You're Welcome (I think)

It took a few days, and some infuriating losses, but it looks like Natitude may be returning to southwest Washington.  A week after firing Rick Eckstein - 6 hours after I blogged about the need to do just that - the Nats' offense seems to have awaken.

Of course, we also thought that after the Nationals scored 13 runs in support of Stephen Strasburg to finish a four game sweep of the Padres.   So, in the words of the old Negro spiritual:* 'we will see.'

Last week's blog tried to end on an optimistic note, namely that things could change for this team if Bryce Harper got hot and rejuvenated our offense.  Thankfully, that seems to have started happening.  The Nats have won 4 of 5 to reinvograte the team's season, again, and Harper has gone 7 for 16 with two homers, one a walk off to win a must-win game versus the Pirates, and 6 RBIs.

In addition to revisiting last week's blog, I also want to expand on today's Washington Post story by Nats beat writer Adam Kiglore.  The author examines a handful of reasons why this season has been so frustrating and disappointing.

One was the underperformance of the Nationals' left-handed hitters, in particular Adam LaRoche - who to be fair has always been a slow starter and could very well carry the team again as he did in August last season - and Denard Span.  Injuries in general have hurt, in particular to Harper who is also left-handed.

Another reason was the addition of Span turned the team from a bashing, slugging one to a more balanced nine that could manufacture runs with speed and small ball.The common denominator to both diagnoses problems?   No more Michael "Beast Mode" Morse.

Even though he hits from the right side, we do seem to miss his pop, and in hindsight it would have been great to keep him along with Span and not resign an aging LaRoche.  Of course, one can argue that with Zimmerman at third we need a Gold Glove fielder such as LaRoche at first.  And again, LaRoche could get super hot again and save his and our season (though he's 35).

But as much as we may miss the presence of another home run hitter, or if he would be that much better than LaRoche or Span offensively, I think we may actually miss Morse more in the clubhouse.

One other reason Kilgore lays out for the disappointing season is the pressure that comes with being a  'World Series or Bust' favorite.  No one can argue that any of the Nats, with perhaps the exceptions of the stoic Zimmermann and now-stoic Strasburg, and the carefree Gio, have handled that pressure well.   Tight play has defined this squad for most of the season.

One can safely assume that Morse could have helped with that problem. Or solved that problem. Or the personable and likeable and 'Take On Me" loving Morse would have kept that from ever BEING a problem in the first place.  

Beast Mode would have trumped World Series or Bust.

Natitudes and platitudes
* Maybe Mike Rizzo is not a genius.  Regardless of the Morse trade, the descision to not bring back Sean Burnett and rely on Zack Duke as our only lefty in the pen was a mistake. And Kilgore pointed out the the failure to resign Edwin Jackson does not look that good in the rear-view mirror AND cost the team a draft pick.
* Then there is Drew Storen.  Not sure how to assess how any pitcher could come back from the game 5 debacle, but save to say the Nats have not handled him well, and a pitcher who two years ago saved 43 games has regressed all the way to AAA.
*Finally, Kilgore did not mentin the bad ju-ju of picking William Howard Taft as the 5th

Another nice win

After a weekend of nail biters, loud fans and walk-off wins against the dreaded Phillies, things returned to 'normal' last night as our hometown Nationals calmly defeated the somehow-in-first place Diamondbacks 4-1.  It was a relatively ho-hum, by-the-book night of pitching, an excellent start from emerging lefty Ross Detwiler, defense, Ryan Zimmerman making 3 stellar plays, and timely hitting by Jayson Werth, whose three-run homer sealed Detwiler's win.

It was also a tidy game, as the Nats won in about 2 and half hours. It seems like every game Evan and I attend the Nats win and the game is quick (almost always 2 and half hour with not many walks or dead time).  Hard to beat.

Their recent streak - centered around Zimmerman's hot hitting and some nice found-money pitching from Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang among others - have the Nats only 2 games under .500 at 62-64.  Washington has to merely go 19 and 17 the rest of the way to finish at 81 and 81. 

That is certainly doable since our Nats play 19 of those games in Washington.  Best of all, it's not exactly a Murderers Row of teams coming to South Capital Street, either.  We've got home stands coming up against the fourth-place Mets (3 games), fifth-place Dodgers (4 games), sixth-place Astros (3 games), and fifth-place Marlins (3). The only good teams we play are 3 more this week versus the Diamondbacks and 3 games in September versus the Braves. Assuming we win each series against the bad teams - not sweep, just win - and split the six versus the good ones, that get us 12 curly Ws.

On the road, the Nationals go to Cincinnati for 3, Atlanta for 3, Philly for 4, New York for 4 and Florida for 3. I feel good about splitting with Philly and the Mets, and not getting swept in any of the others so that gives us at least 7 road wins.

For a final total of - ta da! - 19 wins to close out the season, and a very satisfying 81 and 81 mark for 2011.  

Waiting for . . .

As some of you know, Evan has a blog called Waiting for 2012.  But recently the August 8th SweetSpot blog by David Schoenfield looked at a possible Nationals line up in 2013: 

2B Anthony Rendon
RF Jayson Werth
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Mike Morse
CF Bryce Harper
SS Danny Espinosa
C Wilson Ramos
 

Of course, the big news here is Fielder, news since everyone knows we are signing Pujols this winter (of course, Mike Rizzo will in reality sign whoever Scott Boras tells us to).  Espinosa to short stop is not news; he's historically been a short stop and assumes Rendon develops as expected and therefore pushes Desmond off the field.

The semi-big news is Harper in center field.  We know Werth has to stay in one of the corner outfield spots for the next 6 seasons, and Morse's emergence means he gets a corner too, so Harper gets center.  That issue will actually get settled this winter as the Nats are expected to sign a center fielder, with Morse moving to 1B in 2013 after LaRoche's contract expires.  So a more likely 2013 line up is:

CF Free agent 
2B Rendon
3B Zimmerman
1B Morse
RF Werth
LF Harper
SS Espinosa
C Ramos


I'd take either one, frankly.

In terms of pitching, it's exciting to think about Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Detwiler, and someone like Brad Peacock (who'll get a call up soon; nice bit on him from Baseball America here) in 2012 or 2013. Add Tyler Clippard, Colin Balester, Ryan Matheus, Henry Rodriguez and Drew Storen and you have a legit, big-league staff.

So 81wins this year, between 85 and 90 in 2012, and who knows the limit in 2013!  Go Nats!

Nationals Progress

Counting Tyler Clippard's win in last night's All-Star game, the Nationals head into the second half of the season at 46-45, only 8 games back of Atlanta for the wild card spot.

Competing for the wild card this season is probably a little too optimistic.  But for a team with our recent history of 100+ loss seasons actually competing and finishing the first half at 45 and 45 is significant.

Clippard is a great place to start since the Nationals' pitching has been the main reason the team is keeping it's head above water.  Their five man rotation has been in tact for most of the season.  

Number one starter Livan Hernandez was expected to be an inning eater, not a real number one.  In addition to eating up tons of innings Livo's pitched well and been consistent all year.   And he's my age (perhaps)!

The Nats are counting on Steven Strasburg to be their number one starter of the future.  The great news is Jordan Zimmermann is pitching like a number one THIS year.  In June he was as effective - and at times as dominant - as Justin Verlander or C.C. Sabathia.  In his last 10 starts (since May 22nd) in 67 innings, his ERA is 1.61. He's persevered despite not getting much run support, staying focused and positive and dominant.  By far the best first half story for the Nats is Zimmermann.

Former number one starter John Lannan has settled nicely into his number 3 starter slot, and he too has excelled.  In HIS last 10 starts, his ERA is 2.95 in 61 innings.  After a rocky 2010 he's bounced back, throwing lots of ground balls and pitching with confidence.

Number four starter Jason Marquis has been solid.  After a great April he's had some tougher luck of late.  However, though he has missed a few starts, number 5 starter Tom Gorzelanny has been better than expected.   Like Zimmermann, he's lacked run support so is only 2-6 but he sports a sub-4.00 ERA and has done his share of inning eating.

Then there's All-star game winner Clippard, who is a league leader in holds and has a sub-2.00 ERA.  But a great ERA is not rare in Washington's bull pen. Ryan Matheus, Henry Rodriguez, and Drew Storen all have ERAs under 2.60.  And of course Storen has converted 23 out of 26 save chances, too.

The only under-performing pitcher in the bullpen has been Sean Burnett, who has been inconsistent and lacking in confidence at times.   He turned it around last year to finish strong, so hopefully that can happen this year, too.

Of course, when it comes to under-performing but hopefully bouncing back one can only think of Jayson Werth.  It's amazing that we are at .500 while Werth, our stud off season pick up, is at .217!   Unfortunately, Werth's terrible production has not been the only challenge this offense has faced.

Ian Desmond, who has improved his defense, was a wash out as a lead off hitter.  Our best hitter, Ryan Zimmerman, missed two months, and our clean up hitter, Adam LaRoche too was werthless and is now out for the season.  

So the Nationals got almost no production from their Opening Day 1 through 4 hitters in the first half. 

Their pitching - and an improved defense - is the main reason, but credit also goes to the bottom half of that opening day line up, especially Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, and especially Micheal Morse. 
 

Espinosa is a candidate for rookie of the year with 16 homers, 52 ribbies, and an 800 OBS - plus a flare for the dramatic hit and great defense.  Ramos too has had some big hits and is already a fantastic defensive catcher with great footwork and a great arm.

But after Zimmermann, Morse is the second-best story for Washington.  After a torrid spring, Morse flopped in April and May.  He was eventually benched in left field in favor of Laynce Nix, another revelation this year who has gone from the bench to the clean up spot in two months.  The same goes for Roger Bernadina, who started the season in Syracuse but now starts in center.  Though still not comfortable in the lead off spot the Dutch Master has been stellar on defense and had his moments on offense.

But Morse is THE story with the bat. After LaRoche got hurt Morse was back in the line up at first, getting so hot you would have thunk that he replaced Wally Pip.  He finished the first half at .304, 14 homers and 48 RBIs with an .886 OBS.

This team has competed so well so far this season that it's easy to forget that on June 23rd, after winning their 11th game out of 12, their manager Jim Riggleman petulantly quit.  There is no "I" in team but there is one in Riggleman.  

The Nats seemed to quickly turn the page, and GM Jim Rizzo facilitated a successful transition by hiring Davey Johnson, who had worked the last two years as an adviser, to take over.   

Hiring Johnson was a great move then, but looks even better now.  Hiring such a proven coach and winner must have helped quell any uncertainty or unease in the club house in the wake of Riggleman's abandonment of the team.

Every major league team has talent, but often the intangibles are necessary to make good teams into better - or in some cases great - teams.  

This team's intangible is resiliency.  Whether it's their record in one-run games, the way the Nats have outscored their opponents by more than 15 runs in extra innings, or in overcoming Werth's horrible first half AND their manager quitting in the midst of an incredible winning streak, this team has had to deal with lots of challenges and problems.  Thanks to their resiliency - and starting pitching - the Nationals had a successful first half and are poised to have an even better second.

And we still have Strasburg and Bryce Harper on the horizon, for 2012, too.

GO NATS!

More there there than I thought

Like most of the hundreds of Nationals fans in Washington, I've gotten excited by their recent hot streak.  Though they have a talented roster, I thought that it was merely a hot streak on the backs of surging players such as Michael Morse, Danny Espinosa and pitchers like Jordan Zimmermann rather than proof that this year's squad is a talented and legit team. 

But something in today's Post is making me rethink that position.  Adam Kilgore reports that the Nationals have outscored their opponents 26-6 this year in extra inning games.  And yesterday, as the Nats - the Washington Nationals - played on national TV in the Fox Game of the Week a graphic showed that 11 percent of Nationals games have gone into extra innings, the highest percentage in baseball in almost 50 years. 

Not sure if the extra inning-games percentage means much: it could be that our bullpen is NOT as good as we thought, blowing leads too often; or it could mean than this team never gives up and has a talent for late-inning comebacks. 

Either way, I think outscoring your opponent by 20 runs in extra inning games is impressive. It demonstrates both physical talent - making plays on offense, defense and the base paths AND making pitches - and mental toughness and confidence. 

A young, talented roster AND confidence - and now Davey Johnson?  Go Nats!

A few more notes:

• I love the Davey Johnson hire, in theory.  He's a great baseball man with an impressive track record.  But it has been 10 years since he managed.  But of all the potential managers available it's hard to quibble with a hire like Johnson.
• Also hard NOT to root for Equatorial Guinea in the women's World Cup.
• One potential concern for the U.S. team - not enough Tar Heels (or less there there than usual). Historically fellow alums have made up half the roster, but this year only 3 of the 21 players on the U.S. team are from Carolina: Tobin Heath, Heather O'Reilly, and Lindsay Tarpley.