Two Big Questions - DC sports edition

DC sports fans will soon learn the answers to two burning questions.

1. The most immediate one is, do the Wizards have the fortitude to overcome their recent tailspin? The 'Zards have lost 6 straight, including two in a row to bottom feeders, and have gone from an ascending Eastern Conference power led by an emerging MVP candidate to a dysfunctional unit struggling to hang on to a playoff spot.*

Two related issues have emerged for our Washington basketball team. One, unlike every other NBA power, the Wizards do not make a lot of three-pointers or free throws. For a while Rasuel Butler papered over this problem, but the 'Zards clearly miss Trevor Ariza and his three point shooting. The Wizards' problems correspond with Bulter's recent frigid shooting, and Martell Webster has been just as cold since coming back from this third back surgery in four seasons. 

Compounding that problem has been the injury-plagued season of Bradley Beal. But even when he has been on the floor Beal has struggled. His scoring is down, in part due to 'competition' with veteran leader Paul Pierce. It appears that those two occupy the same spaces on the floor and have yet to learn how to play off each other.

Washington fans may recall that when Pierce was originally signed he was supposed to come off the bench. Ironically, he became a starter when Beal was injured in the preseason.  

As the losses have mounted there have been lot of complaints about Randy Wittman's coaching, offense and rotations. One solution may be, once Beal returns from his latest injury, to go back to the 'original' line up and start Gortat, Hilario,** Otto Porter, Beal and Wall, with Pierce coming off the bench.  Pierce is a pro and can handle any scenario thrown at him. Beal - and Porter - are young and their development should be a priority. Starting them with Pierce coming off the bench could be a win-win situation - that gets our Wizards some actual wins.

2. The other DC sports question relates to our Nats. Is this the year we finally decide if GM Mike Rizzo is an actual genius? He's been given that title mainly due to trades where he picked up Gio Gonzalez, Wilson Ramos and Doug Fister for a hill of beans and some worn out resin bags, drafted Anthony Rendon when other teams thought he was injury prone, and signed important free agents such as Jayson Werth and now Max Scherzer. 

Of course, stinking enough when Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were draft eligible also helped.

Bottom line, if the Nats win the World Series this season he will be a certified genius for constructing this team. But if they don't, and stalwarts like Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann leave via free agent, how good will his tenure look? 

Scherzer and ZNN are similar in many ways, except that Zimmerman is younger and cheaper (and home grown). If you don't win a World Series and lose with older and more expensive players*** you can not be called a genius.

GO Wizards, GO Nats!

You're Welcome (I think)

It took a few days, and some infuriating losses, but it looks like Natitude may be returning to southwest Washington.  A week after firing Rick Eckstein - 6 hours after I blogged about the need to do just that - the Nats' offense seems to have awaken.

Of course, we also thought that after the Nationals scored 13 runs in support of Stephen Strasburg to finish a four game sweep of the Padres.   So, in the words of the old Negro spiritual:* 'we will see.'

Last week's blog tried to end on an optimistic note, namely that things could change for this team if Bryce Harper got hot and rejuvenated our offense.  Thankfully, that seems to have started happening.  The Nats have won 4 of 5 to reinvograte the team's season, again, and Harper has gone 7 for 16 with two homers, one a walk off to win a must-win game versus the Pirates, and 6 RBIs.

In addition to revisiting last week's blog, I also want to expand on today's Washington Post story by Nats beat writer Adam Kiglore.  The author examines a handful of reasons why this season has been so frustrating and disappointing.

One was the underperformance of the Nationals' left-handed hitters, in particular Adam LaRoche - who to be fair has always been a slow starter and could very well carry the team again as he did in August last season - and Denard Span.  Injuries in general have hurt, in particular to Harper who is also left-handed.

Another reason was the addition of Span turned the team from a bashing, slugging one to a more balanced nine that could manufacture runs with speed and small ball.The common denominator to both diagnoses problems?   No more Michael "Beast Mode" Morse.

Even though he hits from the right side, we do seem to miss his pop, and in hindsight it would have been great to keep him along with Span and not resign an aging LaRoche.  Of course, one can argue that with Zimmerman at third we need a Gold Glove fielder such as LaRoche at first.  And again, LaRoche could get super hot again and save his and our season (though he's 35).

But as much as we may miss the presence of another home run hitter, or if he would be that much better than LaRoche or Span offensively, I think we may actually miss Morse more in the clubhouse.

One other reason Kilgore lays out for the disappointing season is the pressure that comes with being a  'World Series or Bust' favorite.  No one can argue that any of the Nats, with perhaps the exceptions of the stoic Zimmermann and now-stoic Strasburg, and the carefree Gio, have handled that pressure well.   Tight play has defined this squad for most of the season.

One can safely assume that Morse could have helped with that problem. Or solved that problem. Or the personable and likeable and 'Take On Me" loving Morse would have kept that from ever BEING a problem in the first place.  

Beast Mode would have trumped World Series or Bust.

Natitudes and platitudes
* Maybe Mike Rizzo is not a genius.  Regardless of the Morse trade, the descision to not bring back Sean Burnett and rely on Zack Duke as our only lefty in the pen was a mistake. And Kilgore pointed out the the failure to resign Edwin Jackson does not look that good in the rear-view mirror AND cost the team a draft pick.
* Then there is Drew Storen.  Not sure how to assess how any pitcher could come back from the game 5 debacle, but save to say the Nats have not handled him well, and a pitcher who two years ago saved 43 games has regressed all the way to AAA.
*Finally, Kilgore did not mentin the bad ju-ju of picking William Howard Taft as the 5th

Break Up the Nats!

How about our hometown Nats, winners of 6 of their last 10, 7 of 11, 9 out of 14, and three in a row including two come from behind wins. The last two wins were pretty exhilarating thanks to two 8th inning, opposite field bombs from clean up hitter Adam Dunn.

The recent streak gives a Nats fan some legitimate hope for the future. As Evan and I discussed this morning, with this core of Zimmerman, Dunn, Gonzalez, Willingham, Morgan and a hopefully healthy Flores behind the plate, and a maturing and talented pitching staff led by John Lannan, Craig Stamman, Jordan Zimmermann, the Nats could actually be a 500 team next year, or at least win a semi-respectable 75 to 80 games. Once you do that - and if the pitching continues to improve - in two years they could win 85 to 90 games, or better yet become the next Tampa Bay Rays and get really hot.

And I haven't even mentioned number one draft pick Steven Strasburg! Of course, the Nats will still need to sign or develop a closer. I can't imagine they think Macdougal is the solution there. But this kind of dreaming and scheming is just another great reason to follow and love sport.

Go Nats!

A Few Random Thoughts

• Good article today in the N&O on how much ol' Roy is enjoying the latest Tar Heel championship. As Heels fans, we need to step back and enjoy it too. This may be our golden age; the talent and results from the Dean Dome are spectacular and unparalleled in college hoopdom. And as great as watching a national championship team and guys like Hansbrough and Lawson on the court, I am giddy with anticipation for the upcoming season. The Noel team of 2006 was great fun to watch (it's funner to watch a team that is the defending national champ), and I expect this year's Ginyard team to be equally fun.
• One Greek soccer note: Panathinaikos defeated Sparta Prague 3-0 yesterday in Athens to advance to the round of 32 in the UEFA Champions League. The Greens lost the first game of the two-game series 1-3, but advanced due to away goals and aggregate goals scored. I was hoping to watch the game on the Dish Network, but we are having problems with our Greek sports channel (trouble that is supposed to be resolved today, a day late).

Electoral College, plus Ellas, Nats, Rays.

I watched more of the Republican National Convention than I thought I was.  Initially, I planned to check out Palin's speech but skip McCains, but ended up watching both.  Palin was charismatic in a red-meat kind of way, and will keep the R base motivated until November.

But the base won't be enough this year.  I think the bottom line is an inexperienced, hard-right conservative - who could serve with a 72-year old president - will not help with swings in key states like Colorado or places like northern Virginia.  Palin may help turn out the base enough to win semi-swings states like Missouri or my home state of North Carolina (though Zogby had Obama up 7 in late August; I image Palin will eat into that lead, which was too good to be true anyway).  

And no matter how fired up she makes the base, swing voters - like most voters - vote for the candidate running for president, not vice president.  Finally, I doubt a significant number of Hillary voters will go to Palin out of clitorisolidarity.

Obama will win it with turnout and new voters, and more importantly as a result of Bush/GOP fatigue.  

I've been spending lots of my free time at 270towin.com, playing with various electoral college scenarios.  My conservative estimate has Obama narrowly winning the electoral college vote 273 to 265.  That scenario has him winning all the New England states - MD/DE/DC north to ME - the 4 Pacific states, the reliably Democratic Big 10 states - MI, WI, IL, MN, IA - and two crucial western states in New Mexico and Colorado.  This scenario is intriguing in that he wins without Ohio or Virginia.  

I think it's very likely that Obama wins Virgina (13 electoral votes), and is up by a few points in recent polls (conducted prior to both conventions) in Ohio (20).  He'll win at least one or both of those states, so could finish with anywhere from 286 to 293 to a landslide-like 306 electoral votes.  And Obama could pick up other states in play, for instance Nevada (5).

That said, my final pick is Obama at 293.  That basically is my original conservative scenario but with Ohio plus holding Colorado and New Mexico.

Hard to believe isn't it - Joe Biden will be vice president!

One last political note: word in some Hellenic circles is that if Obama wins, Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich (the only Eastern Orthodox governor in America, he's Serbian; Florida's Charlie Crist is a third-generation Greek Cypriot but somehow ended up a Methodist) will appoint Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis to fill his Senate seat. 

Greece Beats Luxembourg

Greece's quest to qualify for just their second World Cup ever got off to a good start today with a 3-0 win over Luxembourg in Luxembourg (city?).   Charisteas scored, as did my main man Fanis Gekas.  I thought Gekas would lead Greece out of the first round of the EURO 2008 championships.  But he didn't play much or that well in Euro 2008, so I'm particularly glad to see that he scored today.

The other significant item from today's win was the shut out by goalie Constantine Chalkias, who plays for PAOK in Thessaloniki.  Chalkias replaced legendary keeper Antonis Nikopolidis who retired after EURO 2008.  Nikopolidis was magnificent in EURO 2004 when Greece won the championship, but played terribly in EURO 2008.   He was especially bad in Ellas' second game, a critical 0-1 loss to Russia

Coincidentally, Gekas and Chalkias are both from Larissa, Greece.

 

Nats have stopped hitting

After playing great baseball - and really hitting - the Nats have gone to Atlanta and reverted back to their July selves. Zimmerman has hit against the Braves but Guzman and Dukes - those three led the hit parade against the Phillies and Dodgers as the Nats won 7 in a row and 8 of 9 - have not.

For a while Evan and I entertained the notion that the Nat could sweep the 4th-place Braves, keep this roll going for the next month, eventually catch Atlanta, and therefore avoid finishing in last place.   But after dropping the first two games in Atlanta it is almost a certainty that Washington will once again be 'first in war, first in peace and last in the NL East."

Rays Bandwagon

I'll spend the rest of the baseball season rooting for the Tampa Bay Rays.  Nice to see a small market team succeed, but also impressive to see a recent expansion team win what Sports Illustrated calls the toughest division in professional sports.