March Madness vs. the BCS

Lot of funny Tweets last night about the horrible national championship game between Butler and UConn.  Anyone but a UConn grad has to agree that there were NO shining moments in last night's game (that was one of my tweets).  

Of course, for me one recurring thought was 'Carolina would have waxed both of these squads.' But forget Carolina, how did Kentucky lose to UConn and how did VCU lose to Butler?  Odd to see how nervous and tight Butler was considering they were in the Final Four a year ago and feature lots of seniors in their rotation.  

But I don't want to spend a lot of time analyzing last night's game.

The most provocative Tweet of the night was from Jason Whitlock, who basically said: "two mediocre teams battling for the national championship; this kind of game would never happen in the BCS."

The one-and-done format is exciting and produces a fair number of upsets every year, but the BCS defenders do have a point.  The NCAA tournament does not always produce a national champion that is the best team in country.  

Sometimes that does happen. Carolina was the best team in the country in 2005 and 2009; ditto Florida the two years they won, UConn in 2004, Duke in 2001.  But the last two national champs have been mediocre at best.

Of course, the BCS does not always produce a national champion who is clearly the best college football team in the country either; just ask TCU.

That's why some of the proposed, modified BCS-tournament seems to be the best system.  A scenario put forth by Sports Illustrated and others would feature a tournament of the top 16 teams. 

That would work in football, but I imagine most college basketball fans would rather see teams like Butler, VCU and George Mason have a chance to make the Final Four than shrink the size of the tournament so there are fewer upsets.  Fewer upsets mean the best teams are more likely to win the national championship, and I personally would support shrinking the size of the tournament to facilitate that possibility.

But shrinking the size of the NCAA tournament - to favor power teams and conferences - is as likely as a playoff system in college football.  So when looking back at this NCAA tournament fans should remember the runs made by VCU and Butler and not a championship game that was so bad it should come with an asterisk.

Almost a perfect day

Great to see (though I missed most of the game on a plane) pull out a tough win yesterday over Washington.  Best part was we got contributions from everyone, especially Strickland on D and O. 

Harrison Barnes was once again his clutch self nailing that huge 3 late, Zeller was steady and unstoppable in the second half, and KButter5 had a great second half.

Downside was not much defense on anyone not named Isaiah Thomas.  But got to give it up for Strickland's effort on Washington's best player.

The other downside, Duke pulling it out against Michigan.

And though I'm not happy when the Hansbrough family is sad great to see FSU make it to the Sweet 16.  My years in Tallahassee have made FSU my (distant) second-favorite ACC school.  Not only did the Noles advance, over a Big East team, it gives the ACC 3 teams in the Sweet 16 - the most of any conference.

The dozens of readers of this space now I think the Big East is overrated, and this weekend's games prove it.  Odd to see Marquette as one of the survivors.   UConn makes sense, and I'll be pulling hard for the Huskies to beat Dook if they manage to defeat Arizona (a tough out),  but I thought Pitt was the only other legit Big East team.  I guess I gave that un-offfensive minded conference too much credit.

GO HEELS!

Travel Notes

I type this in the Frankfurt Airport, a nice enough place but not very efficient.  Getting our boarding passes and going through security here took forever.  

But the good news is we'll be in Athens in a few hours, and Ariadne has been a great travel companion - very mellow - despite some difficult connections.

NCAA Tournament Observations

Besides watching the Heels lose the other big outrage from today is the field of 68.

• Sure, the ACC was down.  And Virginia Tech is a pretty stinky team in general: not that skilled, not well coached and thus not that focused.   But how the selection committee thought that VCU or UAB was better than the Hokies is beyond me.
• The new 68-team field stinks.  It should have stayed at 64.  The possibility, no matter how remote, that one team would have to play 7 games is unfair. I don't even want to fill in those four games in my bracket; it a charade. Go back to the old system, but select better committee members.
• Villanova, Marquette, and Cincinnati - whose strength of schedule was similar to snubbed Colorado's - did not deserve bids. In a fit of anti-BEast bias I'm picking Clemson to beat UAB, then take down West Virginia in the second round. Ditto Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois or Penn State.  Boston College would have beaten those last 6 teams, and probably Villanova the way the Wildcats finished the season.
• Alabama beats Georgia 3 times, and GEORGIA gets in?

My first draft Final Four has Carolina, UConn, Kansas and I guess Pitt.

EAST

Carolina has a decent but challenging draw.  They'll have to beat Syracuse and their zone, which will be a challenge but Barnes, McDonald and Marshall have been hot of late.  Then the Heels have to take down overall number one seed Ohio State.  If Carolina was not in that bracket I would pick the Buckeyes in a walk to make the Final Four. 

I don't expect many upsets in the East, other than Clemson over West Virginia, and Georgia beating Washington.

WEST

Duke has a semi-difficult draw for a change; no Baylor or West Virginia on the horizon like last year. I have some PIRG solidarity for UConn, and Kemba Walker is hot again.  It's their bracket to lose to me. 

This bracket features not one but TWO games featuring four teams from power conferences that nonetheless stink: Tennessee versus Michigan, and Missouri and Cincinnati.  I have Tennessee and Missouri winning.   No real upsets here, just stinky games.

Tennessee may give Duke trouble, but like many I see Texas taking the Devils out, and for UConn to end San Diego State's 15 minutes of fame.

SOUTHWEST

This bracket is sound and fury signifying nothing.  There may be some interesting background noise from my sleeper team but Kansas will make the Final Four. My sleeper school is Morehead State.  I have them taking down Louisville and Vanderbilt to go to the sweet 16 before losing to the Jayhawks.

I went back and forth on FSU-Notre Dame and Georgetown-USC. I ended up picking FSU to lose to Notre Dame in a game that will feature little scoring (even though they are a Big East team it's hard to pick against a Hansbrough; big brother Tyler had 29 points tonight, his fourth consecutive 20 point game, to single-handedly take down the Knicks).  I guess Georgetown will defeat USC but no way they handle Purdue. 

SOUTHEAST

Is this the year Pitt makes the Final Four for the first time since World War II?  Probably, since their bracket is full of bad basketball teams.  Wisconsin, Florida, and St. John's are the other top four seeds, hardly world beaters. Lot of toss up games - UCLA vs. Michigan State, UF versus that winner,  BYU vs. St. John's.  My other sleeper - Utah State - is in this bracket.  I have them in the sweet 16 before losing to Pitt.  

Of course, I have Carolina winning the national championship, taking down UConn and Kansas (payback for 2008) in Houston.  I love our four dudes - Zeller, Henson, Marshall and Barnes - and see them getting hot enough to win six in a row.

GO HEELS!

Should NOT Go Up to 11

After watching the Carolina-Duke game for the sixth time in the last four days, I tuned into a little of the Big East tournament tonight.  I've always thought the Big East was overrated, this year and every year.  Year and year, teams in that conference are usually not skilled at a key basketball skill called "making baskets."  

Other than being bad at the main goal of the endeavor, it's a great league (honest, why would ESPN lie?).

So after watching some Big East action, and checking on the records of some of the teams in that conference, I am more convinced than ever that there is NO WAY the Big East deserves 11 bids.  

Pitt and Notre Dame are good teams playing well, and Syracuse, Louisville and St. Johns each won two-thirds of their conference games (though Louisville lost to Drexel and they only have one real quality non-conference win over UNLV; St. Johns defeated Duke but lost to Fordham and St. Bonaventure).

Those 5 are legit, as are UConn - with wins over Tennessee (a team that beat Pitt), Texas, Kentucky and Michigan State - though there were only 9-9 in conference.  Georgetown is limping-out the season without an injured Chris Wright; the Hoyas have lost 5 of their last 6.  But you have to keep them in the big dance due to their wins over Memphis, Missouri, and Old Dominion.  

Up to 7 bids for the Big East.

But the other teams often discussed - West Virginia, Cincinnati, Villanova and Marquette- have very weak cases for making the NCAA tournament.  All four feasted on bottom dwellers like DePaul, South Florida, and Rutgers.  Conversely, none of those squads have more than one impressive win.

West Virginia defeated Vanderbilt, but lost to Miami, Minnesota - two legit teams - but also to Marshall.  They have one win.

Villanova has been exposed as a fraud, losing 5 in a row and going 5 and 10 in their last 15 games.  Their best wins were early in the season to UCLA and Temple, but they too lost to Tennessee.  They do not deserve a bid.

Cincinnati has one of the weakest cases of all.  To their credit, they have no losses to Marshall or Drexel.  But their best win out of conference is Xavier.  That's it.

As weak as the Bearcats' bid is, Marquette's is even weaker. They are 19-13, and 9-9 in conference  with NO good wins outside the Big East.  They did manage to lose to every legit team on their schedule: Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and Vanderbilt. 

Maybe the Big East, a conference with approximately 47 member schools, should have 7 bids, perhaps 8 to reward West Virginia for defeating Vanderbilt.  But anything more than 8 is a joke.