Showing posts with label Electoral College. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Electoral College. Show all posts

Monday, November 3, 2008

Election Eve

Every presidential election in America is important. To quote a former president, that statement is self evident. And though each one is always the most important election on the planet, tomorrow's rises above the usual quadrennial significance.

One, simply marking the end of the last eight years is huge. After running as the 'compassionate conservative' ticket, the Bush-Cheney administration governed at times like incompetents in way over their heads - the war in Iraq, Katrina, the lack of oversight of Wall Street, tax cuts for the wealthy while fighting two wars and thus running up huge deficits - and at other times like paranoid Nixonian rogues - misleading the public about weapons of mass destruction, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo. The combination adds up to eight years of failure and shame, and America's standing in the world at it's lowest. To think that on September 12, 2001 the entire world stood with us as the west rallied against dangerous religious extremism and violence. All of that is gone thanks to the boobs in the White House.

Two, this election could mark the evolution of the United States from a democracy to a participatory democracy. For liberals, actually for any American, that is a tremendous development. Having so many first-time voters vote for a winning candidate will make them lifelong voters. But I also think this election, and the election of someone like Barack Obama, will make people political not just repeat voters. I hope this leads to more people following current events, reading newspapers, writing letters to the editor, volunteering with civic organizations - a rejuvenation of our civic life. That's what a message of hope, and a message than wins elections, can do.

Far too many Americans put down politics, but to me politics is the best thing about America. And not voting is simply un-American. The best thing about America is we aren't like the Greeks or Chinese, bound together by blood or thousands of years of history and tradition. America reinvents itself too often to be rooted in old world concepts like blood or place or family. Instead, the United States is defined by something vastly superior: an ideal and a politics exemplified by elections and Congress and the separation of powers and a free press and the Bill of Rights. Our ideals make us Americans, and it has always bothered me when one of my fellow citizens puts down politics. Politics makes us who we are more than any other facet of American life.

Obama is making politics - and American ideals - cool again for the first time in my lifetime, certainly for the first time since John Kennedy was president. He keeps drawing huge crowds in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina; conversely, McCain and Palin, with a more fearful and cynical and less uplifting message, have played to some small crowds in the last few days.

And three, there is Obama himself. For me, Obama is significant on two levels. The first one is obvious; electing an African-American is incredible and something frankly to be proud of. What a great leap forward for America and the American electorate. But even more important than his blackness - yes, he's black enough - is the fact that Obama's election reinvigorates one of the best American dreams of them all: the fact - FACT - that truly anyone can grow up to be President of the United States. That simple fact speaks volumes about our nation. Not to sound to corny and immigrantee, but only in American can someone like Obama - and as Chris Rock has pointed out, you can't elect a blacker name than Barack Obama - be elected President. A mixed-race child of Kansan and Kenyan parents, raised in Hawaii - can any story be more everyman American, and better illustrate America reinventing itself?

Again, we are a nation not united by blood or ethnicity but by ideals, ideals that like our nation can be reinvented or rejuvenated every four years.

That is, every four years if the right guy wins. Hopefully that will happen tomorrow on a very historic election day for our nation (and hopefully, it won't always be guys).

A little more blather
  • Obama has a great story, but most of our presidents since Kennedy have had similar backgrounds. Did you know, for instance, that Lyndon Johnson's father was from Uganda? Ok, that's not true. Johnson was from a rural part of Texas and graduated from South West Texas State and initially was a teacher; Jimmy Carter, a peanut farmer from southwest Georgia (southwest Georgia is east of the middle of nowhere); Bill Clinton lived the lyrics of a country song, raised in Arkansas by a mama married multiple times to an array of shady men, and a man who never knew his daddy. Even the Republicans not 'born with a silver foot in his mouth' have humble origins: Nixon was from rural California, and Reagan went west from Illinois in the quintessential quest to remake himself and start all over.
  • Earlier in this blog I blathered about participatory democracy. That will be very significant for African-Americans, especially in the south, a young people. In the south, massive turnout rewarded with victory could finally make the south a progressive region, with the long-awaited alliance of blacks (25 to 30% of the vote), white liberals (10-15%, mainly in cities, gay parts of town, and college towns), and ethnics (Jews, Greeks, but most of all Hispanics) making states like North Carolina and Georgia truly bipartisan and in play every election from here on out.
  • One last defense of politics. If folks want to put down something, how about attacking economics or fear or unfettered free trade, or greed? To me, those motivations are responsible for the worst things American has done in the past: the slave trade, stealing the land of Native Americans, interning Japanese-Americans, etc. Politics has it's share of problems, but it wasn't politics than produced those atrocities.
  • Finally, I think Obama will finish with an astounding 353 electoral votes. In the end, though my head says not to, I'm giving Obama both my home states of North Carolina and Florida. Add those two to the states Kerry carried, plus Obama's strength in expanding the map in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, then Ohio (a state that went very D in 2006 where the economy will carry the day for Obama) and you get to a almost-landslide like 353 electoral votes, with probably 53 percent of the popular votes, for a brutha' named Barack Obama. Astounding, and excellent.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Electoral College, plus Ellas, Nats, Rays.

I watched more of the Republican National Convention than I thought I was.  Initially, I planned to check out Palin's speech but skip McCains, but ended up watching both.  Palin was charismatic in a red-meat kind of way, and will keep the R base motivated until November.

But the base won't be enough this year.  I think the bottom line is an inexperienced, hard-right conservative - who could serve with a 72-year old president - will not help with swings in key states like Colorado or places like northern Virginia.  Palin may help turn out the base enough to win semi-swings states like Missouri or my home state of North Carolina (though Zogby had Obama up 7 in late August; I image Palin will eat into that lead, which was too good to be true anyway).  

And no matter how fired up she makes the base, swing voters - like most voters - vote for the candidate running for president, not vice president.  Finally, I doubt a significant number of Hillary voters will go to Palin out of clitorisolidarity.

Obama will win it with turnout and new voters, and more importantly as a result of Bush/GOP fatigue.  

I've been spending lots of my free time at 270towin.com, playing with various electoral college scenarios.  My conservative estimate has Obama narrowly winning the electoral college vote 273 to 265.  That scenario has him winning all the New England states - MD/DE/DC north to ME - the 4 Pacific states, the reliably Democratic Big 10 states - MI, WI, IL, MN, IA - and two crucial western states in New Mexico and Colorado.  This scenario is intriguing in that he wins without Ohio or Virginia.  

I think it's very likely that Obama wins Virgina (13 electoral votes), and is up by a few points in recent polls (conducted prior to both conventions) in Ohio (20).  He'll win at least one or both of those states, so could finish with anywhere from 286 to 293 to a landslide-like 306 electoral votes.  And Obama could pick up other states in play, for instance Nevada (5).

That said, my final pick is Obama at 293.  That basically is my original conservative scenario but with Ohio plus holding Colorado and New Mexico.

Hard to believe isn't it - Joe Biden will be vice president!

One last political note: word in some Hellenic circles is that if Obama wins, Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich (the only Eastern Orthodox governor in America, he's Serbian; Florida's Charlie Crist is a third-generation Greek Cypriot but somehow ended up a Methodist) will appoint Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis to fill his Senate seat. 

Greece Beats Luxembourg

Greece's quest to qualify for just their second World Cup ever got off to a good start today with a 3-0 win over Luxembourg in Luxembourg (city?).   Charisteas scored, as did my main man Fanis Gekas.  I thought Gekas would lead Greece out of the first round of the EURO 2008 championships.  But he didn't play much or that well in Euro 2008, so I'm particularly glad to see that he scored today.

The other significant item from today's win was the shut out by goalie Constantine Chalkias, who plays for PAOK in Thessaloniki.  Chalkias replaced legendary keeper Antonis Nikopolidis who retired after EURO 2008.  Nikopolidis was magnificent in EURO 2004 when Greece won the championship, but played terribly in EURO 2008.   He was especially bad in Ellas' second game, a critical 0-1 loss to Russia

Coincidentally, Gekas and Chalkias are both from Larissa, Greece.
 
Nats have stopped hitting

After playing great baseball - and really hitting - the Nats have gone to Atlanta and reverted back to their July selves. Zimmerman has hit against the Braves but Guzman and Dukes - those three led the hit parade against the Phillies and Dodgers as the Nats won 7 in a row and 8 of 9 - have not.

For a while Evan and I entertained the notion that the Nat could sweep the 4th-place Braves, keep this roll going for the next month, eventually catch Atlanta, and therefore avoid finishing in last place.   But after dropping the first two games in Atlanta it is almost a certainty that Washington will once again be 'first in war, first in peace and last in the NL East."

Rays Bandwagon

I'll spend the rest of the baseball season rooting for the Tampa Bay Rays.  Nice to see a small market team succeed, but also impressive to see a recent expansion team win what Sports Illustrated calls the toughest division in professional sports.