One more time

For what it's worth, I do not think Gilbert Arenas should go to jail for a momentary lapse into knuckleheadedness.  Arenas is not a thug, just someone who made a terrible decision.  Today's accusations of a cover up, while unsavory, do not change my opinion.

If anything, Arenas has shown a consistent pattern of being foolish and immature, but not violent or bad.  A jail sentence is not merited.

I also think it's worth ready today "DC Sports Bog" about Arenas' support for area teams and families.   

His donations and immaturity are the yin-yang that define Arenas, not thuggery or conspiracies.

Socrates and March Madness

Socrates famously said "Why do you think I should drink hemlock?"  


He also said 'all I know is I know nothing.'  That is certainly appropo for me and the NCAA Tournament.  I thought this would be a pretty boring tournament but Thursday was anything but (of course, since Carolina is not in this year I didn't watch much of it, but I read it was a terrific day).  


Friday, yes, was boring, with the inevitable wins by number 1 seeds and the continued frustrations of Clemson and Florida State.  Oliver Purnell has yet to win an NCAA tournament game at Clemson, and they should have defeated a mediocre Missouri team.  And FSU is FSU, and perhaps always will.


For me the biggest upset - bigger than Murray State beating Vanderbilt, a game Obama called on ESPN - was the ninth best team in the MAC dominating Georgetown.  The Hoyas, who's system has been predicated on tough defense since John Thompson built the program in the late 1970s, gave up 97 points in 40 minutes to Ohio, a team that had a losing record in the Mid America Conference.


As a whole the Big East took a beating in the first round, and it should have been worse since Villanova did NOT deserved to defeat Robert Morris. 


But enough looking back.  Here is my quick look at this weekend's games (these picks are not intended to be the basis for any wagering; but if you remember Socrates' take on my picks why would you?):



Kansas will get a very tough game from UNI and everyone's favorite Iowa-born Iranian-American Ali Faroukmanesh. 


Michigan State should have lost in round one, and Maryland looked good but not flashy against Houston and will take down the Spartans.


Ohio vs. Tennessee is a toss up, but I don't think Ohio will play as well and Tennessee will not play as bad as in round one so I'm picking the Vols.


Ohio State looks Final Four worthy with the kind of dynamic leader in Evan Turner that often leads to good runs in the NCAA tournament.  Georgia Tech has it's hands full, but at least Paul Hewitt won an NCAA tournament game.


Syracuse will swamp Gonzaga.


This will be an interesting game as methodical Butler takes on athletic Murray State.  Butler handled a similarly athletic UTEP in the first round  and I think they will do the same and advance to their second sweet 16 in three years.


A semi-upset as the A-10s Xavier knocks off a Pitt team that limped into the post season.  That said, Jamie Dixon may be the coach of the year; Panthers lost almost as much talent as Carolina did but recovered to have a very good season. 


BYU over K-State is a real upset, but I'm not impressed by the Wildcats but am by Jimmer Whatshisname.  Any other year he would have the best name in the field but Jimmer has the unfortunate luck of playing in Faroukmanesh's shadow.


Why some, including my main man Hubert Davis, think a Dino Gaudio-coached team can upset Kentucky is beyond me.  If Wake Forest upsets the Cats I will eat my hat (note: I am not wearing a hat; offer not valid in areas without Congressional representation).


I wanted to pick Cornell over Temple but went with the A-10 for some reason.  This is a legit team that barely lost to Kansas in Lawrence this season.  Plus, Wisconsin plays at Cornell's pace so look for them to out badger the Badgers. 


My new dark horse is Washington and their dude Poindexter. Look for an easy win over an overrated New Mexico.


Can't believe Missouri beat Clemson, but West Virginia will send them home a day later than expected.


Duke should avenge their 1993 lose to Jason Kidd's Golden Bears but this will be tight game for the Devils.


Texas A&M will win a game no one cares about.


My sleeper final four team, Baylor, will have an easier time with the Monarchs than they did with Sam Houston State.


I compete my upset picks with taking St. Mary's over an overrated Villanova team.  The Gaels, despite have TWO girls names, are big inside - a weakness of the Wildcats.


So there you have it - either you heard it here first or 'all I know is I know nothing.'

Not very satisfying

To say the least, today was NOT a very satisfying day of basketball.  

The 'best' news of the day - and boy is THAT a relative term - was Carolina qualifying for the NIT.  The Heels play William and Mary on Tuesday night.  Hard to get excited about that, even with the nostalgic return to Carmichael. Pretty interesting imagery; Carmichael signifies a return to an era of less hoopla and hype, but also is an acknowledgement that though not actually going back in time the 2010 season was a step back for the program. 

Speaking of going back in time, interesting to juxtapose Carolina's recent national success with Duke's recent run at the ACC tournament.  Their win today gave Duke 18 ACC titles, one more than Carolina; the Devils really piled up the wins during the Guthridge-Doherty era but have also won the last two championships.  I think it is the only major hoops category where the Heels trail the Devils.  

That's not the only role reversal.  In the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Duke went to 7 Final Fours in 9 years, many commentators and fans opined that Krzyzewski and Duke had broken with tradition and were emphasizing national success over ACC success.  I remember Dean complaining at the time that though the Heels were winning 3 ACC championships during that span everyone thought Carolina was slumping.  

But as you know, that has now flip-flopped.  Duke has won 9 out of the last 12 ACC tournaments but has only been to the Final Four three times in that span (not counting this year), and have not made the Final Four since 2004 (haven't made it past the sweet 16 actually). Carolina has been to the Final Four three times just since 2004, and has won two National Championships in the last 5 years. And during that 12-year ACC run Carolina has been to more Final Fours, 5 to 3, than Duke.

So Duke has done well regionally but Carolina much better nationally, with more Final Fours and National Championships - both in the last 12 years and overall - than the right-wingers from Duke.

Duke's lack of success in the NCAA tournament - despite nice runs in the ACC tournament - may also be a testament to how weak the conference has been since coaches like Dean Smith, Bobby Cremins, Jim Valvano and even Jeff Jones have left, and since football expansion.  Except for Gary Williams, the ACC has been an easy conference to dominate post-Dean - that is until Roy showed up. 

Pretty lackluster day for the NCAA tournament, too.  It looks like a fairly boring bracket; there are too many weak teams like Utah State, Minnesota, and Florida in this year's field, and it would NOT be a big surprise to see the top 2 seeds in each regional advance to the elite eight.

And not to sound too Duke obsessed, but they got a very easy bracket.  A second-round game versus Louisville could be difficult, and Baylor is supposed to be tough. But the Waco-based hoopsters might not make that far, having to play Notre Dame and Villanova for the right to take down the Devils (an enticing prospect for a Baptist school).  That said, I expect Duke to lose in the second or fourth round due to fatigue.

The bad news for Syracuse is they will have to go west, through Salt Lake City, to reach the Final Four.  The good news is the long flight to Utah may be their biggest inconvenience.   The west regional looks pretty tame, with an overrated 2 seed, Kansas State, and slumping 3 and 4 seeds (Pitt and Vanderbilt, respectively).  Perhaps Butler will give the Cuse a game, but that may be it.

The other brackets are much tougher, especially the midwest. Kansas should advance in the Midwest, but could be tested by UNLV in the second round and by either Ohio State or the winner of Georgetown-Tennessee.  To me, Tennessee if one of the few intriguing teams in the tournament, and I'll be rooting for ACC/neighbor Maryland to make some noise in that region.

Kentucky may have the toughest bracket.  They have to deal with either Temple or Wisconsin, both potential giant killers in the round of 16, then may have to take on West Virginia in the battle of "States that want the US to continue with our 19th century energy policy." 

So my final four are: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, and my crazy wild card pick, Baylor.

Random NCAA Notes:

• Virginia Tech got hosed. The third-place team in the ACC is one of the best 65 best teams in the country - period.  Case closed.  But especially when compared to moops like Utah State and Florida.
• A sentimental favorite is Notre Dame, with Ben Hansbrough at the two guard spot.  Can the Hansbroughs make it back-to-back Final Fours?
• Temple is one dark horse pick for the sweet 16.  The A-10 is a quality mid-major, and the Owls defeated Villanova this year and have a good draw (though Cornell is a tough out). 
• Besides Duke the ACC teams have challenging draws.  Maryland will likely get Michigan State in the second round, with Kansas waiting.  
• Tech will probably defeat Oklahoma State but gets Ohio State as a reward.  The Yellow Jackets match up well with the Buckeyes but that will be a tough foe.
• Florida State gets Gonzaga then perhaps Syracuse.  No way the Noles win more than one game in the tournament.  
• Texas and Wake Forest meet in a 'man are we in a slump' first-round game.  Texas finished 7-9, with Wake one game better in their last 16 games at 8-8.  Hard to have any faith in Wake, but luckily they play a team playing just as bad as they are.  Either team will likely get run over my Kentucky in the second round.
• Clemson should give Oliver Purnell his first NCAA win over Missouri (another undeserving team) before probably bowing out to West Virginia though the Tigers will give the Mountaineers a game.  That will be in interesting second round match up.

Have To is better than Want To

This morning in church, Father Steve’s sermon focused on the cross. I won’t give a complete review of his homily, but one of his core messages was “often times we need to do what we have to do rather than what we want to do.” And by doing so, we will be more fulfilled and happy and accomplished. 


A good lesson for our entire congregation, but of course I can think of three other bloggable topics from Father Steve’s sermon.


First of all, that old Hellenic bugaboo – Turkey. I have no patience for Greeks who reflexively blame or condemn Turkey. I’m not happy that they have Constantinople, but history is history. And like most Greeks, at least Greeks in Greece, I hope that one day Turkey joins the European Union.  


But if they want to join the EU, Turkey has to admit that the Armenian genocide happened, guarantee religious freedom, recognize the government of Cyprus and withdraw Turkish troops, among other things. 


I’m picking on the Turks because this week the Turkish government officially protested the House Foreign Relations committee passing a resolution condemning the Armenian genocide. The official Turkish government policy is that the genocide never happened. Of course, there is no legitimate debate on the first genocide of the 20th century, one the dissolving Ottoman Empire got away with. 
  
Implicit to joining a union of European states is that you give up some of your sovereignty in order to conform to the European – and western - standards.  But Turkey’s ultra-nationalism (to say nothing of European misgivings about including a Muslim country in its ranks) seems to make EU membership impossible. 


A few months ago 60 Minutes profiled the petty and mean-spirited restrictions on the Orthodox Ecumenical Patriarch in Istanbul. The EU charter prohibits that kind of religious persecution, but the Turkish government continues to keep the Patriarchate under its thumb despite the consequences for EU membership.


They want to keep acting like blind nationalists, but to make Turkey better they have to acknowledge the genocide, appreciate the history of the Patriarchate in Constantinople and guarantee religious freedom for non-Muslims, and recognize the government of Cyprus (which, after all, is an E.U. member).


Two, the elected officials and others who keep harping on the size of the deficit, if they are serious about this issue, need to either raise taxes to increase revenue or stop talking about this issue.  


I’ve blogged this before, but discretionary spending on so-called big government programs is only 3 percent of federal spending.  A catch phrase for hypocritical deficit hawks is “I want a government small enough to drown in a bath tub.”  Well, unless the bathtub is the Pacific Ocean that’s not happening. The only way to fit our government into a metaphorical bathtub is to undertake unrealistic and dramatic cuts in defense spending and Social Security/Medicare, or stop paying interest on the debt.  


Getting people back to work – and paying them unemployment insurance – is more important than deficit reduction. It’s also a way to shrink the debt long term since unemployment insurance spurs spending, and in America’s service economy consumer spending leads to jobs.  Jobs lead to more taxes and revenue, and revenue leads to deficit reduction.  


Deficit hawks want to shrink government, but to really reduce the deficit they have to support more government spending on job creation. 


Finally, as the entire world knows Greece’s economy is in crisis. But despite some protests in the streets – and let’s face it, Greeks will protest anything; when Jesus comes back they’ll protest that – polls show more than 70 percent of the public supports the long-overdue cuts to Greek government spending (FYI, the Greek government sold $7 billion worth of bonds last week, so others seem to support what the government is doing, too). 


So it appears Greece, of all people, is doing what they have to as opposed to what they want to.

Marcus Ginyard Karma

For whatever reason - actually the main reason is blind, Carolina-bred optimism - I like our chances as the Heels head to Durham to take on the right-wingers from Duke tonight.


There is lot of karma on both sides, but I think we have more: our four-game winning streak at Cameron, our own modest two-game winning streak, giving classy seniors Ginyard and Thompson a great way to go out (Ginyard said winning at Duke would be akin to April's national championship for him), Duke overconfidence and pressure to finally give their senior's a win over Carolina at Cameron.


All that could add up to a win.


But more importantly the Heels are playing better.  Ginyard seems healthy, Thompson showed some toughness in the win over Miami, Drew is making better decisions, and though rusty at least Tyler Zeller is back.


Last night, ESPN Classic reran the 2006 win in Cameron that started the current winning streak.  It was great reliving that game, and fun to watch Tyler Hansbrough dominate one more time, a fast Bobby Frasor making plays and clutch free throws, David Noel being David Noel, Rey-Rey's rebounding, key contributions by Byron Saunders, and Danny Green foreshadowing him big play-making with key plays late.


But I was most excited to remember how well Ginyard played in that game.  He finished with 11 points off the bench - Carolina's starting lineup was Hansbrough, Terry, Noel, Frasor and Wes Miller, with a pretty talented bench; what a team - including a back-breaking coast-to-coast lay up off a missed free throw.


So I'm placing my faith in Marcus Ginyard tonight.  I'm even about to visit his hometown, Alexandria, Virginia, this morning for a visit to the Toyota dealer.  That's just too much karma for the Heels, and will hopefully be too much for the Devils tonight, too.


As always, GO HEELS!

Quick ACC blog

Interesting games last night in the ACC.  


The marquee game was Duke at Maryland.  I'm not a big General Greivis fan but late in the game, after Duke had asserted itself and taken a second-half lead, he made play after play to lead the Terps to their 12th win in the conference.  


Gary Williams has a right to feel pretty smug.  Two seasons after alums were screaming for his firing and the Post ran a 5-part series about how far Maryland has fallen he's got a team that looks average on paper (of course, games aren't played on paper, they're played on ESPN) in first place in the ACC.  It's easy to forgot how much success he's had in College Park.  


If Carolina doesn't win the ACC tournament I won't mind rooting for Maryland in the NCAA tournament.


Duke, on the other had, seems poised for yet another late season swoon, one I hope picks up momentum on Saturday night against the Heels. One weird feature of Duke basketball lately - since the Shane Battier-Jason Williams juggernaut - has been Krzyzewski's inability to develop any quality depth. As a result Duke teams of recent years always look gassed late in the year.


That seemed to be on display late in the game versus Maryland, where John Scheyer and Nolan Smith missed open shots that they had knocked down earlier in the game. Despite having decent size - Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek and not one but TWO Plumlees - the Blue Devils continue to be a jump-shooting team. And if you have tired legs it's hard to be a good jump shooting team. 


The Plumlees, who seem to be athletic and skilled, only played 22 minutes last night. Seems like you should give them, and back-up point guard Andre Dawkins, more time especially when you consider that Singler played 40 minutes and Scheyer and Smith each played 38.  


Finally, one underreported story that obviously hurts Duke's depth has been the number of transfers lately. I'm assuming most of those are due to Krzyzewski being a demanding task master.  Just in the last 2 seasons Duke has lost 3 players - Elliott Williams (Memphis), Taylor King (Villanova) and Firstname Thompson (Northwestern) - who are contributing at schools playing big time college basketball.


ACCents:

• Add my voice to the chorus of critics who think football-driven expansion has hurt ACC basketball. Last night fewer than 4,000 fans showed up for Virginia's game at Boston College. It was spring break and Boston is a pro-sports town, but still, 4,000 fans?  BC should not be in the ACC.
• Miami made more sense in that the conference already had one Florida member, but they continue to draw flies for basketball, both in Coral Gables and on the road. Miami's game in Chapel Hill was not a sell. That's not the U's fault, but they do not generate ANY basketball buzz and probably never will.
• The only school that made sense to add was Virginia Tech. A geographic fit, natural rival for Virginia, and they have a hoops fan base. Last night they had a sell out for NC State, and almost all the fans stuck around last weekend when a water main break delayed the start of their game versus Maryland by 3 hours. 

Two

The night of the number: 2 thousand wins for the Heels, 2-game winning streak (hey, we'll take what we can get this year), and 2 seniors going out as winners.


Though it was - at best - an uneven game tonight's 69-62 win against the U does allow classy seniors Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson to go out on a high note.  Both played great, actually played as we expected and hoped they would the entire season.  That didn't happen this year, but it did tonight.


Both Ginyard and Thompson stepped up (along with help from Wil Graves and the rising John Henson) when the Heels needed them to.  In the first half, after Miami has cut into a 16-point lead Ginyard led a mini-run to give Carolina a 10-point cushion at half. 


Ginyard and Henson also led a spirited charge coming out of halftime to give the Heels an 18-point lead.  After that margin was winnowed down to one, Graves and Thompson hit huge shots.  Thompson's gutty turn around jumper that gave Carolina a three-point was inspirational, coming seconds after he got back on the floor from visiting the locker room to treat a strained back.  And it was nice to see Ginyard help ice the game late; his free throws not only provided the final margin of victory but also gave him his first career double-double.  


This game was a reminder of the good times and grand careers of Thompson and Ginyard, but it was also a reminder that this team has not gotten much better as the season has progressed.  Against the Canes the Heels continued to turn the ball over, get complacent with a lead (a pattern that started against another Miami team, FIU, as the Heels bookended an uneven season with games against schools from America's Casablanca), and miss a lot of bad shots, shots a normal Carolina team would know not to take.


There were times - the start of each half, and the last four minutes of the first half when Henson simply took over - when the offense flowed.  But this uneven game mirrored an uneven season.


But at least the seniors won, we are no longer in last place, and we have momentum as we travel to Durham in hopes of sneaking out of Cameron with a fifth-straight win at Duke.  GO HEELS!


A few random notes, then to bed:

• The recent play of John Henson has been fantastic.  He's even blocking shots better, keeping two in play today to start fast breaks.  He still makes some mental mistakes, but this guy is progressing rapidly and will be a star next season.  
• Graves hit two big Danny Green-esque threes tonight to kill Miami's momentum.  He and Henson are by far the best stories of this year, and they've been are best players since Ed Davis got hurt.  Graves rebounded pretty well tonight, too.
• Speaking of Graves, perhaps THE play of the game was Thompson's inbounds pass to the Greensboro junior with 35 seconds left. Both Drew and MacDonald (he and Strickland were horrible tonight, completely clueless) came open first, but Thompson held the ball long enough for Graves, an 80 percent free throw shooter, to get open. Graves hit both shots to give us a working 5 point margin.  Smart play by the senior Thompson, the kind of trademark Carolina play that has been missing much of the season.