Carolina and Duke

As dawn breaks on the 2017 NCAA basketball tournament I am feeling very good about the Tar Heels' chances.  Look for Joel Berry in particular to be a beast, and try to make up for the foul trouble that plagued him and Carolina in the ACC tournament semi-final loss.

It took me a while to recover from the ACC tournament.  When I was growing up in North Carolina it was a life or death event; only the ACC tournament champion would go to the big dance back then. So winning the ACC tournament is not necessary for your team to have a successful season, but not winning it still stinks.  

Much like the loss of an election to Donald Trump can make you question everything about America, one loss to Duke can do the same about the state of Carolina basketball.  Almost 2 days later I still can not get over that loss.

The U.S. blowing a 5-0 lead to the DR in the World Baseball Classic that night did not help, nor did Duke's win over Notre Dame. To demonstrate how chaotic this sports weekend was (I drafted most of this blog on Sunday, March 12th), the only safe harbor in the weekend sports storm was the Wizards!  The normally forgotten and formerly hapless 'Zards!

[Coincidentally, as I type this I'm listening to 'You've Got To Lose' by Cesar Rosas, off his solo record Soul Disguise.]

Anyway, the loss to the Devils prompted me to see if the 'data' supported my sour mood about my beloved Tar Heels. I looked at the last 10 years, specifically at: our over all record; ACC regular season and tournament performance; head to head vs. Duke; All-ACC selections; finally NBA All Star-game selections, to see how we stack up against the Dookies. This exercise also reminded me of ol' Roys quote about last year's squad:  "I've never seen such a good team talked about like it was a bad team" like the 2016 Final Four team, or something like that.  No matter what the data shows, the Heels have been very good lately.

Here are what the numbers say, and though they are impressive Stephen Miller's alma mater has a slight edge, especially since the end of the Tyler Hansbrough era. FYI, Hansbrough is currently playing for the Ft. Wayne Mad Ants in the D League, where he had 12 and 17 in their last game. Gulp.

I will start with the good news: overall, UNC is 134 and 109 versus the devils. The bad news is we have a six-game losing streak versus the school that taught Richard Nixon the law in the ACC tournament. Our loss on Friday also means we are now 49-50 versus the devils in our last 99 games (I am too old to make a Jay Z reference here). Finally, the worst number: in the last ten years we are 8-14 against our nemesis from the Bull City. 

Overall, we are 285-84, for a .772 winning percentage, over the last 10 years. Impressive stuff, but the devils are 295-68 for an astounding .812 winning percentage.  

The other pieces of good news for Heels fans are:

• We lead in first place finishes in the regular season, 6 to 1. Our overall ACC record is 124-46 in that span while Duke, owing to our 5-11 season in 2010, bests us with a 127-43 mark.
• UNC has had 4 ACC Players of the Year - Justin Jackson, Tyler Zeller, Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough - against just 2 for Duke in Jahlil Okafor and Nolan Smith.  We also lead them in guys named Ty or Tyler.  
• Carolina has more NCAA wins, 25 to 22, and Final Four appearances, 3 versus 2, compared to the devils. We each have 7 losses in that ten-year span, with Dook losing twice in the first round. But at least they made the tournament those two years; the 2010 team is our blemish since we have only played in 9 of the last 10 NCAA tournaments while Duke is 10 for 10.

The flip side of those stats are:  

• They have 2 national championships to our one. UConn is the only other school with 2 championships in that span.
• Dook has 4 ACC tournament championships to our 2, and their record in the event is 19-6 while we are 17-8.
• Though we have had more ACC players of the year (4 to 2), they have had 12 first-team all ACC players to our nine.
• Thanks mainly to Kyrie "I believe the Earth is flat!" Irving, Ben Quayle's alma mater has had 6 NBA all stars in the last 10 years compared to only two for Michael Jordan's; Irving 3 times, Luol Deng twice and Carlos Boozer once. The last two UNC NBA all stars were Rasheed Wallace and Antawan Jamison, in 2008!  FYI, thanks for Chris Paul (9) and Tim Duncan (6) Wake Forest of all schools has had 16 NBA all stars in the last 10 years, with Jeff Teague picking up one selection.

Carolina goes into overtime and beats Villanova last year and these numbers are practically even. But that is sports for you; we honor the effort but the winners get the spoils.  

Finally, for a more cynical take, how about the the 'curse of Harrison Barnes'?  Barnes came to Carolina as perhaps the most celebrated recruit of all time (in college basketball, not just at Carolina).  While he had a great two-year run in Chapel Hill, Barnes did not live up to the incredible hype (except for perhaps the last two-thirds of his freshman year), and injuries to Kendall Marshall and John Henson in 2011 and 2012 derailed any hopes of a national championship or even a final four.  He was supposed to be Jordan and Worthy, with a little Wayne Ellington (a great outside shooter), rolled into one player. Instead he was more of an rich man's Reggie Bullock (who I love, BTW; love Barnes, too).  

Conversely, Kyrie Irving enrolled at Duke at the same time. Injuries limited him to only 7 games in Durham, but since then he has stolen Barnes' mojo. He was the number one pick in the NBA draft, has become a perennial All Star, started on the U.S. Olympic team while Barnes barely played, and even hit the game winning shot in the NBA finals last year. Irving has basically had the career that Barnes was supposed to have.  He's become the transcendental talent of his generation, a title scouts bestowed on Barnes in high school.

In time Barnes may become that kind of basketball savant. He is a very good player, but for now in the shadow of Kyrie Irving. 

I think I was right

After the Heels' win over Miami on the road I wondered if Carolina, the real Carolina, was back.  

Well, after yesterday's win, an almost 2009-style blowout over N.C. State, I think we are.  Granted, State is still one year away from being above average (or a year away from where Herb Sendak had them) but I loved the way the Heels played against the Wolfpack.

There were at least four things that had to make any Heels fan grin a Mama Dips-size smile.  

One, the Heels came out on fire and aggressive.  For whatever reason the Heels had come out flat in five straight games.  Though they were Trident-gum successful - winning four out of those five games - it was great to see the Heels impose their will on an opponent from the opening tip.  We're well known for great comebacks, but it's not a great habit to get into.  Good to see us throw the first punch.

Two, it was a punch mainly thrown by Harrison Barnes, who finally played a full game rather than putting together a few huge spurts and flourishes. Barnes looked electric against State, hitting shots from all over the floor, driving a few times, pulling down 6 boards, and hustling on defense. His confidence is starting to build, and Barnes is morphing into the player we expected - our best player, the new Hansbrough, the one who leads us deep into the NCAA tournament.

That brings me to point 3; to become our best player he will have to out play John Henson, who right now is the best Carolina player on the floor.  Henson had 16 points, an equal number of boards to go along with seven blocks. Like Barnes he is getting his points in a variety of ways, on dunks, hooks, short jumpers, put backs, even a few free throws!  It took him a while to figure out college basketball but he has, and Henson is thriving.  I love his skill, but am equally impressed by his patience, confidence and intelligence/decision making.  Otherwise known as being a Tar Heel.   

Finally, there is nothing that says Carolina basketball as much as "feeding the post," and against State we did that.  All three of our bigs, Henson, Zeller and Knox, finished in double figures as Marshall, Drew, Strickland, Barnes, Wanda, everyone, fed the post consistently on Saturday.

There were some lapses in the Heels' offense against State, and we probably let Brown get to the rack to easily in the second half.  But at the core of yesterday's win - Barnes' overall play, Henson's skill and savvy, feeding the post - was more proof that Carolina is back.

GO HEELS!

Few Random Notes:

• Heels are back, but some things have changed in North Carolina as the Old North State was America's winter sports capital this weekend.  How odd to think that Raleigh hosted the NHL All-star game the same weekend that Greensboro hosted the U.S. figure skating championships? When I was growing up there you couldn't buy a mixed drink let alone find ice.
• I wanted to root for Duke - and the ACC - against the Big East and St. John's today . . . but couldn't. I can't stand the Big East, but they are better than us this season.  Duke, on the other hand, looked bad, especially down low.  Hope we can exploit that and keep feeding the post against them in Cameron next week.  It appears to me that without Kyrie Irving at the point Duke is having trouble getting Singler enough shots, but I've only seen them play a few times.  Either way, without Irving they are not that scary.