Predictable results from Heels, Barnes versus BC

Carolina's 83-60 win over Boston College unfolded largely as expected.  The Heels were much more talented and simply better than the Eagles, who started 5 freshmen.  

The Heels predictably started slow then went on a run to take a comfortable lead at half time. Also predictably, the Heels got a bit bored after taking a 20-point lead in the second half. BC was able to cut the lead to 9 at one point before the Heels woke up.  Once Carolina did, the Heels went on another run to close the game out with a 23-point win.

There was some news in today's win.  The most significant item - also predictable - was Harrison Barnes' continued excellent play.  Barnes appears to be peaking at the perfect time of season, much like he did last year.  Against BC he hit shots from all over the floor - driving, taking 3s, a few one-dribble jumpers, the entire repertoire - and was very aggressive.  He had 4 steals, too, and looked like a player of the year candidate. 

It wasn't all Barnes, though.  I thought the Heels' defense was pretty good for most of the game.  Zeller had 20 points and held on to the ball, P.J. Hairston was 2 for 5 on three pointers, and Marshall once again had more than 10 assists.

With so many ACC teams stinking up the joint this year - Wake, Clemson, Maryland, and BC all pretty bad - these kinds of games may be the norm for the Heels.  The good news is you can count on 20-point wins despite some lapses in concentration, and the Heels have also shown that against good teams the Heels will rise to the occasion.   Those traits sound a lot like the 2009 team, a predictable comparison.

Speaking of 2009, a huge night for 3 members of that team tonight in the NBA.  Ty Lawson squared off with Danny Green tonight as the Nuggets took on the Spurs.  San Antonio won 121 to 117 behind Green's 24 points.  With Manu Ginobili out with broken hand Green is finally getting significant playing time in the League.


Lawson did his part for Denver, finishing with 20 and 10 assists.  


And Tyler Hansbrough finished with 15 and 7 off the bench, in 28 minutes, for Indiana in their win over the Charlotte Bobcats.  Psycho T has been in double figures every game this season for the 6 and 2 Pacers. 


GO HEELS!

A little nervous

I admit I'm a little nervous about tonight's road game versus Reggie Jackson and the BC Golden Eagles. I love the way the Heels have been playing lately, but worry that we may be tempting the fates with another road win. 

But getting that win would be huge.  Doing so would give the newly re-ranked Heels 6 wins, including 3 on the road (at UVA and at UM) and 16 for the season, both excellent numbers but especially outstanding when compared to last year's season.

In addition to gaining another road win, Heels everywhere will be watching to see if Harrison Barnes' upward trajectory continues, if we keep getting valuable contributions from Bullock, Drew, McDonald and Knox off the bench, and if Marshall continues to feed the post.  

More importantly, another win will feed the surging confidence of this year's squad.

ACC Preview

With Sierra Club closed for the holidays I've had time to make my fearless predictions for the upcoming ACC basketball season.  As it was last year, and really ever since 'ol Roy returned to Chapel Hill, it appears to be Carolina and Duke at the top, with as usual Clemson - joined this year by FSU - on the periphery.  


Looking back at last year's predictions I accurately predicted 4 out of 12 spots: UNC first; Duke tied for second (I predicted with Clemson but they tied with Wake); Virginia in 11th (at 4-12); Georgia Tech last (they finished 2-12; I predicted 3-13).  I was close with Virginia Tech, who finished at 7-9 and tied for 7th place after I predicted 8-8 and in 6th.


I really missed FSU; I thought they would finish at 6-10 and in 9th place but Leonard Hamilton surprised us all by going 10-6, finishing in 4th place, playing in the ACC tournament finals, and qualifying for the NCAA tournament.


It was kind of the same story with Wake Forest.  I predicted them to finish at 9-7 but their hot start to the ACC resulted in an upset of Carolina and a final record of 11-5.


I thought the U would do better than 7-9 (I picked 9-7).  I must have gotten them mixed up with BC, who I thought would go 7-9 but instead went 9-7.  I also missed Maryland by one game, which turned out to be their late-season upset of the eventual national champs.  The Terps ended up at 7-9 and qualified for the NCAA tournament, while I predicted 6-10


This year could very well mimic last season, with the biggest changes being a rising Georgia Tech and a sinking Boston College.  I underestimated BC last year, and their bad non-conference losses convinced me to do the same this year.  Before I get to my team-by-team break down, here is my predicted order of finish for the 2010 ACC:


Carolina 12-4
Duke 12-4
Clemson 9-7
FSU 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Georgia Tech 8-8
Maryland 7-9
Miami 7-9
Wake 7-9
NCSU 6-10
Boston College 6-10
Virginia 5-11


One huge factor is the unbalanced schedule.  Virginia Tech in particular benefits, as does Wake Forest. Conversely, Georgia Tech and to a lesser degree BC suffer.   The teams that play Virginia and NC State four times are the lucky ones.


Teams


Carolina
Despite playing the toughest schedule in the country - let alone the ACC - Carolina is still a work in progress and has not answered many questions as it heads into conference play.  In Monday's win against Rutgers the Heels were still experimenting with line ups. At different points in the game Carolina featured a small line up: Drew-Strickland-Graves-Thompson-Davis; and a big/huge line up: Drew-Wear-Wear-Zeller-Davis as Roy continues to look for some flow and consistency.  

The good news is Will Graves has been a bit better from the outside, Dexter Strickland has had back-to-back great games, and Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller have developed.  Davis appears to be the key; if he demands the ball and gets a lot of shots, as he did in the nice win over Michigan State, the Heels thrive.  


But Larry Drew is still inconsistent and the entire team continues to be sloppier with the ball than one would expect 13 games into the season. Finally, Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard have been up and down, sometimes from half-to-half let alone game-to-game. Neither have been David Noel, an unrealistic expectation since in 100 years of Carolina hoops there has only been a handful of leaders like the athletic forward from Durham (George Lynch, James Worthy?).


The bright side is Carolina is talented enough, and most of the league mediocre enough, for the Heels to finish in first place at 12-4, at least 11-5.


Duke
I see Duke matching Carolina at 12-4 or 11-5.  Duke - and John Scheyer - has looked good in defeating Gonzaga in Cameron, but struggled against a mediocre Wisconsin team in Madison. Look for the Dukies to mimic that pattern this year as they lose on the road to upper echelon teams like Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and likely Maryland and perhaps even Miami, though I think Carolina's 4-game winning streak at Cameron may end this season.


Clemson
I always pick Clemson third, at least since Oliver Purnell established himself as the third-best coach in the ACC of late (though Gary Williams should be considered the third-best coach since he is one of three current ACC coaches with a national championship).  Trevor Booker is back and Demontez Stitt is more experienced at the point. It's hard to see this team winning less - or more - than 9 games this year.


Florida State
There appears to be talent in Tallahassee despite the graduation of Toney Douglas. The problem is it's sitting next to Leonard Hamilton. Solomon Alabi leads a fairly experienced squad, and the Noles have already stolen a road game at Georgia Tech. Like Clemson, they seem a lock for 9 wins, with winnable games at Maryland and at home versus Georgia Tech.  If they win those two they could finish third with 10 or 11 wins.


Virginia Tech
Perhaps the most intriguing team in the ACC.  A decent amount of talent returning, led by Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. And the Hokies have actually won some tough games so far: at Penn State; at Iowa; and over Georgia on a neutral floor. I have them going 8-8 but they could finish 9-7 with a win at Virginia or at NC State or Boston College.  This team could move up in the standings if they have some luck.


Georgia Tech
Second most intriguing team in the ACC is the Yellow Jackets.  They feature super-freshman Derrick Favors and returnees like Gani Lawal.  The Jackets should finish 8-8 if they win one or two road games (Virginia, but the rematch with FSU in Tallahassee will be huge) and defeat Duke or Carolina in Atlanta.


Maryland
I can't wait for Greivis Vasquez to graduate so I can stop reading his endless variations on the 'us against them' quote in The Post.  Look for the Terps to underachieve again this year and repeat their 7-9 record of a season ago.  Problem for Maryland is they have lost all three of their important non-conference games, to Villanova, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Last year, wins over Michigan and Michigan State helped them qualify at 7-9 for the NCAA tournament. But I don't think they will be so lucky this season.


Miami
The Hurricanes lost Jack McClinton but have a slew of young players and surprisingly have already defeated Minnesota and South Carolina, two decent teams.  If the U beats Duke in the Gables and/or defeats a team like Virginia on the road they could finish with as many as 9 wins.  If they do - with wins over Duke, Minnesota, and the Gamecocks - the Hurricanes should return to the NCAA tournament.


Wake Forest
Hard to gauge the Deacons, who have lost at home to William and Mary but travelled to Spokane and defeated Gonzaga.  Chances are both Dino Gaudio and the Zags are overrated, so I have Wake going 7-9 without any road wins in the ACC, though if they somehow upset the Heels at home or Virginia on the road they could go 8-8.  A number of their road games are winnable - at NC State, at Miami - but I'm cynical about Wake's chances.


NC State
Looks like another down year for the Pack. Things have gotten so bad at State I actually feel sorry for their students and coach Sidney Lowe (well, not their students).  State has defeated Jeff Lebo's average Auburn Tigers and Marquette, but has also lost to Northwestern and a rebuilding Arizona squad.  Looks like another 6 win season for the Wolfpack.


Boston College
The Eagles surprised everyone by winning 9 games last year and defeating Carolina in Chapel Hill.  And they have beaten Michigan on the road this season. But they have also lost to Harvard for the second year in a row, St. Josephs, and to lesser teams like the University of Northern Iowa and Rhode Island (they did beat UMass, so are 1-2 vs. the Atlantic 10).  Like last year, I'm predicting a 6 (maybe 7) win season.


Virginia
The Cavaliers hired Tony Bennett, the defensive-minded coach of Washington State and son of legendary coach Dick Bennett, to clean up after Dave Leitao.  I have a feeling this guy will be severely overmatched in the ACC, especially regarding recruiting.  Virginia has already lost four times, to Penn State - at home - and to average teams like Auburn, South Florida and Johnny Dawkins' Stanford Cardinal.  So Bennett is already 0-2 vs. teams coached by former ACC point guards.  Five wins would be impressive this year for Virginia.


The good news is ACC play is right around the corner, so the speculation and predictions will yield to actual games.  My hope is that my prediction for the Heels comes true, but also that things go the right way for bubble teams such as Virginia Tech and Miami and the ACC gets six or seven teams into the NCAA tournament.  It would also be great if someone other than Carolina went deep into the tournament, especially teams like Clemson or Georgia Tech as a way of showing that the ACC is more than a two-team league.


I hope these predictions spark some commentary, and remember to vote in the www.carolina-hellenicblue.blogspot.com poll, too.


Go Heels!

Two Great Comebacks Against BC

It's hard to figure out where to begin in blogging about Carolina's great win this afternoon against Boston College. 

So I guess I'll start with the obvious - the great comeback from 18 points down in the second half en route to a 90-80 road win.  Add this game to the list of celebrated Carolina comebacks.  The Heels trailed by 14 at the half and the deficit quickly ballooned to 18 after two more Rice baskets two minutes into the final stanza.  Rice was out of his head on fire in the first half on his way to 34 points.

Since this is a Carolina and Hellenic blog, I'll remind folks that among the greatest sins - perhaps the greatest sin - to the ancient Greeks was hubris.  Rice was hot, but I believe his hubris - exemplified by his fanning of himself after his seventh made three pointer - offended the Carolina Comebacks gods, a pantheon that includes Cunningham, Bradley, Jordan, Lynch and Dean.  

Perhaps for that reason, no matter how hot Rice was and even after the Heels got down by 18, this was one of those games where you just knew the Heels were somehow going to win.   I've blogged this before, but that is just one of those feelings a Tar Heel gets.

One reason you feel it is the coaching of folks like Dean and ol' Roy.  Roy pulled the starters after Rice's second basket of the second half gave the Eagles the 18-point lead.  Whatever Roy said to his starters worked.

The other thing Roy said in the second half that worked was "Danny, go in for . . . "  My man Danny Green was phenomenal today, hitting 3 three-point shots during a 22-3 run that fueled Carolina's comeback.   He finished 4 of 8 on three pointers, and with 18 points and 7 boards.   Green just oozed confidence on his jump shots, and came off the bench with a determined looked on his face that said "Enough is enough; time for me to lead the Heels to a win today."  He did.

Of course, he had help from Wayne Ellington.  At half time I told Ariadne and Evan, 'don't worry, the Heels are going to win this game, and it would be a lot easier if Ellington got hot.'  Well, safe to say he got hot.   After scoring only two points in the first half, Ellington hit two huge threes and showed off his new, varied and complete floor game.  In addition to going two for five on threes, he finished 7 for 12 for 20 points, and 3 steals. Ellington was excellent on both ends of the floor - this guy is no longer simply a three-point shooter - and was as good as any college player in the country in the second half.

Ellington was not alone in playing great defense in the second half;  Green, Ginyard  and the entire team did a nice job, especially on Rice.  Carolina was quick to double team in the final 20 minutes, and also did a great job of playing the passing lanes.   The comeback was fueled by steals and forced turnovers as much as it was by Green and Ellington.

The defense of Rice in the second half  brings me to the second great comeback in the game. I'm of course referring to the return of Ty Lawson.   

How great was it to see Lawson check into the game in the first half?  Me, I was visually and audibly giddy. Offensively Lawson didn't really look for his shot, but he did manage 5 assists in 21 minutes.   And Ty did have one of his patented blow-bys to the rack.  

But defense was where Lawson dramatically impacted this game.  In the first half Rice hit a number of tough and contested shots, with Q in is face on most the them.  The difference in the second half was that Lawson's pressure on Rice kept him from a) getting any open looks at all, and b) initiating any kind of offense for the Eagles.   

I loved the defense, but loved seeing him on the floor even more.

 

Finally, as great as Green and Ellington were, how about Tyler Hansbrough? Psycho T finished with a game high 25 points and 9 rebounds.  He also had the assist on Green's first three of the second half.   More importantly, he single handedly kept the Heels in the game in the first half.

The other guy who helped keep the Heels in striking distance despite the onslaught from Rice was Will Graves.  He scored 5 quick and calming points late in the first half, and also picked up a nifty steal.  Quality minutes at a key time from our only freshman.

A great team effort and great comeback from the Heels today.  It was a great game to watch and a great win.  

Finally, the win coupled with losses by Tennessee, Memphis, and others this week means that the Heels will probably be number one on Monday.   What a nice tribute to Quentin Thomas as he prepares for senior night on Wednesday against Florida State.   No one, including me, thought that he could do what he has done - including leading the Heels to the number one spot in the polls - these last seven games. 

Congrats, Q.  Let's hope your senior season ends the same way your freshmen year did.  

A Few Hoops Notes:

• Lots of big games lately and left on the ACC schedule.  How about that huge win by Maryland on Thursday at Wake Forest behind James Gist's 31 points?  Talk about rising to the occasion; who does Gist think he is, Danny Green?  
• The Deacons lost again today at Georgia Tech, and are now 6-8 with games at Virginia Tech and at home to State left.  A win over Maryland would have given them a great chance to get to 9-7 in the league; now they have to win in Blacksburg to get to 8 wins.  Even then, they would probably have to win at least one game in the ACC tournament.
• Kudos to Maryland for the impressive road win.  If they defeat Clemson in College Park for their ninth conference win on Sunday they should be in the tournament.  
• Even if they lose to Maryland tomorrow, Clemson should get to nine wins if they defeat Virginia Tech at home next weekend, and have an outside chance to get to 10 wins in conference if they can beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
• Virginia Tech can also get to 9 wins by defeating Wake at home on Tuesday.
• Miami's late season surge continued today with win at home over Virginia.   The Canes remaining games are at home to BC and at FSU. Both are winnable, and the U is almost guaranteed to finish with at least 8 wins in conference.
• Tough but explainable loss for State today against Duke.  State just doesn't have the fortitude to compete and win games like Carolina or Duke does.  I bet every fan in the RBC Center felt the dread and certainty that somehow the Pack was going to lose despite holding a 13-point lead with 5 minutes left.  
• Virginia lost despite 41 points from Sean Singetary and leading at half.  Interesting to note both teams with 40+ scorers lost today in the ACC.
• Finally, despite the loss the Cavaliers are playing with some spunk and passion, and will beat Duke this week in Charlottesville.  
• My guess is the ACC gets six teams in the tournament: Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Miami, though Wake could sneak in if they finish 8-8 and win a game or two in the ACC tournament.

Two totally random notes:

• I had probably the best beer I've ever had this week on Wednesday night.  Navin Nayak took me to The Saloon on U Street ("No TV, No Standing") where I feasted on Saxo, an organic, monk-brewed beer from Belgium.  So I was giddy twice on Saturday: when Lawson checked into the game, and when I found Saxo at Rodman's.
• I got a hair cut today, and usually when I ask about a possible bald spot on my head my barber Panayoti always says 'get out of here; I'm bald and I know bald and you are not starting to go bald.'  But today when I asked my Greek-Cypriot friend said, "Well, you're not as bald as me."