Socrates and March Madness

Socrates famously said "Why do you think I should drink hemlock?"  


He also said 'all I know is I know nothing.'  That is certainly appropo for me and the NCAA Tournament.  I thought this would be a pretty boring tournament but Thursday was anything but (of course, since Carolina is not in this year I didn't watch much of it, but I read it was a terrific day).  


Friday, yes, was boring, with the inevitable wins by number 1 seeds and the continued frustrations of Clemson and Florida State.  Oliver Purnell has yet to win an NCAA tournament game at Clemson, and they should have defeated a mediocre Missouri team.  And FSU is FSU, and perhaps always will.


For me the biggest upset - bigger than Murray State beating Vanderbilt, a game Obama called on ESPN - was the ninth best team in the MAC dominating Georgetown.  The Hoyas, who's system has been predicated on tough defense since John Thompson built the program in the late 1970s, gave up 97 points in 40 minutes to Ohio, a team that had a losing record in the Mid America Conference.


As a whole the Big East took a beating in the first round, and it should have been worse since Villanova did NOT deserved to defeat Robert Morris. 


But enough looking back.  Here is my quick look at this weekend's games (these picks are not intended to be the basis for any wagering; but if you remember Socrates' take on my picks why would you?):



Kansas will get a very tough game from UNI and everyone's favorite Iowa-born Iranian-American Ali Faroukmanesh. 


Michigan State should have lost in round one, and Maryland looked good but not flashy against Houston and will take down the Spartans.


Ohio vs. Tennessee is a toss up, but I don't think Ohio will play as well and Tennessee will not play as bad as in round one so I'm picking the Vols.


Ohio State looks Final Four worthy with the kind of dynamic leader in Evan Turner that often leads to good runs in the NCAA tournament.  Georgia Tech has it's hands full, but at least Paul Hewitt won an NCAA tournament game.


Syracuse will swamp Gonzaga.


This will be an interesting game as methodical Butler takes on athletic Murray State.  Butler handled a similarly athletic UTEP in the first round  and I think they will do the same and advance to their second sweet 16 in three years.


A semi-upset as the A-10s Xavier knocks off a Pitt team that limped into the post season.  That said, Jamie Dixon may be the coach of the year; Panthers lost almost as much talent as Carolina did but recovered to have a very good season. 


BYU over K-State is a real upset, but I'm not impressed by the Wildcats but am by Jimmer Whatshisname.  Any other year he would have the best name in the field but Jimmer has the unfortunate luck of playing in Faroukmanesh's shadow.


Why some, including my main man Hubert Davis, think a Dino Gaudio-coached team can upset Kentucky is beyond me.  If Wake Forest upsets the Cats I will eat my hat (note: I am not wearing a hat; offer not valid in areas without Congressional representation).


I wanted to pick Cornell over Temple but went with the A-10 for some reason.  This is a legit team that barely lost to Kansas in Lawrence this season.  Plus, Wisconsin plays at Cornell's pace so look for them to out badger the Badgers. 


My new dark horse is Washington and their dude Poindexter. Look for an easy win over an overrated New Mexico.


Can't believe Missouri beat Clemson, but West Virginia will send them home a day later than expected.


Duke should avenge their 1993 lose to Jason Kidd's Golden Bears but this will be tight game for the Devils.


Texas A&M will win a game no one cares about.


My sleeper final four team, Baylor, will have an easier time with the Monarchs than they did with Sam Houston State.


I compete my upset picks with taking St. Mary's over an overrated Villanova team.  The Gaels, despite have TWO girls names, are big inside - a weakness of the Wildcats.


So there you have it - either you heard it here first or 'all I know is I know nothing.'

Not very satisfying

To say the least, today was NOT a very satisfying day of basketball.  

The 'best' news of the day - and boy is THAT a relative term - was Carolina qualifying for the NIT.  The Heels play William and Mary on Tuesday night.  Hard to get excited about that, even with the nostalgic return to Carmichael. Pretty interesting imagery; Carmichael signifies a return to an era of less hoopla and hype, but also is an acknowledgement that though not actually going back in time the 2010 season was a step back for the program. 

Speaking of going back in time, interesting to juxtapose Carolina's recent national success with Duke's recent run at the ACC tournament.  Their win today gave Duke 18 ACC titles, one more than Carolina; the Devils really piled up the wins during the Guthridge-Doherty era but have also won the last two championships.  I think it is the only major hoops category where the Heels trail the Devils.  

That's not the only role reversal.  In the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Duke went to 7 Final Fours in 9 years, many commentators and fans opined that Krzyzewski and Duke had broken with tradition and were emphasizing national success over ACC success.  I remember Dean complaining at the time that though the Heels were winning 3 ACC championships during that span everyone thought Carolina was slumping.  

But as you know, that has now flip-flopped.  Duke has won 9 out of the last 12 ACC tournaments but has only been to the Final Four three times in that span (not counting this year), and have not made the Final Four since 2004 (haven't made it past the sweet 16 actually). Carolina has been to the Final Four three times just since 2004, and has won two National Championships in the last 5 years. And during that 12-year ACC run Carolina has been to more Final Fours, 5 to 3, than Duke.

So Duke has done well regionally but Carolina much better nationally, with more Final Fours and National Championships - both in the last 12 years and overall - than the right-wingers from Duke.

Duke's lack of success in the NCAA tournament - despite nice runs in the ACC tournament - may also be a testament to how weak the conference has been since coaches like Dean Smith, Bobby Cremins, Jim Valvano and even Jeff Jones have left, and since football expansion.  Except for Gary Williams, the ACC has been an easy conference to dominate post-Dean - that is until Roy showed up. 

Pretty lackluster day for the NCAA tournament, too.  It looks like a fairly boring bracket; there are too many weak teams like Utah State, Minnesota, and Florida in this year's field, and it would NOT be a big surprise to see the top 2 seeds in each regional advance to the elite eight.

And not to sound too Duke obsessed, but they got a very easy bracket.  A second-round game versus Louisville could be difficult, and Baylor is supposed to be tough. But the Waco-based hoopsters might not make that far, having to play Notre Dame and Villanova for the right to take down the Devils (an enticing prospect for a Baptist school).  That said, I expect Duke to lose in the second or fourth round due to fatigue.

The bad news for Syracuse is they will have to go west, through Salt Lake City, to reach the Final Four.  The good news is the long flight to Utah may be their biggest inconvenience.   The west regional looks pretty tame, with an overrated 2 seed, Kansas State, and slumping 3 and 4 seeds (Pitt and Vanderbilt, respectively).  Perhaps Butler will give the Cuse a game, but that may be it.

The other brackets are much tougher, especially the midwest. Kansas should advance in the Midwest, but could be tested by UNLV in the second round and by either Ohio State or the winner of Georgetown-Tennessee.  To me, Tennessee if one of the few intriguing teams in the tournament, and I'll be rooting for ACC/neighbor Maryland to make some noise in that region.

Kentucky may have the toughest bracket.  They have to deal with either Temple or Wisconsin, both potential giant killers in the round of 16, then may have to take on West Virginia in the battle of "States that want the US to continue with our 19th century energy policy." 

So my final four are: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, and my crazy wild card pick, Baylor.

Random NCAA Notes:

• Virginia Tech got hosed. The third-place team in the ACC is one of the best 65 best teams in the country - period.  Case closed.  But especially when compared to moops like Utah State and Florida.
• A sentimental favorite is Notre Dame, with Ben Hansbrough at the two guard spot.  Can the Hansbroughs make it back-to-back Final Fours?
• Temple is one dark horse pick for the sweet 16.  The A-10 is a quality mid-major, and the Owls defeated Villanova this year and have a good draw (though Cornell is a tough out). 
• Besides Duke the ACC teams have challenging draws.  Maryland will likely get Michigan State in the second round, with Kansas waiting.  
• Tech will probably defeat Oklahoma State but gets Ohio State as a reward.  The Yellow Jackets match up well with the Buckeyes but that will be a tough foe.
• Florida State gets Gonzaga then perhaps Syracuse.  No way the Noles win more than one game in the tournament.  
• Texas and Wake Forest meet in a 'man are we in a slump' first-round game.  Texas finished 7-9, with Wake one game better in their last 16 games at 8-8.  Hard to have any faith in Wake, but luckily they play a team playing just as bad as they are.  Either team will likely get run over my Kentucky in the second round.
• Clemson should give Oliver Purnell his first NCAA win over Missouri (another undeserving team) before probably bowing out to West Virginia though the Tigers will give the Mountaineers a game.  That will be in interesting second round match up.