Looking back at last year's predictions I accurately predicted 4 out of 12 spots: UNC first; Duke tied for second (I predicted with Clemson but they tied with Wake); Virginia in 11th (at 4-12); Georgia Tech last (they finished 2-12; I predicted 3-13). I was close with Virginia Tech, who finished at 7-9 and tied for 7th place after I predicted 8-8 and in 6th.
I really missed FSU; I thought they would finish at 6-10 and in 9th place but Leonard Hamilton surprised us all by going 10-6, finishing in 4th place, playing in the ACC tournament finals, and qualifying for the NCAA tournament.
It was kind of the same story with Wake Forest. I predicted them to finish at 9-7 but their hot start to the ACC resulted in an upset of Carolina and a final record of 11-5.
I thought the U would do better than 7-9 (I picked 9-7). I must have gotten them mixed up with BC, who I thought would go 7-9 but instead went 9-7. I also missed Maryland by one game, which turned out to be their late-season upset of the eventual national champs. The Terps ended up at 7-9 and qualified for the NCAA tournament, while I predicted 6-10
This year could very well mimic last season, with the biggest changes being a rising Georgia Tech and a sinking Boston College. I underestimated BC last year, and their bad non-conference losses convinced me to do the same this year. Before I get to my team-by-team break down, here is my predicted order of finish for the 2010 ACC:
Carolina 12-4
Duke 12-4
Clemson 9-7
FSU 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Georgia Tech 8-8
Maryland 7-9
Miami 7-9
Wake 7-9
NCSU 6-10
Boston College 6-10
Virginia 5-11
One huge factor is the unbalanced schedule. Virginia Tech in particular benefits, as does Wake Forest. Conversely, Georgia Tech and to a lesser degree BC suffer. The teams that play Virginia and NC State four times are the lucky ones.
Teams
Carolina
Despite playing the toughest schedule in the country - let alone the ACC - Carolina is still a work in progress and has not answered many questions as it heads into conference play. In Monday's win against Rutgers the Heels were still experimenting with line ups. At different points in the game Carolina featured a small line up: Drew-Strickland-Graves-Thompson-Davis; and a big/huge line up: Drew-Wear-Wear-Zeller-Davis as Roy continues to look for some flow and consistency.
But Larry Drew is still inconsistent and the entire team continues to be sloppier with the ball than one would expect 13 games into the season. Finally, Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard have been up and down, sometimes from half-to-half let alone game-to-game. Neither have been David Noel, an unrealistic expectation since in 100 years of Carolina hoops there has only been a handful of leaders like the athletic forward from Durham (George Lynch, James Worthy?).
The bright side is Carolina is talented enough, and most of the league mediocre enough, for the Heels to finish in first place at 12-4, at least 11-5.
Duke
I see Duke matching Carolina at 12-4 or 11-5. Duke - and John Scheyer - has looked good in defeating Gonzaga in Cameron, but struggled against a mediocre Wisconsin team in Madison. Look for the Dukies to mimic that pattern this year as they lose on the road to upper echelon teams like Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and likely Maryland and perhaps even Miami, though I think Carolina's 4-game winning streak at Cameron may end this season.
Clemson
I always pick Clemson third, at least since Oliver Purnell established himself as the third-best coach in the ACC of late (though Gary Williams should be considered the third-best coach since he is one of three current ACC coaches with a national championship). Trevor Booker is back and Demontez Stitt is more experienced at the point. It's hard to see this team winning less - or more - than 9 games this year.
Florida State
There appears to be talent in Tallahassee despite the graduation of Toney Douglas. The problem is it's sitting next to Leonard Hamilton. Solomon Alabi leads a fairly experienced squad, and the Noles have already stolen a road game at Georgia Tech. Like Clemson, they seem a lock for 9 wins, with winnable games at Maryland and at home versus Georgia Tech. If they win those two they could finish third with 10 or 11 wins.
Virginia Tech
Perhaps the most intriguing team in the ACC. A decent amount of talent returning, led by Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. And the Hokies have actually won some tough games so far: at Penn State; at Iowa; and over Georgia on a neutral floor. I have them going 8-8 but they could finish 9-7 with a win at Virginia or at NC State or Boston College. This team could move up in the standings if they have some luck.
Georgia Tech
Second most intriguing team in the ACC is the Yellow Jackets. They feature super-freshman Derrick Favors and returnees like Gani Lawal. The Jackets should finish 8-8 if they win one or two road games (Virginia, but the rematch with FSU in Tallahassee will be huge) and defeat Duke or Carolina in Atlanta.
Maryland
I can't wait for Greivis Vasquez to graduate so I can stop reading his endless variations on the 'us against them' quote in The Post. Look for the Terps to underachieve again this year and repeat their 7-9 record of a season ago. Problem for Maryland is they have lost all three of their important non-conference games, to Villanova, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Last year, wins over Michigan and Michigan State helped them qualify at 7-9 for the NCAA tournament. But I don't think they will be so lucky this season.
Miami
The Hurricanes lost Jack McClinton but have a slew of young players and surprisingly have already defeated Minnesota and South Carolina, two decent teams. If the U beats Duke in the Gables and/or defeats a team like Virginia on the road they could finish with as many as 9 wins. If they do - with wins over Duke, Minnesota, and the Gamecocks - the Hurricanes should return to the NCAA tournament.
Wake Forest
Hard to gauge the Deacons, who have lost at home to William and Mary but travelled to Spokane and defeated Gonzaga. Chances are both Dino Gaudio and the Zags are overrated, so I have Wake going 7-9 without any road wins in the ACC, though if they somehow upset the Heels at home or Virginia on the road they could go 8-8. A number of their road games are winnable - at NC State, at Miami - but I'm cynical about Wake's chances.
NC State
Looks like another down year for the Pack. Things have gotten so bad at State I actually feel sorry for their students and coach Sidney Lowe (well, not their students). State has defeated Jeff Lebo's average Auburn Tigers and Marquette, but has also lost to Northwestern and a rebuilding Arizona squad. Looks like another 6 win season for the Wolfpack.
Boston College
The Eagles surprised everyone by winning 9 games last year and defeating Carolina in Chapel Hill. And they have beaten Michigan on the road this season. But they have also lost to Harvard for the second year in a row, St. Josephs, and to lesser teams like the University of Northern Iowa and Rhode Island (they did beat UMass, so are 1-2 vs. the Atlantic 10). Like last year, I'm predicting a 6 (maybe 7) win season.
Virginia
The Cavaliers hired Tony Bennett, the defensive-minded coach of Washington State and son of legendary coach Dick Bennett, to clean up after Dave Leitao. I have a feeling this guy will be severely overmatched in the ACC, especially regarding recruiting. Virginia has already lost four times, to Penn State - at home - and to average teams like Auburn, South Florida and Johnny Dawkins' Stanford Cardinal. So Bennett is already 0-2 vs. teams coached by former ACC point guards. Five wins would be impressive this year for Virginia.
The good news is ACC play is right around the corner, so the speculation and predictions will yield to actual games. My hope is that my prediction for the Heels comes true, but also that things go the right way for bubble teams such as Virginia Tech and Miami and the ACC gets six or seven teams into the NCAA tournament. It would also be great if someone other than Carolina went deep into the tournament, especially teams like Clemson or Georgia Tech as a way of showing that the ACC is more than a two-team league.
I hope these predictions spark some commentary, and remember to vote in the www.carolina-hellenicblue.blogspot.com poll, too.
Go Heels!
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