Back? On Track for Greece

On one of my earlier blogs about the Greek crisis, I semi-cynically observed that though it's bad news at least Greece is back IN the news.  Over the course of the last 3,000 years or so, Greece was usually at the center of the universe, making news, setting the agenda, etc.  In modern times, however, Greece has not been as relevant or newsworthy.  Of course, that changed with the crisis. 

But I lament even saying that with tongue in cheek. Being in the news for a devastating financial crisis is certainly not a silver lining to no longer being an afterthought.  

Every Sunday lately, and yesterday was no different, there have been long stories about what Greek society looks like now in the wake of drastic government cuts, EU imposed austerity, and a stagnant and shrinking economy.

Sunday's New York Times article on Greece - saying the motherland is basically a failed state - was much more depressing that last week's New York Times Sunday Magazine story on 'How Greeks Live Now.'  The latter article at least included some hopeful signs of economic growth and Greek dignity, whereas the former features a photo of a husband and wife literally on the ledge of a building, contemplating suicide in the wake of cuts and uncertainty about raising a child in modern Greece.

We've gone from inventors of western civilization to guinea pigs for austerity and growth, with an 1100 year run of the Byzantine Empire and 400 years of Ottoman rule in between.  Who can match that roller coaster? 

Anyway, most of the recent news has been tied to this week's bailout that will allow Greece to avoid default.  That announcement on Tuesday, coupled with the earlier debt negotiations that resulted in private foreign banks agreeing to only collect 50 percent of what Greece actually owes, is supposed to signal the economic rock bottom, the end of the beginning.  Now, with Greece's financial situation and debt repayment schedule 'organized,' and with representatives of the troika given a permanent oversight role in Athens, growth and foreign investment is supposed to follow.

But it's hard not to be cynical about what comes next.  When this week's bailout was announced, the International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Christine LeGarde was quoted as saying the bailout and debt restructuring "should really give enough space for Greece to restore its competitiveness ... so .... it can get back on track.”

"Back on track" - when was Greece on track, economically?  Was she pointing to .... what?  I guess there was a golden age, right before Greece adopted the euro (or the era between joining the European Union in 1980 and the adoption of the euro currency). With the drachma Greece at least had some flexibility, western tourists flocked there to take advantage of the favorable exchange rate, and the world economy was still humming so Greek shipping was doing well.  Tourism and shipping, with some agriculture mixed in, is how Greek's earn real money.

So it's both cynical and ironic that one could argue for Greece to really get 'back on track' and 'restore competitiveness' they would have to go back to the drachma.  That would make Greek shipping, tourism and yogurt cheaper and more competitive.  Of course, doing that would in theory collapse the euro and eurozone, throwing Europe's economy - not just Greece's - into a momentary yet significant tailspin.

I hope Greece can pull it off; as all Greek patriots will point out, the nation and culture have faced greater challenges in the last 3,000 years.  But when we do, it probably won't be by getting 'back' on track.  Greece's saving grace is that it has very educated and very European-focused young people who will get involved in the recovery and can hopefully lead the motherland forward, not back.