ACC season

As improbable as it may sound, there is a very good chance that Carolina could go 11 and 5, at the very least 10 and 6, in the ACC this year. And it's not inconceivable that the Heels could finish 12 and 4.

The Heels have looked better lately, which is heartening and the main reason to be optimistic.  Larry Drew is playing better,  Tyler Zeller and John Henson are dependable post players at both ends of the floor,  Dexter Strickland has figured out ways to score (though it would be great if our shooting guard could shoot) and has been playing lock down defense, and Leslie McDonald and Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock may give us some legit outside shooting. I also love the work the two Justins, messers Watts and Knox, are doing off the bench.

But the main reason to be optimistic about 10 wins in conference is the generally atrocious condition of the ACC. Duke is very good - they were likely great with Kyrie Irving - but that is practically it when it comes to the ACC. 

Finally, the schedule favors the Heels.  Our road games are at Duke, State, Boston College, FSU, Clemson, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Miami. Those last 4 are likely wins. The Heels could fall to Clemson - though I doubt it - or Miami in Coral Gables; the U is getting better. Or we could pull one out over BC in Chestnut Hill.  But with no visits to College Park or Blacksburg you only need to pencil in 4 road losses.

At home we get to feast on some pretty weak teams. The Hokies, Clemson, State, FSU, Wake, BC, Maryland and Duke come to Chapel Hill.  Ideally we run the table at the Smith Center, but even if we lose to Duke or suffer a hick up along the way against Virginia Tech or Maryland that is still only 2 home losses.

Pretty good news for a team that went 5 and 11 last year. I'm trying to stay realistic with this team but when you look at the schedule and the rest of the league 10 wins seems more than doable. And without Irving I feel good about taking down Duke at least once, so put me down for 11 wins for the 2011 Heels.

Heels Notes

• One easy way to gauge how weak the ACC is are the polls.  Duke is the only ACC team in the top 25 this week, again.
• Interesting to note how Carolina has played 5 teams in the current top 25: Kentucky, Texas, Vanderbilt, Minnesota and Illinois.
• ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Heels listed as a 9 seed in his first edition of Bracketology.  Though we are only 1-4 versus the teams in the current top 25 when you look at Lunardi's field you see that we have already defeated three teams predicted to make the NCAA tournament, Long Beach State and Lipscomb, in addition to Kentucky.