Two Big Questions - DC sports edition

DC sports fans will soon learn the answers to two burning questions.

1. The most immediate one is, do the Wizards have the fortitude to overcome their recent tailspin? The 'Zards have lost 6 straight, including two in a row to bottom feeders, and have gone from an ascending Eastern Conference power led by an emerging MVP candidate to a dysfunctional unit struggling to hang on to a playoff spot.*

Two related issues have emerged for our Washington basketball team. One, unlike every other NBA power, the Wizards do not make a lot of three-pointers or free throws. For a while Rasuel Butler papered over this problem, but the 'Zards clearly miss Trevor Ariza and his three point shooting. The Wizards' problems correspond with Bulter's recent frigid shooting, and Martell Webster has been just as cold since coming back from this third back surgery in four seasons. 

Compounding that problem has been the injury-plagued season of Bradley Beal. But even when he has been on the floor Beal has struggled. His scoring is down, in part due to 'competition' with veteran leader Paul Pierce. It appears that those two occupy the same spaces on the floor and have yet to learn how to play off each other.

Washington fans may recall that when Pierce was originally signed he was supposed to come off the bench. Ironically, he became a starter when Beal was injured in the preseason.  

As the losses have mounted there have been lot of complaints about Randy Wittman's coaching, offense and rotations. One solution may be, once Beal returns from his latest injury, to go back to the 'original' line up and start Gortat, Hilario,** Otto Porter, Beal and Wall, with Pierce coming off the bench.  Pierce is a pro and can handle any scenario thrown at him. Beal - and Porter - are young and their development should be a priority. Starting them with Pierce coming off the bench could be a win-win situation - that gets our Wizards some actual wins.

2. The other DC sports question relates to our Nats. Is this the year we finally decide if GM Mike Rizzo is an actual genius? He's been given that title mainly due to trades where he picked up Gio Gonzalez, Wilson Ramos and Doug Fister for a hill of beans and some worn out resin bags, drafted Anthony Rendon when other teams thought he was injury prone, and signed important free agents such as Jayson Werth and now Max Scherzer. 

Of course, stinking enough when Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were draft eligible also helped.

Bottom line, if the Nats win the World Series this season he will be a certified genius for constructing this team. But if they don't, and stalwarts like Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann leave via free agent, how good will his tenure look? 

Scherzer and ZNN are similar in many ways, except that Zimmerman is younger and cheaper (and home grown). If you don't win a World Series and lose with older and more expensive players*** you can not be called a genius.

GO Wizards, GO Nats!

You're Welcome (I think)

It took a few days, and some infuriating losses, but it looks like Natitude may be returning to southwest Washington.  A week after firing Rick Eckstein - 6 hours after I blogged about the need to do just that - the Nats' offense seems to have awaken.

Of course, we also thought that after the Nationals scored 13 runs in support of Stephen Strasburg to finish a four game sweep of the Padres.   So, in the words of the old Negro spiritual:* 'we will see.'

Last week's blog tried to end on an optimistic note, namely that things could change for this team if Bryce Harper got hot and rejuvenated our offense.  Thankfully, that seems to have started happening.  The Nats have won 4 of 5 to reinvograte the team's season, again, and Harper has gone 7 for 16 with two homers, one a walk off to win a must-win game versus the Pirates, and 6 RBIs.

In addition to revisiting last week's blog, I also want to expand on today's Washington Post story by Nats beat writer Adam Kiglore.  The author examines a handful of reasons why this season has been so frustrating and disappointing.

One was the underperformance of the Nationals' left-handed hitters, in particular Adam LaRoche - who to be fair has always been a slow starter and could very well carry the team again as he did in August last season - and Denard Span.  Injuries in general have hurt, in particular to Harper who is also left-handed.

Another reason was the addition of Span turned the team from a bashing, slugging one to a more balanced nine that could manufacture runs with speed and small ball.The common denominator to both diagnoses problems?   No more Michael "Beast Mode" Morse.

Even though he hits from the right side, we do seem to miss his pop, and in hindsight it would have been great to keep him along with Span and not resign an aging LaRoche.  Of course, one can argue that with Zimmerman at third we need a Gold Glove fielder such as LaRoche at first.  And again, LaRoche could get super hot again and save his and our season (though he's 35).

But as much as we may miss the presence of another home run hitter, or if he would be that much better than LaRoche or Span offensively, I think we may actually miss Morse more in the clubhouse.

One other reason Kilgore lays out for the disappointing season is the pressure that comes with being a  'World Series or Bust' favorite.  No one can argue that any of the Nats, with perhaps the exceptions of the stoic Zimmermann and now-stoic Strasburg, and the carefree Gio, have handled that pressure well.   Tight play has defined this squad for most of the season.

One can safely assume that Morse could have helped with that problem. Or solved that problem. Or the personable and likeable and 'Take On Me" loving Morse would have kept that from ever BEING a problem in the first place.  

Beast Mode would have trumped World Series or Bust.

Natitudes and platitudes
* Maybe Mike Rizzo is not a genius.  Regardless of the Morse trade, the descision to not bring back Sean Burnett and rely on Zack Duke as our only lefty in the pen was a mistake. And Kilgore pointed out the the failure to resign Edwin Jackson does not look that good in the rear-view mirror AND cost the team a draft pick.
* Then there is Drew Storen.  Not sure how to assess how any pitcher could come back from the game 5 debacle, but save to say the Nats have not handled him well, and a pitcher who two years ago saved 43 games has regressed all the way to AAA.
*Finally, Kilgore did not mentin the bad ju-ju of picking William Howard Taft as the 5th

Nats Name George Allen New GM

The future is now at Nationals Park!

In trading four prospects, 3 of whom were among our top 10 according to Baseball America, for 2011 All Star Gio Gonzalez GM Mike Rizzo in NOT looking towards 2013.  In the suddenly competitive NL East Rizzo clearly thinks - as does Manager Davey Johnson - that the Nats can compete with the pitching-rich Phillies, the young Braves, and the renamed and restocked Miami Marlins.

The real loss in that trade is losing prospects - and pitchers - like Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole.  Peacock was the Nats' minor league pitcher of the year last season, and in 12 big league innings only gave up one run.  Tom Milone also looked good during a late season call up.  But the move reflects both a desire to get better now, and the fact that Washington has quite a bit of pitching depth in the minors.

In an end of the season interview with the Washington Post Johnson went so far as to say the Nats were only one player away from contending for a playoff spot in 2012. Most folks thought Johnson meant a center fielder or legit lead off hitter.  

We'll see if a 26-year old All Star who won 31 games, in the tough American League, in the last two years while pitching in the gargantuan Oakland Coliseum - who now is our number 2 or 3 starter after Strasburg and Zimmerman -  is that 'one player.'

A few Nats Notes:

• It will be - at least look like - a big league rotation next year, with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Chien Ming Wang and John Lannan.
• Lannan was our number one starter in 2009 and 2010; now he's number 5.  Bad for Lannan but proof of progress in our pitching staff, right?
• The two other off season moves the Nats have made also fit the 'contending team' model.  Veterans like Mike Cameron, our new back up outfielder, and Mark DeRosa, who can play everywhere, are the kind of bench players contending teams feature.  Then again, you could probably say the same thing about Jerry Hairston last year.

Clever Headline Here

Is Jayson really werth 7 years?  Werth while signing? 

There's got to be one that combines 'werth' and 'dunn,' right?  "Are Nats Dunn Increasing Their Net Werth?" or something like that.

I am not sure what I think about signing Jayson Werth, or anyone not named Pujols or Halladay, for 7 years - seven - years.  You know how long that is?  Uber fan Evan Manuel, who has known only baseball heartache with our hometown Nats, will be in college when Werth will come off the books.  

Most of all, I'm not sure I buy Mike Rizzo's line about this 'makes us look serious,' etc. especially in the wake of NOT giving Dunn a fourth year. Sure, he's a defensive upgrade, and he's a real corner outfielder and power hitter, a plus athlete who can run and steal bases and play center field, etc.  

But Werth has never been the man, the center of an offense. Not only was Adam Dunn good at that, he also seem to enjoy it and was never bothered by the pressure of hitting in the four hole.  Can Werth handle that responsibility?  Bottom line for me:  I'd rather have Dunn for four years than Werth for seven.

I am also not crazy about the Nationals courting Carlos Pena to replace Dunn.  Pena was productive last year despite hitting below - yes, below - the Mendoza line, mainly due to lots of walks and timely homers.  And he is a very good fielder.

However, Pena is no spring chicken (is there anything better than chicken in the spring?  I guess not since there is no other seasonal poultry phrase), and I fear that his .196 batting average (.732 OPS, with a .325 on-base percentage) this past season is an indication that his skills are starting to decline. 

Hope Rizzo only signs him to a six-year deal.