Cubs, White Sox and Obama Make Chicago Center of the Universe

Interesting baseball playoffs coming up.  First you have compelling and traditional teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox, recent World Series winners like the White Sox and Angels, and newcomers such as the Brewers and the Rays.  The Phillies are in there, too, and the Yankees are not.

Half of the first round divisional play offs look like cake walks.  Since CC Sabathia can't pitch every day, I don't expect the Brewers to put up much of a fight against the Phillies. Too much Phillies offense versus very weak Brewers pitching means Philadelphia will advance to the National League Championship Series.

Same in the American League, where I expect the Rays to beat the White Sox.  That series will be tighter than the Brewers-Phillies match up, but I'm still not sold on the ChiSox despite having Obama as a fan.  The Rays will drop a game but move on.

The other two series look like great match ups. Angels-Red Sox is a World Series-worthy series.  The Angels were a trendy pick for a while, and I still think they will win this series.  But the reason has more to do with the Sox than the Angels.  Beckett is hurt, Lowell and Drew are banged up, and the Red Sox bull pen is not that strong. The Red Sox will give them a run, but I see the Angels advancing 3 games to 2.

The Dodgers-Cubs match up is another intriguing one, the best of the four first-round series.  The Cubs look like the best team in the NL, but the Dodgers pitching staff will give them fits - and they have Manny Ramirez.  Derek Lowe has been fantastic down the stretch, as has Chad Billingsley.  Then again, Rich Harden and Ryan Dempster could equal things out.  My head says Cubs, but my gut says pick the Dodgers and their pitching in a 5 game series.  This one will be close and tense with some great baseball. 

So I think it will be Phillies vs. Dodgers (or Cubs) in the NL, and the Rays advancing to play the Angels in the AL.  

 

Heels Take Down Canes

Hard to believe that Carolina went down to Miami and beat the Hurricanes on the road. A week after blowing a 14-point lead in Kenan, the Heels turned the tables on the team from Coral Gables to win 28-21.

Lots of things to be impressed by. One, the fourth quarter comeback from a 14-24 deficit - on the road against a team that won the previous week on the road and thus had some momentum. Two, the play of third-string quarterback Cameron Sexton, who was poised all afternoon, especially on the game winning touchdown to Brooks Foster than saw him roll to his right, throw across his body on the run, and float a perfect pass over the Miami defender to a spot where only Brooks could catch it. Three, the play of the Carolina receivers. Four, the defense tightening in the second half and the two interceptions by Goddard. And finally five, I've watched two football games this season (credit to TiVO for that one).

The Heels play Ed Mierzwinski's UConn Huskies in Kenan on Saturday. I believe the winner advances to the Final Four.

Go Heels!

Swing State Poll

Interesting to see how the swing state poll is playing out. Virginia is perceived as a slam-dunk for Obama. Remember, if Obama holds all the states that Kerry won, something he should do despite tight polling from Pennsylvania and Michigan, he wins and we get the country back.

After Virginia, Colorado and NOT Ohio is seen by Carolina and Hellenic Blue Blog readers to be the next most likely blueBama state. Also interesting to see Nevada tied with Ohio.

Winning all three would be an incredible accomplishment for Obama. Since 1968, those three states - Virginia, Colorado and Nevada - have only voted for Democrats three times. Thanks to Ross Perot, Nevada and Colorado both voted for Clinton in '92. Four years later, without Perot, Clinton lost Colorado but Nevada stuck with him against Dole. That's it. Virginia has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964 and Lyndon Johnson, the only time the state has done so since 1952.

Post-debate, Pre-Hurricane Blog

I thought Obama did well last night, but had to rate the debate a tie. But I think Obama wins in general on a tie. McCain had a terrible week - suspending his campaign, getting called out by both David Letterman and Haley Barbour, calling for the debate to be canceled, generally NOT looking presidential - so had to hit a homer last night. He didn't.

I'm kind of surprised by the reviews that focused on Obama's deference - or more to the point gentlemanliness - and McCain's snarkiness. I don't think either were that big a deal last night. But again, in the context of the week each candidate had - Obama reacting with cool and calm to the worsening financial news, and McCain acting confused and unfocused and in the end silly for flying to DC and sitting on his hands - I guess their demeanor is news. Last night's debate reenforced one of Obama's strengths - his practicality and levelheadedness - and one of McCain's biggest weaknesses - impetuousness and a lack of understanding on the economy.

I wonder if the tone and tenor of the debate in William Faulkner's home town will influence the vice presidential debate. Will Palin - who was very snarky and snide in her acceptance speech at the convention - tone it down against Biden? Or will she reenforce the case that she and McCain are simply rude and condescending and mean and etc.? It seems silly, but remember that Gore and Kerry were hurt by their condescending tone with Bush in their debates.

And will or CAN Biden - who I thought was confident and comfortable and cool last night spinning the debate - take pains to be as nice as Obama was, toning down his attack dog tendencies?

Heels at the U

Big road game for the Heels today at Miami. Would be a tough game regardless, but winning will be even tougher without injured quarterback T.J. Yates. Interesting to see if Butch Davis, on his return to Miami, goes with Paulus or Sexton. Paulus was a big recruit two years ago, but Saxton has started before.

Nats lose 100th game

The Nats dropped their 100th game last night in Philadelphia. The Nats had rallied a fews ago to sweep the Dodgers and take a series from the Phillies. But they followed that streak by getting swept by the last place Padres and are limping to the finish line.

Fans responded to the team more than the stadium as the Nats had the lowest attendance of any team playing in a new stadium, to go along with terrible television ratings.

And to make matters worse, the team stunk in a stadium that the city built for $600 million.

I think DC is still a good baseball town, and there is a good grassroots baseball infrastructure in town. But Stan Kasten overpriced too many seats, something you didn't think they would do while trying to build a solid fan base (especially with a team that Kasten and Bowden knew would stink). The cheap seats - $5 or $10 - almost always sold out, but the outfield seats - seats that cost around $15 to $20 in Baltimore but cost $25 to $30 in DC - usually did not. Ditto the empty seats behind home plate.

As the season limped to the end, Boswell wrote two very critical columns about the Lerners, Kasten and Bowden in the Post. Bottom line: the honeymoon for DC baseball is over. The Nats' brain trust needs to improve this team in the off season or risk weakening a fan base that has eroded despite having a brand new stadium.

Tar Heel Football - yes a football - blog

Carolina looked pretty good taking down Rutgers 44-12 on Thursday night.  I started watching that game around 9pm courtesy of one of the greatest inventions of all time, the digital TiVo box.  I breezed through every commercial, Lou Holtz studio segment, time out, fair catch, etc but managed to watch all the action.  TiVO, and 44 points on the road, made for some quality Carolina television.

Two things stood out about Carolina's performance.  On defense, the Heels kept Rutgers from converting a single first down.  All game long Carolina stopped the Scarlet Knights a few yards short on third down, and that was without Danny Green!

Two, no turnovers on offense while putting up 37 points (minus the interception return).  The offensive line looked a little shaky the first two series, but the whole offense played with confidence the rest of the game.  

Finally, Brandon Tate had another great game, scoring on a 69-yard pass and a 12-yard end run.  If the season ended today he's be the Heisman Trophy winner.

Despite their success, I'd be happy if the season ended today.  I'd rather focus on the baseball pennant races and playoffs, and the run up to basketball season. Especially here in DC, but also on ESPN, etc., football is like some kind of science fiction virus - eating up column inches and taking up oxygen. That is made a bit more palatable when our home town Washington Offensive Nicknames stink and the Heels are good, so this season we may have antidote for the virus!

ACC Football

Carolina's win - on the road versus a Big East team - is one of the ACC's few good out of conference wins this young season.   Wake Forest - basically a school the size of Davidson that is in the ACC because of basketball - is the marquee FOOTBALL team of the conference and the only one ranked.  Other ACC teams have already lost to the likes of Middle Tennessee State (Maryland), Northwestern (Duke), and East Carolina (Virginia Tech), in addition to losing games that were supposed to bolster the conference's reputation; NC State got blown out by South Carolina, Virginia got waxed by USC, Florida dominated the U, and Clemson was never in it against Alabama.

I guess Carolina's win must have inspired other ACC teams, since Maryland beat Cal today and Duke upset Navy.

Baseball Update

Still on the Rays bandwagon, so much so that I stayed up until midnight on Wednesday to watch Tampa Bay defeat the Sox in 14 innings.

Though I'm on that bandwagon, I'm still hoping that the Nats win at least 7 more games to finish with 63 wins and therefore with fewer than 100 losses.  Not impossible when you consider they have 10 more home games, including three against the last place Padres next weekend in Nationals Park.

Favorite News Item of the Week

My favorite headline of the week had to be PALIN FAMILY SHOCKERS: WHAT SARAH'S REALLY HIDING! from the National Enquirer.   I also liked the grilling McCain received on The View.

I also think the interview with Charlie Gibson was significant in that once again, as she was in her acceptance speech, Palin was incredibly snarky and smug.  If that continues to be her style, I don't think that will play well with swings, to say nothing of her hard right views on church and state, abortion, etc. and her lack of experience. She's just not good with the swings in general.    

Though McCain has picked up a Palin-induced bounce, I'm still confident that she will not put him over the top. As we get closer to November 4th, the focus will increasingly go back to McCain and the celebrity status of Palin will fade.  Once that happens, I think the electorate will remember that a first term of the McCain-Palin administration will be the third term of the Bush-Cheney administration.  Finally, once the focus is back on Bush-McCain-the last 8 years, Obama will win.

Todd wins celebrity poll; appears on Meet The Press to tout win

As expected, Chuck Todd impressively won the 'biggest celebrity' poll, garnering an out right majority of the votes (8 of 16).   No comment yet from Chuck on his big win.  

Sarah Palin did not impress the dozen readers of Carolina Hellenic Blue blog, finishing with just 1 vote.  Let's hope that holds until November.  George Pelecanos rode a late 'wave' of Greek support to overtake neighbor Thomas Frank for second place, 4 to 3. 

For the record, Chuck was NOT on MtP today.

Electoral College, plus Ellas, Nats, Rays.

I watched more of the Republican National Convention than I thought I was.  Initially, I planned to check out Palin's speech but skip McCains, but ended up watching both.  Palin was charismatic in a red-meat kind of way, and will keep the R base motivated until November.

But the base won't be enough this year.  I think the bottom line is an inexperienced, hard-right conservative - who could serve with a 72-year old president - will not help with swings in key states like Colorado or places like northern Virginia.  Palin may help turn out the base enough to win semi-swings states like Missouri or my home state of North Carolina (though Zogby had Obama up 7 in late August; I image Palin will eat into that lead, which was too good to be true anyway).  

And no matter how fired up she makes the base, swing voters - like most voters - vote for the candidate running for president, not vice president.  Finally, I doubt a significant number of Hillary voters will go to Palin out of clitorisolidarity.

Obama will win it with turnout and new voters, and more importantly as a result of Bush/GOP fatigue.  

I've been spending lots of my free time at 270towin.com, playing with various electoral college scenarios.  My conservative estimate has Obama narrowly winning the electoral college vote 273 to 265.  That scenario has him winning all the New England states - MD/DE/DC north to ME - the 4 Pacific states, the reliably Democratic Big 10 states - MI, WI, IL, MN, IA - and two crucial western states in New Mexico and Colorado.  This scenario is intriguing in that he wins without Ohio or Virginia.  

I think it's very likely that Obama wins Virgina (13 electoral votes), and is up by a few points in recent polls (conducted prior to both conventions) in Ohio (20).  He'll win at least one or both of those states, so could finish with anywhere from 286 to 293 to a landslide-like 306 electoral votes.  And Obama could pick up other states in play, for instance Nevada (5).

That said, my final pick is Obama at 293.  That basically is my original conservative scenario but with Ohio plus holding Colorado and New Mexico.

Hard to believe isn't it - Joe Biden will be vice president!

One last political note: word in some Hellenic circles is that if Obama wins, Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich (the only Eastern Orthodox governor in America, he's Serbian; Florida's Charlie Crist is a third-generation Greek Cypriot but somehow ended up a Methodist) will appoint Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis to fill his Senate seat. 

Greece Beats Luxembourg

Greece's quest to qualify for just their second World Cup ever got off to a good start today with a 3-0 win over Luxembourg in Luxembourg (city?).   Charisteas scored, as did my main man Fanis Gekas.  I thought Gekas would lead Greece out of the first round of the EURO 2008 championships.  But he didn't play much or that well in Euro 2008, so I'm particularly glad to see that he scored today.

The other significant item from today's win was the shut out by goalie Constantine Chalkias, who plays for PAOK in Thessaloniki.  Chalkias replaced legendary keeper Antonis Nikopolidis who retired after EURO 2008.  Nikopolidis was magnificent in EURO 2004 when Greece won the championship, but played terribly in EURO 2008.   He was especially bad in Ellas' second game, a critical 0-1 loss to Russia

Coincidentally, Gekas and Chalkias are both from Larissa, Greece.

 

Nats have stopped hitting

After playing great baseball - and really hitting - the Nats have gone to Atlanta and reverted back to their July selves. Zimmerman has hit against the Braves but Guzman and Dukes - those three led the hit parade against the Phillies and Dodgers as the Nats won 7 in a row and 8 of 9 - have not.

For a while Evan and I entertained the notion that the Nat could sweep the 4th-place Braves, keep this roll going for the next month, eventually catch Atlanta, and therefore avoid finishing in last place.   But after dropping the first two games in Atlanta it is almost a certainty that Washington will once again be 'first in war, first in peace and last in the NL East."

Rays Bandwagon

I'll spend the rest of the baseball season rooting for the Tampa Bay Rays.  Nice to see a small market team succeed, but also impressive to see a recent expansion team win what Sports Illustrated calls the toughest division in professional sports.

Two Palin clips

Looks like the media is digging the digging into Palin and her track record.   It's a pretty good list - troopergate, pregnant teenage (still) unwed daughter, advocate of earmarks as Mayor and Governor, for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it, and now her slashing of the budget for a teenage mother support program in Alaska.

For one more article on Bristol's pregnancy, check out Ruth Marcus in today's Post.

First Cheney, Now Palin

I don't have much to say about Bristol Palin's pregnancy.  Actually, I have two things to say.   One, is it just me or does it seem inappropriate for any parent to run for Vice President when they have a five-month old baby - with Down's or not - AND have a pregnant seventeen-year-old daughter who - if Palin is to believed - is also planning her wedding?  Not exactly putting her family first here, but I guess Mr. Palin is a HELL of a guy.

And two, Americans probably already do this, but we should always assume that holy rollers like Palin are hypocrites. First we had Cheney, who helps preside over a party that gay bashes every chance they get while having a lesbian daughter.  Now we have back to back vice presidential hypocrites with Palin's daughter vividly demonstrating that abstinence does not work.  As irresponsible as it is to go on the road campaigning while your country song lyrics family is at home,  it's almost more irresponsible to allow a 17-year-old carry a baby to term. 

Hellenic Football Update

Now that the Olympics are over I can finally concentrate on Hellenic football. Greek soccer teams, both the national team and Panathinaikos, will try to restore some Hellenic pride after the very disappointing Olympics. Fortunately, the path to redemption can start as early as this Saturday, when Greece plays Luxembourg in a World Cup qualifying match on September 6th. Four days later, Greece travels to Riga to play Latvia on September 10th. Greece is in a relatively weak group, with Switzerland and Israel their main rivals. Though Greece didn't play that well in Euro 2008 they did play well in qualifying, so should win their group and advance to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.  I think that would only be Greece's third World Cup, and first since coming in last place in the 1994 World Cup played here in the U.S.

Panathinaikos has qualified for the UEFA Champions Cup, the only Greek - but not Hellenic - club to do so. Olympiacos has been a mainstay of European club football, but was upset by Anorthosis of Cyprus in a qualifying match. Unlike the national team, Pana is in a tough group led by InterMilan and Werner Bremen, along with Anorthosis. Their first match is September 16th versus InterMilan at 2:30 eastern time. That game may be televised since it involves a traditional power in InterMilan.

Finally, it's not to late to mark your calendars for the weekend of September 26-28 and St. Sophia's Greek festival (or the Agios Baklavas Festival, as my dad calls these festivals). My kids and I will once again work at Grill II on Sunday making feta burgers, to hot dog, souvlakia and calamari. Feel free to come by on Sunday.