolen a road game at Georgia Tech. Like Clemson, they seem a lock for 9 wins, with winnable games at Maryland and at home versus Georgia Tech.  If they win those two they could finish third with 10 or 11 wins.


Virginia Tech
Perhaps the most intriguing team in the ACC.  A decent amount of talent returning, led by Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. And the Hokies have actually won some tough games so far: at Penn State; at Iowa; and over Georgia on a neutral floor. I have them going 8-8 but they could finish 9-7 with a win at Virginia or at NC State or Boston College.  This team could move up in the standings if they have some luck.


Georgia Tech
Second most intriguing team in the ACC is the Yellow Jackets.  They feature super-freshman Derrick Favors and returnees like Gani Lawal.  The Jackets should finish 8-8 if they win one or two road games (Virginia, but the rematch with FSU in Tallahassee will be huge) and defeat Duke or Carolina in Atlanta.


Maryland
I can't wait for Greivis Vasquez to graduate so I can stop reading his endless variations on the 'us against them' quote in The Post.  Look for the Terps to underachieve again this year and repeat their 7-9 record of a season ago.  Problem for Maryland is they have lost all three of their important non-conference games, to Villanova, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Last year, wins over Michigan and Michigan State helped them qualify at 7-9 for the NCAA tournament. But I don't think they will be so lucky this season.


Miami
The Hurricanes lost Jack McClinton but have a slew of young players and surprisingly have already defeated Minnesota and South Carolina, two decent teams.  If the U beats Duke in the Gables and/or defeats a team like Virginia on the road they could finish with as many as 9 wins.  If they do - with wins over Duke, Minnesota, and the Gamecocks - the Hurricanes should return to the NCAA tournament.


Wake Forest
Hard to gauge the Deacons, who have lost at home to William and Mary but travelled to Spokane and defeated Gonzaga.  Chances are both Dino Gaudio and the Zags are overrated, so I have Wake going 7-9 without any road wins in the ACC, though if they somehow upset the Heels at home or Virginia on the road they could go 8-8.  A number of their road games are winnable - at NC State, at Miami - but I'm cynical about Wake's chances.


NC State
Looks like another down year for the Pack. Things have gotten so bad at State I actually feel sorry for their students and coach Sidney Lowe (well, not their students).  State has defeated Jeff Lebo's average Auburn Tigers and Marquette, but has also lost to Northwestern and a rebuilding Arizona squad.  Looks like another 6 win season for the Wolfpack.


Boston College
The Eagles surprised everyone by winning 9 games last year and defeating Carolina in Chapel Hill.  And they have beaten Michigan on the road this season. But they have also lost to Harvard for the second year in a row, St. Josephs, and to lesser teams like the University of Northern Iowa and Rhode Island (they did beat UMass, so are 1-2 vs. the Atlantic 10).  Like last year, I'm predicting a 6 (maybe 7) win season.


Virginia
The Cavaliers hired Tony Bennett, the defensive-minded coach of Washington State and son of legendary coach Dick Bennett, to clean up after Dave Leitao.  I have a feeling this guy will be severely overmatched in the ACC, especially regarding recruiting.  Virginia has already lost four times, to Penn State - at home - and to average teams like Auburn, South Florida and Johnny Dawkins' Stanford Cardinal.  So Bennett is already 0-2 vs. teams coached by former ACC point guards.  Five wins would be impressive this year for Virginia.


The good news is ACC play is right around the corner, so the speculation and predictions will yield to actual games.  My hope is that my prediction for the Heels comes true, but also that things go the right way for bubble teams such as Virginia Tech and Miami and the ACC gets six or seven teams into the NCAA tournament.  It would also be great if someone other than Carolina went deep into the tournament, especially teams like Clemson or Georgia Tech as a way of showing that the ACC is more than a two-team league.


I hope these predictions spark some commentary, and remember to vote in the www.carolina-hellenicblue.blogspot.com poll, too.


Go Heels!

Heels Sweep Devils; Win Regular Season

In a game that eerily mimicked the win in Cameron in February, Carolina used a great second half to sweep the season series against Duke, winning 79 to 71 on Senior Day in Chapel Hill.

Carolina played an almost nonchalant first half and trailed by one after 20 minutes. As it was in Cameron, Carolina got the ball down low for an early lead, but then allowed Duke to get decent looks. The Devils shot 60 percent in the first half, led by Singler, and as they did in Cameron led at half (this time by only a point).

The Heels may have been a little tight on Senior Day.  Danny Green wasn't aggressive, Ellington missed three free throws, and after his good start Hansbrough went to the bench sucking wind six minutes into the game when he ran out of adrenaline.

In the second half Carolina played much better defense, made some adjustments to keep Henderson and Singler in check, and used two spurts of 7-1 and 7-0 to build a working margin.  Even in the first half, you had a feeling Carolina was going to win this game.  The two spurts ended all doubt.  

Duke cut the lead to 4, 3 and even 2 points at times, but Carolina was in control the entire second half, played nice defense down the stretch to close out the win, and it showed in a tidy win. This season Carolina is a lot better, more talented than Duke.  Simple as that.  

As evidence I offer Deon Thompson.  After Henderson converted a fast break basket - off a missed Danny Green dunk of all things - to cut the lead to 2 with 5 minutes left, Carolina came down and got an old fashioned three-point play from Thompson. Carolina's FIFTH most talented player iced the game for the Heels, as Henderson's basket was the high-water mark for the Republicans from Durham.  After the Thompson basket Carolina converted a Singler miss to an Ellington fast break basket, and the game was over.

Duke's fifth best scoring option is . . .? Lance Thomas? Elliot Williams? David McClure?  Those guys stink. Our fifth guy wins games. Case closed.

And all of Carolina's talent was on display today.  Carolina's top seven players had great games and great moments.

• Tyler Hansbrough was strong and effective as he scored 17 points from all over the floor, including two three-pointers (though the third one he took was a bad shot);
• Ty Lawson was one again unstoppable against Duke.  He nearly had a triple-double with 13, 8 and 9 assists.  More importantly, he dominated the pace and tempo of the game in the second half, and made great decisions on whether to shoot or pass.  His three-point play with a minute and half left iced it for the Heels.
• Ellington had 16 points as he wisely slashed to the basket each time Duke played him to shoot a three. He finished 7 of 10 from the field.
• Thompson complimented his big three-point play with 14 points on 6 of 10 shooting, and almost fouled Singler out in the process.
• Danny Green was Danny Green.  After a tentative first half Green ended up with 12 points - on 5 of 10 shooting - and 4 boards, 3 steals and one big block late.  It seemed as if all of his baskets in the second half were huge.
• Bobby Frasor had a great Senior Day, hitting a three, grabbing some rebounds and tying up Henderson in the last two minutes for a turnover.  Henderson 'only' scored 14 points today and never really took over, and much of that is due to Frasor's defense.  A great way for Frasor to go out.
• Ed Davis got limited minutes but was a beast when he was in, hitting a nifty little hook and a nasty dunk.  And in only 10 minutes he picked up 4 boards.

Finally, Carolina out rebounded Duke 31-22.  Duke is very weak in the middle, and does not match up well with Carolina on the boards or against Hansbrough and Lawson. That's that. A great team effort by a talented bunch added up to a satisfying win over the Dookies.  Carolina has now won 6 of the last 7, and 8 of the last 10 versus Duke. And Krzyzewski's record against Carolina is 32-36. 

GO HEELS!

Pre-Duke; Post A-Rod

Not much to say about Carolina's trip to Durham tomorrow night; ESPN has said enough.  I'm glad that we will have the local, Raycom feed on Wednesday.

I like our chances for an historic win. Lawson and Ellington will be key; not only are they playing great basketball of late but they are matched up with Duke's relatively weak back court.  If they play as they have the last few weeks Lawson and Ellington should dominate.  Duke is weak down low, so expect Hansbrough to have a good game, but the Blue Devils are also weak at the point. Lawson has a 4-1 assist-to-turnover compared to a 1-1 ratio by Nolan Smith.  Paulus started against Miami on Saturday but continues to make bad decisions.  Like I said, with our back court vs. their back court, and Hansbrough versus their donut hole in the middle, I like our chances.

A win would be Carolina's fourth in a row in Cameron, and would make Hansbrough, Danny Green and Bobby Frasor undefeated for their careers in Durham.  It would also be Carolina's sixth win in the last eight games vs. Duke, cementing Roy as the dominant ACC coach, and would keep building on Krzyzewski's losing record against the Heels.  But best of all it would mean that the entire Duke University class of future capitalist pig-dogs and Wall Street raiders of 2009 will graduate without seeing a Blue Devil win at home over Carolina. 

A Rod

I've never been a big fan of Alex Rodriguez, actually I did like him when he was in Seattle.  And I don't get any joy from his embarrassment and stupidity. Ever since he signed that ridiculous contract for $252 million he's been a self-immolating semi-tragic figure.  He's also been a well-documented loser.

For me the real sadness is for baseball.  A-Rod was supposed to be the clean superstar, the one who would eventually break Barry Bonds' record the right - and clean - way. I've more than once from various commentators in the wake of the Maguire and Bonds steroid abuses that the only players whose numbers you should trust are Griffey Jr., Vlad Guerrero and A-Rod.  Not any more.

That is the real sadness; so many of baseball's biggest stars are tainted as is the entire sport.  If you make the list of the 20 biggest baseball stars of the last twenty years that list would probably look like this: Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Clemens, Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Maguire, Bagwell, Pujols, Cal Ripken, Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Chipper, Griffey, Guerrero, Bonds, Sosa, Manny Ramirez, Gwynn,  Mariano Rivera.  Twenty-five percent of that list is tainted, as is arguably the best pitcher, the best out fielder, and the best infielder.

The only good news is that steroids is finally in the rear view mirror, but baseball should be ashamed of itself for looking the other way for so long.   A-Rod is one of 104 players with tainted samples.   I'd release the entire list so baseball can move on and we can finally but a coda on the steroids era. 

Fool's Gold

Carolina turned fool's gold into cash on Tuesday night, hitting 15 of 25 three-point shots on their way to blitzing the Maryland Terrapins 108-91.

Carolina had no trouble making shots, not just threes.  They were unstoppable, and Maryland never put up much resistance. When you hit that many threes, scoring more than 100 points looks effortless.  That's how the Heels' offense looked on Tuesday. The Heels would dribble up court, get an open look, and make it.  Carolina looked like they were playing a high school team, and Maryland could only score when the Tar Heels allowed them to.

Carolina did give up too many points, and Roy was justifiably mad after Maryland scored three times in a row on transition shots AFTER a MADE basket.  But outside of that stretch, I thought the Heels' defense was pretty good.  

Then again, Maryland looked very bad. Lawson had four steals against the Terps and on at least two of them he simply took the ball out of the hands of the player he was guarding.  

A Few More Thoughts

• After failing to get back on defense Roy called a time out, but was so disgusted he did not actually say anything to the team. Interesting to see that Deon Thompson of all people was the vocal leader in that huddle.
• Best part of this game for me was once again Ty Lawson.  Not so much his stats or shooting, but he once again looked confident and efficient.  He has completely buried the mini-slump that plagued him against Boston College and Wake Forest.
• The Michael Copeland Era has finally begun.  The other shoe finally dropped on Marcus Ginyard, as he has taken a medical red shirt for the season.  Coupled with Will Graves' suspension, apparently for not keeping up in the classroom, means that for the first time since his freshman year Copeland will get significant minutes.
• Good piece, in defense of Carolina's defense and about Ginyard and Graves, from Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis.  
• Another interesting week in the ACC as Wake lost again on the road and Clemson looked strong in waxing Duke. Wake looks nothing like the team that took down the Heels a month ago.  Then again, my earlier statement that Wake is overrated may be true.  Carolina lost by only 3 to Wake even though they played terrible, and since then Demon Deacons have lost to Miami and Georgia Tech and barely beat Duke after the Blue Devils played bad, too.
• Clemson looked good last night, especially Trevor Booker.  But Duke also looked terrible and intimidated and completely over matched.  Booker's domination is the most recent reminder that Duke is very weak down low.  But the other issue plaguing Duke is point guard play. Nolan Smith does not set up teammates very well, and Paulus is not much better.  Heels are at Duke Wednesday night.

Heels Get Back on Track

Carolina looked like Carolina again on Thursday in defeating ACC-bottom dweller Virginia in Charlottesville.  Carolina got out to an early lead, and the Cavaliers could only make it a game when Roy went to an odd line up at the 10 minute mark of the first half.

Carolina did the things a classic Tar Heel team does:  feed the post and get good shot, and run every time you get a chance.  The best news from this game was the play of Ty Lawson.  He ran often - quite often the result of nice defensive plays by my man Danny Green - and did a great job feeding Hansbrough.   Psycho-T got lots of touches, lots of trips to the free throw line, and lots of points.  Both Tys looked good, with Hansbrough netting a double-double.

Danny Green had another typical Danny Green game: some steals, some 3s, some great D, and a freak nasty dunk.   His versatility makes his a great Heel, but also an intriguing NBA prospect.  The fact that he makes plays on both ends, and has cut down on bad plays, could translate into a later first round draft pick in the June draft.

So lot of good things to take away from this game, but it's hard to gauge how good a team is when it plays Virginia, a team that lost to Liberty University earlier in the season.   Nonetheless, it was the first ACC win of the season and a road game at that so I shouldn't quibble.

The Heels host the Hurricanes Saturday a 9 pm.  Miami seems to be back up and is on a six-game winning streak.  Their last win was a come from behind victory over lame Maryland on Wednesday.

ACC NOTES

• Big game today between number 3 Wake and number 9 Clemson in the lesser Carolina.   I wonder when the last time there was an ACC game between two top 10 teams and neither team was Duke or Carolina?  I was going to have my research team look that up this morning but he was on a play date.
• Duke just defeated Georgetown in Cameron.  I wasn't rooting for Duke but was glad to see them defeat the Hoyas, and for an ACC win over the overrated Big East. The Big East has good teams, but their strength is more quantity than quality; it's two conferences fused into one.  I also think the Big East benefits from it geographic overlap with New York and Bristol, the two poles of sports of journalism.   And outside of the Huskies, teams from that conference have under achieved in the NCAA tournament of late.
• FSU won two games this week, including on the road at NCSU on Tuesday.  That may say more about how bad State is than how good the Seminoles are, but if FSU finished with 8 wins in the ACC their non-conference schedule may allow them to sneak into the NCAA tournament.
• Maryland went 0-2 on their Florida road trip and may end up challenging Virginia and Georgia Tech for the worst team in the ACC.

ACC Basketball Preview

Hope everyone has had a great holiday season. I've enjoyed the break; we had a good time playing tourists in DC as we visited the Lincoln Memorial, the new Capitol Visitor Center, and the National Zoo in the last 10 days.

But I am really looking forward to two big January happenings: inauguration day; but more urgently the start of the ACC basketball season.

ACC basketball - unlike football, which went 4-6 in bowl games - has had a decent December. So far there have been impressive wins by Carolina and Maryland over Michigan State, Duke trounced Purdue and Xavier (the Musketeers have in turn defeated Virginia Tech and Virginia), Carolina and Miami have beaten Kentucky (Miami winning in Lexington), Carolina won the Maui Invitational, Florida State took down the Gators (and NC State had a great chance to defeat Florida in Gainesville yesterday but choked in the final minute), Virginia Tech and Miami have each beaten St. John's on the road (something Notre Dame could not do) and once again the ACC won their made for TV challenge versus the Big 10.

Those are the highlights. There are some shocking low lights, such as Virginia losing at HOME to Liberty (Jerry Falwell's school). And Georgia Tech losing at home to Penn State and Illinois-Chicago . . . and Virginia, and Florida State losing to Northwestern. In general, Georgia Tech and Virginia did not help the conference at all in December (especially when you consider the Yellow Jackets' blow out loss to LSU in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl in their home town).

So after looking at the ACC schedule, here are my predictions and descriptions for the upcoming men's basketball season.

Carolina 15-1
Clemson 11-5
Duke 11-5
Wake Forest 9-7
Miami 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Boston College 7-9
NC State 7-9
Maryland 6-10
Florida State 6-10
Virginia 4-12
Georgia Tech 3-13

A few observations:

• As you can see, I'm going on a limb and predicting that Carolina will lose a game. As Bill Guthridge once said, "basketball is not an undefeated sport." I think the Heels will take both games versus Duke, giving Hansbrough, Green and company a four-year sweep of the Devils in Cameron. I see the Heels slipping up at either Miami or maybe NC State. The Heels will NOT lose at Wake; one, they are too talented and two, though at home Wake will be coming off an 8 day layoff and will be rusty and red-meat for the Heels.
• Wake will make the NCAA tournament but are probably the most overrated team in the ACC. Unique among the upper echelon teams in the ACC, Wake does not own a win over a top 25 team though they did defeat an unranked Baylor team and just traveled to Utah to defeat Brigham Young (the university, not the person). I think Wake will hold serve at home but will have trouble on the road in the ACC. With at least 9 wins and good talent this team will reassert the Deacons' place in the top half of the ACC, and mark the complete recovery from Chris Paul's early departure and Skip Prosser's untimely death.
• I'm still not that impressed with Duke. I think this team will win it's share of games, but once again they are too dependent on the three-point shot, and once again Krzyzewski has not developed a reliable bench. By the time Duke rolls into Chapel Hill to end the season they will be spent and done, and fodder for a West Virginia or Arizona State or Wisconsin in the second or third round of the NCAA tournament.
• It's hard to call them a dark horse, but Clemson is one of the most intriguing teams in the ACC. Oliver Purnell knows what he is doing, and this squad will improve on last season's record and likely make it to the sweet 16. The Tigers destroyed Miami, in Coral Gables, in December and could easily finish with 12 or 13 wins if they win at Boston College and/or Florida State.
• Those two teams - the Eagles and Seminoles - will have NIT-worthy seasons punctuated by an inability to win on the road. They have talent, but without the adrenaline and energy of a home crowd will struggle to get to 7 wins. A bit more talent or seasoning could get these guys to 9 wins but I don't see it happening.
  
• The U should be better but unlike Clemson I don't see them picking up any big road wins. The Canes will likely win at bottom feeders like Virginia and Georgia Tech but struggle everywhere else. They will be a bubble team all season long, and have to win at either Maryland, BC or NC State to get to 9 wins. But 9 wins in the conference is no guarantee to make the NCAA tournament. Miami only has one quality non-conference win, at Kentucky. Their season may be undone by the loss at home to Ohio State in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, the game in which All-ACC player Jack McClintock was ejected after slapping at a Buckeyes player, a bone-headed move that cost a game and perhaps a season.
• Virginia Tech is another talented bubble team. They'll get to 8 and 8 but like Miami lack a defining non-conference win, and are unlike Miami will probably end up in the NIT. Unlike the Hurricanes, who may stay home due to McClintock's mistake, the Hokies may miss the NCAA tournament due to Xavier hitting a half-court prayer at the buzzer. A win at Duke tonight would help VPI get to 9 wins and give them a signature victory.
• NC State will overachieve to get to 7 wins. With J.J. Hickson gone, Costner and McCauley should rebound and return to the form of two years ago. But State is still very weak at the point and will get to 7 wins primarily due to the fact they play Georgia Tech, Virginia and Boston College 5 times.
• Finally, it will be another rough season in College Park, with lots of howling for Gary Williams' head. This team will be very shaky on the road and limp to 6 wins and the NIT. I have no idea how they defeated Michigan State. Not to jump all over Gary, but it's fascinating to look at all the local talent he has NOT recruited to Maryland. The list is a who's who of young basketball talent: Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Michael Beasley, Ty Lawson, Marcus Ginyard, and that's just off the top of my head and from the last three years! All of those guys played high school ball or grew up in the DC-metro area but never made it up to College Park.
  
• So the ACC should get 5 bids to the NCAA tournament, an underwhelming number of participants. I've blogged this before, but the ACC has yet to benefit from the football-inspired expansion. The football season produced mediocrity, as evidenced by the bowl record of the conference, and the football schools have yet to enhance the hoops side of the ledger. And the unbalanced scheduled - necessitated by a 12-team league - has weakened the value of winning 8 or 9 games in the ACC. Eight wins in conference used to be a lock when the NCAA tournament committee knew a team had played Carolina and Duke four times a season. But those days are gone.

That's how I see the season playing out. Let me know what you think, and Go Heels!