ACC Preview

With Sierra Club closed for the holidays I've had time to make my fearless predictions for the upcoming ACC basketball season.  As it was last year, and really ever since 'ol Roy returned to Chapel Hill, it appears to be Carolina and Duke at the top, with as usual Clemson - joined this year by FSU - on the periphery.  


Looking back at last year's predictions I accurately predicted 4 out of 12 spots: UNC first; Duke tied for second (I predicted with Clemson but they tied with Wake); Virginia in 11th (at 4-12); Georgia Tech last (they finished 2-12; I predicted 3-13).  I was close with Virginia Tech, who finished at 7-9 and tied for 7th place after I predicted 8-8 and in 6th.


I really missed FSU; I thought they would finish at 6-10 and in 9th place but Leonard Hamilton surprised us all by going 10-6, finishing in 4th place, playing in the ACC tournament finals, and qualifying for the NCAA tournament.


It was kind of the same story with Wake Forest.  I predicted them to finish at 9-7 but their hot start to the ACC resulted in an upset of Carolina and a final record of 11-5.


I thought the U would do better than 7-9 (I picked 9-7).  I must have gotten them mixed up with BC, who I thought would go 7-9 but instead went 9-7.  I also missed Maryland by one game, which turned out to be their late-season upset of the eventual national champs.  The Terps ended up at 7-9 and qualified for the NCAA tournament, while I predicted 6-10


This year could very well mimic last season, with the biggest changes being a rising Georgia Tech and a sinking Boston College.  I underestimated BC last year, and their bad non-conference losses convinced me to do the same this year.  Before I get to my team-by-team break down, here is my predicted order of finish for the 2010 ACC:


Carolina 12-4
Duke 12-4
Clemson 9-7
FSU 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Georgia Tech 8-8
Maryland 7-9
Miami 7-9
Wake 7-9
NCSU 6-10
Boston College 6-10
Virginia 5-11


One huge factor is the unbalanced schedule.  Virginia Tech in particular benefits, as does Wake Forest. Conversely, Georgia Tech and to a lesser degree BC suffer.   The teams that play Virginia and NC State four times are the lucky ones.


Teams


Carolina
Despite playing the toughest schedule in the country - let alone the ACC - Carolina is still a work in progress and has not answered many questions as it heads into conference play.  In Monday's win against Rutgers the Heels were still experimenting with line ups. At different points in the game Carolina featured a small line up: Drew-Strickland-Graves-Thompson-Davis; and a big/huge line up: Drew-Wear-Wear-Zeller-Davis as Roy continues to look for some flow and consistency.  

The good news is Will Graves has been a bit better from the outside, Dexter Strickland has had back-to-back great games, and Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller have developed.  Davis appears to be the key; if he demands the ball and gets a lot of shots, as he did in the nice win over Michigan State, the Heels thrive.  


But Larry Drew is still inconsistent and the entire team continues to be sloppier with the ball than one would expect 13 games into the season. Finally, Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard have been up and down, sometimes from half-to-half let alone game-to-game. Neither have been David Noel, an unrealistic expectation since in 100 years of Carolina hoops there has only been a handful of leaders like the athletic forward from Durham (George Lynch, James Worthy?).


The bright side is Carolina is talented enough, and most of the league mediocre enough, for the Heels to finish in first place at 12-4, at least 11-5.


Duke
I see Duke matching Carolina at 12-4 or 11-5.  Duke - and John Scheyer - has looked good in defeating Gonzaga in Cameron, but struggled against a mediocre Wisconsin team in Madison. Look for the Dukies to mimic that pattern this year as they lose on the road to upper echelon teams like Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and likely Maryland and perhaps even Miami, though I think Carolina's 4-game winning streak at Cameron may end this season.


Clemson
I always pick Clemson third, at least since Oliver Purnell established himself as the third-best coach in the ACC of late (though Gary Williams should be considered the third-best coach since he is one of three current ACC coaches with a national championship).  Trevor Booker is back and Demontez Stitt is more experienced at the point. It's hard to see this team winning less - or more - than 9 games this year.


Florida State
There appears to be talent in Tallahassee despite the graduation of Toney Douglas. The problem is it's sitting next to Leonard Hamilton. Solomon Alabi leads a fairly experienced squad, and the Noles have already stolen a road game at Georgia Tech. Like Clemson, they seem a lock for 9 wins, with winnable games at Maryland and at home versus Georgia Tech.  If they win those two they could finish third with 10 or 11 wins.


Virginia Tech
Perhaps the most intriguing team in the ACC.  A decent amount of talent returning, led by Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. And the Hokies have actually won some tough games so far: at Penn State; at Iowa; and over Georgia on a neutral floor. I have them going 8-8 but they could finish 9-7 with a win at Virginia or at NC State or Boston College.  This team could move up in the standings if they have some luck.


Georgia Tech
Second most intriguing team in the ACC is the Yellow Jackets.  They feature super-freshman Derrick Favors and returnees like Gani Lawal.  The Jackets should finish 8-8 if they win one or two road games (Virginia, but the rematch with FSU in Tallahassee will be huge) and defeat Duke or Carolina in Atlanta.


Maryland
I can't wait for Greivis Vasquez to graduate so I can stop reading his endless variations on the 'us against them' quote in The Post.  Look for the Terps to underachieve again this year and repeat their 7-9 record of a season ago.  Problem for Maryland is they have lost all three of their important non-conference games, to Villanova, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Last year, wins over Michigan and Michigan State helped them qualify at 7-9 for the NCAA tournament. But I don't think they will be so lucky this season.


Miami
The Hurricanes lost Jack McClinton but have a slew of young players and surprisingly have already defeated Minnesota and South Carolina, two decent teams.  If the U beats Duke in the Gables and/or defeats a team like Virginia on the road they could finish with as many as 9 wins.  If they do - with wins over Duke, Minnesota, and the Gamecocks - the Hurricanes should return to the NCAA tournament.


Wake Forest
Hard to gauge the Deacons, who have lost at home to William and Mary but travelled to Spokane and defeated Gonzaga.  Chances are both Dino Gaudio and the Zags are overrated, so I have Wake going 7-9 without any road wins in the ACC, though if they somehow upset the Heels at home or Virginia on the road they could go 8-8.  A number of their road games are winnable - at NC State, at Miami - but I'm cynical about Wake's chances.


NC State
Looks like another down year for the Pack. Things have gotten so bad at State I actually feel sorry for their students and coach Sidney Lowe (well, not their students).  State has defeated Jeff Lebo's average Auburn Tigers and Marquette, but has also lost to Northwestern and a rebuilding Arizona squad.  Looks like another 6 win season for the Wolfpack.


Boston College
The Eagles surprised everyone by winning 9 games last year and defeating Carolina in Chapel Hill.  And they have beaten Michigan on the road this season. But they have also lost to Harvard for the second year in a row, St. Josephs, and to lesser teams like the University of Northern Iowa and Rhode Island (they did beat UMass, so are 1-2 vs. the Atlantic 10).  Like last year, I'm predicting a 6 (maybe 7) win season.


Virginia
The Cavaliers hired Tony Bennett, the defensive-minded coach of Washington State and son of legendary coach Dick Bennett, to clean up after Dave Leitao.  I have a feeling this guy will be severely overmatched in the ACC, especially regarding recruiting.  Virginia has already lost four times, to Penn State - at home - and to average teams like Auburn, South Florida and Johnny Dawkins' Stanford Cardinal.  So Bennett is already 0-2 vs. teams coached by former ACC point guards.  Five wins would be impressive this year for Virginia.


The good news is ACC play is right around the corner, so the speculation and predictions will yield to actual games.  My hope is that my prediction for the Heels comes true, but also that things go the right way for bubble teams such as Virginia Tech and Miami and the ACC gets six or seven teams into the NCAA tournament.  It would also be great if someone other than Carolina went deep into the tournament, especially teams like Clemson or Georgia Tech as a way of showing that the ACC is more than a two-team league.


I hope these predictions spark some commentary, and remember to vote in the www.carolina-hellenicblue.blogspot.com poll, too.


Go Heels!

Fool's Gold

Carolina turned fool's gold into cash on Tuesday night, hitting 15 of 25 three-point shots on their way to blitzing the Maryland Terrapins 108-91.

Carolina had no trouble making shots, not just threes.  They were unstoppable, and Maryland never put up much resistance. When you hit that many threes, scoring more than 100 points looks effortless.  That's how the Heels' offense looked on Tuesday. The Heels would dribble up court, get an open look, and make it.  Carolina looked like they were playing a high school team, and Maryland could only score when the Tar Heels allowed them to.

Carolina did give up too many points, and Roy was justifiably mad after Maryland scored three times in a row on transition shots AFTER a MADE basket.  But outside of that stretch, I thought the Heels' defense was pretty good.  

Then again, Maryland looked very bad. Lawson had four steals against the Terps and on at least two of them he simply took the ball out of the hands of the player he was guarding.  

A Few More Thoughts

• After failing to get back on defense Roy called a time out, but was so disgusted he did not actually say anything to the team. Interesting to see that Deon Thompson of all people was the vocal leader in that huddle.
• Best part of this game for me was once again Ty Lawson.  Not so much his stats or shooting, but he once again looked confident and efficient.  He has completely buried the mini-slump that plagued him against Boston College and Wake Forest.
• The Michael Copeland Era has finally begun.  The other shoe finally dropped on Marcus Ginyard, as he has taken a medical red shirt for the season.  Coupled with Will Graves' suspension, apparently for not keeping up in the classroom, means that for the first time since his freshman year Copeland will get significant minutes.
• Good piece, in defense of Carolina's defense and about Ginyard and Graves, from Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis.  
• Another interesting week in the ACC as Wake lost again on the road and Clemson looked strong in waxing Duke. Wake looks nothing like the team that took down the Heels a month ago.  Then again, my earlier statement that Wake is overrated may be true.  Carolina lost by only 3 to Wake even though they played terrible, and since then Demon Deacons have lost to Miami and Georgia Tech and barely beat Duke after the Blue Devils played bad, too.
• Clemson looked good last night, especially Trevor Booker.  But Duke also looked terrible and intimidated and completely over matched.  Booker's domination is the most recent reminder that Duke is very weak down low.  But the other issue plaguing Duke is point guard play. Nolan Smith does not set up teammates very well, and Paulus is not much better.  Heels are at Duke Wednesday night.

ACC Basketball Preview

Hope everyone has had a great holiday season. I've enjoyed the break; we had a good time playing tourists in DC as we visited the Lincoln Memorial, the new Capitol Visitor Center, and the National Zoo in the last 10 days.

But I am really looking forward to two big January happenings: inauguration day; but more urgently the start of the ACC basketball season.

ACC basketball - unlike football, which went 4-6 in bowl games - has had a decent December. So far there have been impressive wins by Carolina and Maryland over Michigan State, Duke trounced Purdue and Xavier (the Musketeers have in turn defeated Virginia Tech and Virginia), Carolina and Miami have beaten Kentucky (Miami winning in Lexington), Carolina won the Maui Invitational, Florida State took down the Gators (and NC State had a great chance to defeat Florida in Gainesville yesterday but choked in the final minute), Virginia Tech and Miami have each beaten St. John's on the road (something Notre Dame could not do) and once again the ACC won their made for TV challenge versus the Big 10.

Those are the highlights. There are some shocking low lights, such as Virginia losing at HOME to Liberty (Jerry Falwell's school). And Georgia Tech losing at home to Penn State and Illinois-Chicago . . . and Virginia, and Florida State losing to Northwestern. In general, Georgia Tech and Virginia did not help the conference at all in December (especially when you consider the Yellow Jackets' blow out loss to LSU in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl in their home town).

So after looking at the ACC schedule, here are my predictions and descriptions for the upcoming men's basketball season.

Carolina 15-1
Clemson 11-5
Duke 11-5
Wake Forest 9-7
Miami 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Boston College 7-9
NC State 7-9
Maryland 6-10
Florida State 6-10
Virginia 4-12
Georgia Tech 3-13

A few observations:

• As you can see, I'm going on a limb and predicting that Carolina will lose a game. As Bill Guthridge once said, "basketball is not an undefeated sport." I think the Heels will take both games versus Duke, giving Hansbrough, Green and company a four-year sweep of the Devils in Cameron. I see the Heels slipping up at either Miami or maybe NC State. The Heels will NOT lose at Wake; one, they are too talented and two, though at home Wake will be coming off an 8 day layoff and will be rusty and red-meat for the Heels.
• Wake will make the NCAA tournament but are probably the most overrated team in the ACC. Unique among the upper echelon teams in the ACC, Wake does not own a win over a top 25 team though they did defeat an unranked Baylor team and just traveled to Utah to defeat Brigham Young (the university, not the person). I think Wake will hold serve at home but will have trouble on the road in the ACC. With at least 9 wins and good talent this team will reassert the Deacons' place in the top half of the ACC, and mark the complete recovery from Chris Paul's early departure and Skip Prosser's untimely death.
• I'm still not that impressed with Duke. I think this team will win it's share of games, but once again they are too dependent on the three-point shot, and once again Krzyzewski has not developed a reliable bench. By the time Duke rolls into Chapel Hill to end the season they will be spent and done, and fodder for a West Virginia or Arizona State or Wisconsin in the second or third round of the NCAA tournament.
• It's hard to call them a dark horse, but Clemson is one of the most intriguing teams in the ACC. Oliver Purnell knows what he is doing, and this squad will improve on last season's record and likely make it to the sweet 16. The Tigers destroyed Miami, in Coral Gables, in December and could easily finish with 12 or 13 wins if they win at Boston College and/or Florida State.
• Those two teams - the Eagles and Seminoles - will have NIT-worthy seasons punctuated by an inability to win on the road. They have talent, but without the adrenaline and energy of a home crowd will struggle to get to 7 wins. A bit more talent or seasoning could get these guys to 9 wins but I don't see it happening.
  
• The U should be better but unlike Clemson I don't see them picking up any big road wins. The Canes will likely win at bottom feeders like Virginia and Georgia Tech but struggle everywhere else. They will be a bubble team all season long, and have to win at either Maryland, BC or NC State to get to 9 wins. But 9 wins in the conference is no guarantee to make the NCAA tournament. Miami only has one quality non-conference win, at Kentucky. Their season may be undone by the loss at home to Ohio State in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, the game in which All-ACC player Jack McClintock was ejected after slapping at a Buckeyes player, a bone-headed move that cost a game and perhaps a season.
• Virginia Tech is another talented bubble team. They'll get to 8 and 8 but like Miami lack a defining non-conference win, and are unlike Miami will probably end up in the NIT. Unlike the Hurricanes, who may stay home due to McClintock's mistake, the Hokies may miss the NCAA tournament due to Xavier hitting a half-court prayer at the buzzer. A win at Duke tonight would help VPI get to 9 wins and give them a signature victory.
• NC State will overachieve to get to 7 wins. With J.J. Hickson gone, Costner and McCauley should rebound and return to the form of two years ago. But State is still very weak at the point and will get to 7 wins primarily due to the fact they play Georgia Tech, Virginia and Boston College 5 times.
• Finally, it will be another rough season in College Park, with lots of howling for Gary Williams' head. This team will be very shaky on the road and limp to 6 wins and the NIT. I have no idea how they defeated Michigan State. Not to jump all over Gary, but it's fascinating to look at all the local talent he has NOT recruited to Maryland. The list is a who's who of young basketball talent: Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Michael Beasley, Ty Lawson, Marcus Ginyard, and that's just off the top of my head and from the last three years! All of those guys played high school ball or grew up in the DC-metro area but never made it up to College Park.
  
• So the ACC should get 5 bids to the NCAA tournament, an underwhelming number of participants. I've blogged this before, but the ACC has yet to benefit from the football-inspired expansion. The football season produced mediocrity, as evidenced by the bowl record of the conference, and the football schools have yet to enhance the hoops side of the ledger. And the unbalanced scheduled - necessitated by a 12-team league - has weakened the value of winning 8 or 9 games in the ACC. Eight wins in conference used to be a lock when the NCAA tournament committee knew a team had played Carolina and Duke four times a season. But those days are gone.

That's how I see the season playing out. Let me know what you think, and Go Heels!