Carolina is four wins away from it's second national championship in four years; it would also mean the two states I've lived in the most would have won four championships in a row.
Washington State, as most of you know, will try to slow the tempo and use the entire shot clock. But in addition to the expected offensive fireworks courtesy of Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington, etc. expect the Heels to dominate the boards against a Cougar team that is not that long or good on the boards. The Heels' rebounding edge will allow Carolina to run and win this game. I'm also confident that the Heels will stay patient on defense, though staying focused for 35 seconds may be a challenge. The good news, besides the rebounding and running, is that a few teams have slowed down the Heels this year - namely Ohio State early in the season and more recently Florida State at the ACC tournament - but have lost by double digits each time.
No news here, but I see the Heels winning comfortably.
The other game in their region, Tennessee and Louisville, could be interesting. But the Volunteers' lack of quality point guard play, against a coach who likes to press, will spell doom for Tennessee. The Vols have not looked smooth or confident in taking down Butler and American.
The best game of the round will probably be Davidson against Wisconsin. The Badgers play a lot like Georgetown, inside out. If they do a better job getting the ball to Beard than Georgetown did getting the ball to Hibbert Wisconsin will win. But Stefan Curry, probably the biggest individual story of the tournament, is so hot - 30 points a game hot - that you wonder if anyone can slow him down. Both teams like the half court set and a slow tempo. I'm picking Davidson and Curry to run their offense more efficiently than Wisconsin so picking the Wildcats to take down the Badgers.
In the other half of that bracket Kansas will easily take down Villanova.
The other blow out will be UCLA over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers may stay close early, but UCLA will eventually grind out another inelegant 15-point win.
The other half of that bracket offers another great match up that is basically a toss up. Xavier won a number of tough games this year and is the dark horse pick to make the 8 on many brackets. But the Mountaineers are playing with a head of steam, so I'll go with West Virginia.
Finally, in the south expect Michigan State to beat up Memphis, put them on the foul line often, and pick up another signature Tom Izzo win. It will be blue collar substance over pretty boy style in Houston. Memphis is the most untested one seed in the tournament, and will wilt against the kind of defense pressure applied by the Spartans.
The other sweet 16 game in the south will see Texas and Rick Barnes cough it up to Stanford in a mild upset (considering the venue). The loopy Lopez brothers will be too much for an inexperienced Texas front line.
Random sports notes:
- Nice article about Danny Green from ESPN the Mag (which is a terrible magazine in my opinion). The article focuses on the challenge of focusing on basketball while his father was incarcerated on a drug charge. I like the matter of fact way Carolina's sports information office handled that situation; UNC didn't duck the issue, and Roy or Woody were never defensive in discussing an obviously delicate and touchy situation.
Special Olympics Report
I've always been disgusted by the International Olympic Committee's decision to give Beijing the 2008 Games. What is more cynical, awarding the Games to a abusive totalitarian-capitalist state four years after awarding the Games to the city that invented democracy, reason, and the Socratic method (among other Hellenic ideals currently out of favor in China), or the IOC chucking their stated ideals for billions and billions of loot?
For a great column on the many problems and contradictions inherent in the pending Games check out Sally Jenkins' column in today's Post. Jenkins helped write Dean's biography (so she rates respect right there).
Props to Speaker Pelosi for going to India last week and calling out the Chinese for their suppression of Tibet protests and general lack of regard for democracy and human rights. She has been the only high profile American politician to speak out against the pending Beijing games.
It was disheartening to see how much criticism the French foreign minister received for suggesting a boycott of the opening ceremony.
This would be a perfect time for Greece - for a million reasons ranging from 'the Olympics was our idea' to 'we invented freedom' - to stand up and call for the Olympics to be moved to Seoul or Sydney or Athens or anywhere else. How great a statement would that be, for Ellas to once again lead the world out of darkness (fill in more cliches here: following a path lit by the Olympic torch; and into the bright light of human liberty and dignity; like the Ancient Greeks did in Athens when free men defeated the Persians at Marathon and saved all that is good - feta cheese, ouzo, dancing in a circle, democracy, stuff like that).
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