ACC Basketball Preview

Hope everyone has had a great holiday season. I've enjoyed the break; we had a good time playing tourists in DC as we visited the Lincoln Memorial, the new Capitol Visitor Center, and the National Zoo in the last 10 days.

But I am really looking forward to two big January happenings: inauguration day; but more urgently the start of the ACC basketball season.

ACC basketball - unlike football, which went 4-6 in bowl games - has had a decent December. So far there have been impressive wins by Carolina and Maryland over Michigan State, Duke trounced Purdue and Xavier (the Musketeers have in turn defeated Virginia Tech and Virginia), Carolina and Miami have beaten Kentucky (Miami winning in Lexington), Carolina won the Maui Invitational, Florida State took down the Gators (and NC State had a great chance to defeat Florida in Gainesville yesterday but choked in the final minute), Virginia Tech and Miami have each beaten St. John's on the road (something Notre Dame could not do) and once again the ACC won their made for TV challenge versus the Big 10.

Those are the highlights. There are some shocking low lights, such as Virginia losing at HOME to Liberty (Jerry Falwell's school). And Georgia Tech losing at home to Penn State and Illinois-Chicago . . . and Virginia, and Florida State losing to Northwestern. In general, Georgia Tech and Virginia did not help the conference at all in December (especially when you consider the Yellow Jackets' blow out loss to LSU in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl in their home town).

So after looking at the ACC schedule, here are my predictions and descriptions for the upcoming men's basketball season.

Carolina 15-1
Clemson 11-5
Duke 11-5
Wake Forest 9-7
Miami 9-7
Virginia Tech 8-8
Boston College 7-9
NC State 7-9
Maryland 6-10
Florida State 6-10
Virginia 4-12
Georgia Tech 3-13

A few observations:

• As you can see, I'm going on a limb and predicting that Carolina will lose a game. As Bill Guthridge once said, "basketball is not an undefeated sport." I think the Heels will take both games versus Duke, giving Hansbrough, Green and company a four-year sweep of the Devils in Cameron. I see the Heels slipping up at either Miami or maybe NC State. The Heels will NOT lose at Wake; one, they are too talented and two, though at home Wake will be coming off an 8 day layoff and will be rusty and red-meat for the Heels.
• Wake will make the NCAA tournament but are probably the most overrated team in the ACC. Unique among the upper echelon teams in the ACC, Wake does not own a win over a top 25 team though they did defeat an unranked Baylor team and just traveled to Utah to defeat Brigham Young (the university, not the person). I think Wake will hold serve at home but will have trouble on the road in the ACC. With at least 9 wins and good talent this team will reassert the Deacons' place in the top half of the ACC, and mark the complete recovery from Chris Paul's early departure and Skip Prosser's untimely death.
• I'm still not that impressed with Duke. I think this team will win it's share of games, but once again they are too dependent on the three-point shot, and once again Krzyzewski has not developed a reliable bench. By the time Duke rolls into Chapel Hill to end the season they will be spent and done, and fodder for a West Virginia or Arizona State or Wisconsin in the second or third round of the NCAA tournament.
• It's hard to call them a dark horse, but Clemson is one of the most intriguing teams in the ACC. Oliver Purnell knows what he is doing, and this squad will improve on last season's record and likely make it to the sweet 16. The Tigers destroyed Miami, in Coral Gables, in December and could easily finish with 12 or 13 wins if they win at Boston College and/or Florida State.
• Those two teams - the Eagles and Seminoles - will have NIT-worthy seasons punctuated by an inability to win on the road. They have talent, but without the adrenaline and energy of a home crowd will struggle to get to 7 wins. A bit more talent or seasoning could get these guys to 9 wins but I don't see it happening.
  
• The U should be better but unlike Clemson I don't see them picking up any big road wins. The Canes will likely win at bottom feeders like Virginia and Georgia Tech but struggle everywhere else. They will be a bubble team all season long, and have to win at either Maryland, BC or NC State to get to 9 wins. But 9 wins in the conference is no guarantee to make the NCAA tournament. Miami only has one quality non-conference win, at Kentucky. Their season may be undone by the loss at home to Ohio State in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, the game in which All-ACC player Jack McClintock was ejected after slapping at a Buckeyes player, a bone-headed move that cost a game and perhaps a season.
• Virginia Tech is another talented bubble team. They'll get to 8 and 8 but like Miami lack a defining non-conference win, and are unlike Miami will probably end up in the NIT. Unlike the Hurricanes, who may stay home due to McClintock's mistake, the Hokies may miss the NCAA tournament due to Xavier hitting a half-court prayer at the buzzer. A win at Duke tonight would help VPI get to 9 wins and give them a signature victory.
• NC State will overachieve to get to 7 wins. With J.J. Hickson gone, Costner and McCauley should rebound and return to the form of two years ago. But State is still very weak at the point and will get to 7 wins primarily due to the fact they play Georgia Tech, Virginia and Boston College 5 times.
• Finally, it will be another rough season in College Park, with lots of howling for Gary Williams' head. This team will be very shaky on the road and limp to 6 wins and the NIT. I have no idea how they defeated Michigan State. Not to jump all over Gary, but it's fascinating to look at all the local talent he has NOT recruited to Maryland. The list is a who's who of young basketball talent: Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Michael Beasley, Ty Lawson, Marcus Ginyard, and that's just off the top of my head and from the last three years! All of those guys played high school ball or grew up in the DC-metro area but never made it up to College Park.
  
• So the ACC should get 5 bids to the NCAA tournament, an underwhelming number of participants. I've blogged this before, but the ACC has yet to benefit from the football-inspired expansion. The football season produced mediocrity, as evidenced by the bowl record of the conference, and the football schools have yet to enhance the hoops side of the ledger. And the unbalanced scheduled - necessitated by a 12-team league - has weakened the value of winning 8 or 9 games in the ACC. Eight wins in conference used to be a lock when the NCAA tournament committee knew a team had played Carolina and Duke four times a season. But those days are gone.

That's how I see the season playing out. Let me know what you think, and Go Heels!