Oh well

What a big day, one that makes it hard for a Carolina fan to focus. The good news is Carolina was rewarded for a 14-2 ACC regular season with a number one seed in the Midwest regional.  More on my brackets later in the show.

Yet, it is hard not to lament the game - and ACC Tournament Championship - that got away this afternoon in Atlanta.  The 3-point loss to Florida State was an entertaining game, and a reminder that even in a down year, the ACC still produces the nation's best basketball.

The hardest part of looking back at today's game is typing this next line: Carolina had the ball, down by one with 11 seconds left, and lost.

That simply is not supposed to happen.

What is? The Heels make a few passes, get the defense out of position, and hit a short shot - and usually get fouled - to win the game.

But not today. And not this year, so far.  The same scenario unfolded in Lexington in December's loss to Kentucky.

Today, all-everything (but second team All-ACC) Kendall Marshall missed a wide open three pointer with 7 seconds left against FSU to seal the first ever ACC championship for the Seminoles.  

In hindsight, Marshall should have driven into the lane for either a lay up, a foul on FSU, or to pass to Zeller or Barnes.  Instead, he shot a hair early, and missed.  

But it's hard to fault Marshall. Though he did not have a great game, with some odd turnovers to start the second half, he had just hit a big 3 twenty seconds earlier to bring the Heels within one - and was wide open.  

Still, we've come to expect that Marshall never makes a mistake. The shot was not a mistake, but taking it when he did, 3 or 4 seconds too early, probably was.

Oh well.

The only thing that makes the loss semi palatable - besides the knowledge that the NCAA tournament awaits, and the last 2 Carolina national champs also failed to win the ACC tournament when coincidentally injuries to McCants and Lawson also played a role in 'ol Roy's coaching decisions - is that:

1. The Heels played hard, and rallied from a 16-point deficit
2. Carolina almost pulled it out despite playing without John Henson (and Dexter Strickland)
3. FSU played really well, and made tough shots, especially by Luke Loucks and Michael Snaer (he was impressive; his 3 at the 8 minute mark was huge and stemmed a Carolina run), and Bernard James came up with 2 huge blocks late.  The Seminoles made plays when they had to.
4. P.J. Hairston looked great, hitting 3 three-pointers and turning the game around for the Heels in the second half
5. Harrison Barnes joined Hairston on that run, and looked assertive and focused all day which should carry over nicely into the NCAA tournament

This loss could provide a great springboard, not just because it was a loss but Carolina had to fight.  That same kind of fight will be needed in the next 3 weeks and ideally 6 games for the Heels, games that will hopefully feature John Henson.

With our regular rotation, plus a rejuvenated bench and a more rested Kendall Marshall (5 days off!), I love this team's chances.  

GO HEELS!

 

First draft of my NCAA picks

As I mentioned above, the NCAA tournament should provide some measure of payback for the Heels, three weeks to straighten out Carolina's karmic balance sheet.  

The basketball gods owe us.  Well,maybe not the gods, since my first draft bracket looks more like a Charles Bronson movie: 

• Carolina gets revenge for the 2008 Final Four and beats Kansas in the Midwest regional final;
• Then we get revenge for losing to FSU twice (Dean always said it was hard to beat a team 3 times in a season) by finally taking down the Noles in the national semi-final in Nawlins; 
• And finally, the Heels get revenge for losing to Kentucky in last year's regional final, and in December, in the national championship game. 

Simple, right?  GO HEELS!

Turning ugly into victory

Ugly seems to be the theme of many a Carolina win this season, none more so than today's victory over State in the ACC tournament semi-finals.

Ugly - let me count the ways:

• No John Henson
• Tyler Zeller fouls out
• Harrison Barnes went 3 for 12
• James Michael McAdoo and Kendall Marshall were also in foul trouble
• Carolina had to utilize their fourth-string point guard - in the first half!

Yet, save for Henson all those players stepped up to help will the Heels to a tough win over a determined Wolfpack.

Zeller was generally unstoppable on his was to 23 points on 8 for 11 shooting.  The strategy of 'give it to Zeller and have him score or foul out the other team' helped win this game today.

Barnes left a dozen points on the rim, but his aggressiveness midway through the second half changed the game in Carolina's favor.  He seemed to recognize that his shot wasn't falling so it was time to take it to the rack, which usually resulted in free throws and points.  Barnes' one-man run was huge.

McAdoo struggled at times in his first career start, but did finish with 9 points.

But this game belonged to Marshall and Watts.  When my brother asked me 'How did Carolina win this game" I muttered "Uh, Marshall and Watts made plays" but struggled to come up with any other info on the game.

Marshall had an uneven game, but came up big at the end with his game-winning drive.  And for the record, that was not a charge.  The State defender had to lean into Marshall to even get close to charge position.  And philosophically, on that kind of play the benefit of the doubt goes to the offense.  More on this point later.

It wasn't just that last drive; Marshall made play after play in the second half, and his offensive game is now legit - and dangerous for the other team.

But what can you say about Justin Watts?  He played point guard when Marshall got into foul trouble, spelled McAdoo at power forward when he picked up his fourth foul, then made THE play of the game with his steal - under the State basket - with less than 5 seconds left.  Watts played 18 crucial minutes, and saved the game, turning ugly into victory along the way.

GO HEELS

•  I would have been happy with either FSU or Duke as Carolina's opponent tomorrow.  The chance to smite Duke again would have been great, but I think most Tar Heels fan like the idea of avenging the loss in Tallahassee.
• It should be quite a slug fest between two big front lines, especially if the Heels are again without Henson. 
• Neither FSU nor Duke looked that smooth on offense, so if Carolina can shut down Snaer and James, with Bullock and Zeller, we should be okay.  Of course, that assumes we also shut down Dulkys so Marshall, Watts and Barnes also need to step up on D.
• I like our chances though. Revenge is a powerful motivator.  Look for a focused Barnes to lead the Heels to another ACC championship, 77 to 65.

Finally, some more thoughts on charges and blocking fouls.

The referees really stunk in this game, at both ends for both teams.  

In general, college basketball refs have not had a good season, and it seems that down the stretch of this ACC season they have gone charge crazy.  

I've blogged/ranted on this point before, but to me at least most of these charges should be called blocking fouls.  

One, the team with the ball should get the benefit of the doubt.  They are instigating the action, and should NOT be penalized for that. As it is in baseball, where a tie goes to the runner, in basketball a close play should be called a blocking foul, not a charge.

Two, too often charging calls reward lazy defense. Things have improved with the NCAA adopting the NBA semi-circle under the basket so that players literally can't just wait for the offense to come to them. For years, Duke would just plant a player under the hoop and wait for drivers to run into them and draw a cheap charging foul.

But that style of  'waiting for an offensive player to run into me' defense is still utilized by teams outside that semi-circle - and referees reward them for it.  It makes no sense.  

If a defensive player is NOT set once the player with the ball leaves his or her feet, that's a blocking foul. It's unfair to the offensive player to be called for charging for running into a defender who slides over to where that player is going to land.  The offensive player is penalized for abiding by the laws of gravity.  

Again, the offense should be given the benefit of the doubt, and the defensive team should actually guard someone by moving their feet and not be rewarded for acting like a statue.