Two is the magic number

In case anyone WAS wondering, it looks like it took me two months to get over Carolina's loss in the elite 8 this year. In a related development, Kendall Marshall has also yet to fully recover from his wrist injury. 

Obviously, that makes two of us.

But there too many good stories - and one bad one - to keep Carolina Hellenic Blue from getting back on track.

The first and best one has got to be our hometown Washington Nationals (I'll blog the others: Greece; NBA playoffs; EURO 2012; etc. starting tomorrow). They are playing so well, despite so many injuries and bad luck, that my hopes and expectations are Carolina high.  All season long, I've found myself pacing and getting as nervous during Nats games, especially late, as I do during a Carolina game.  

How is that for perspective?  

It's hard to believe that the Nats are in first place without Drew Storen or Michael Morse having played a single inning, then losing Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, and Brad Lidge for most of the season so far.

But that's how good our starting pitching has been.  Our starters and Adam LaRoche did all the heavy lifting - with some help from Jim Tracy pinching hitting like Ted Williams - for the first month of the season and got the Nats off to phenomenal and exciting start.  Steven Strasburg in particular was lights out his first 6 starts.

In the last month however, the worm has turned as the starters - except for Gio 'Best Pitcher in the NL' Gonzalez - have returned to Earth. But now the offense is starting to produce and carry the squad.

Some of that productivity is due to the return of Ryan Zimmerman from the DL, moving Ian Desmond out of the leadoff spot and into more RBI-worthy situations found in the 5th or 6th hole, and Danny Espinosa finally staring to hit.  

But it's been two rookies who were not expected to help the Nationals this year, or at all, who are most responsible for the recent offensive surge of the Nationals.  

One, as we all know, is Bryce Harper.  He may be in over his head some times as he adjusts to life in the big leagues but Harper is a six-tool player, perhaps the first in baseball.  He hits, hits for power, runs well (an understatement), fields well, and throws exceptionally.  His sixth tool?  

Harper does something exciting every night; you can't take your eyes off of him.

One night, it's stealing home, another turning a single and a bobble into a double.  Or maybe it's scoring from second on a ground ball that ricochets off the second baseman's glove, or crashing into the wall in center.   Or running the bases in 17 seconds on a home run, Mickey Mantle style.

For me, the epitome of Harper - at least so far - was Sunday against old favorite(s) Livo Hernandez and the Braves.  The first time Livo faced him, he struck Harper out on a 64-mile an hour curve ball.  One inning later, Livo tried that again on an 0-2 pitch.  That time, Harper lined a home run the opposite way that got out of the yard in about 3 seconds and barely rose higher than 15 feet.  

To paraphrase W: 'Fool me once, shame on me.  Try to fool me twice, shame on you.'

But the other rookie that has helped the Nats stay in first place is Steve Lombardozzi.  Inserted into the lead off spot by Davey 'Yes, I still have it at 69 years young' Johnson, Lombardozzi is hitting 320 with an on-base percentage close to 400.  He's mainly started in LF, but also got some time at third when Zimm was hurt and at second spelling Espinosa.  I hope Johnson keeps finding him at bats when Morse (would could come off the DL next week) and Werth return.   Lombardozzi gets on base like a lead off hitter should.

Finding him ABs after Morse returns is a GREAT problem to have.  As I said at the top o' the blog, it's hard not to get excited about watching this team compete.  That's one of the greatest things about baseball - you get to follow your team every day for six month.  And if your team is good, that's hard two beat.

GO NATS!

A few more Nats notes, then it's off to the Mall for some CLAW softball.

• The return of Morse could give the Nats a stacked line up, and would keep Lombardozzi in the line up at least until Werth returns. I assume Johnson will go: Lombardozzi LF; Harper CF; Zimmerman 3B; LaRoche 1B; Morse LF; Desmond SS; Espinosa 2B; Flores C.
• Jesus Flores will turn out to be the unsung hero for the Nats, our savior in the wake of Ramos' injury.
• One last encouraging thing about the Nationals' season thus far? Not only have they flourished without Morse, etc. but they are off to a 6-4 start as the Nats enter the most brutal part of their schedule.  Those six wins have come against the first-place Orioles and on the road at Philadelphia and Atlanta.  It's a tough month of games, as the Nats are in Miami, home versus the Mets and Braves, then travel to Boston and Toronto, come home for the Yankees and Rays, then finish that stretch in Baltimore.  
• That's 33 games versus nothing but quality and pennant-worthy foes from the NL and AL East.  If the Nats are in first place by the time the Rockies come to DC on June 25th tell Mike Rizzo to start printing playoff tickets!

Wrists and shoes - and of course Harrison Barnes.

First the wrists were broken, then the other - and other - shoe dropped as Kendall Marshall, Harrison Barnes, and John Henson announced their intentions to enter the 2012 NBA draft today.

I could have pivoted from wrists broken to hearts broken, but that's a little overly dramatic for Dean Smith's basketball program. Also, for most if not ALL Carolina fans, our hearts were broken Sunday - twice. Once when it was announced that Marshall would not play against Kansas, and the second time in the excruciating final four minutes against the Jayhawks that saw Carolina outscored 0-12.

Today was merely a formality, at least for Barnes and Henson. Everyone knew that this season was likely to be their last in Chapel Hill. Hopes were raised slightly by the small possibility that that trio would return in order to make a run at the 2013 national championship, but that was frankly a smaller-than-small possibility.

Injuries often are THE deciding factor for players facing these kinds of decisions, so even though Marshall's was a bit a of a surprise his draft stock is sky high, and honestly how could he play any better than he did down the stretch this year?  The combination of an injury and the talent level (ceiling?) he reached apparently clinched it for the Dumfries, Virginia sophomore. Marshall has been compared to Jason Kidd, though he's slower than Kidd was when he was also entering the NBA as a sophomore, and with the right team he should become a star.

Henson leaves after 2 years of scintillating play on both ends of the floor.  Interesting to note that he came to Carolina hoping to develop into a 3 for the NBA, only to comfortably reassert himself as a traditional - and game changing - power forward who can block shots on one end, score with either hand on the other. Like Marshall, his draft stock is likely at it's peak. If his body can withstand 82 games in a man's league, Henson should thrive in the league on his defense alone. But his quickness and ability to hit the mid-range jumper should also help him succeed.

As it has been since he stepped on campus in the fall of 2010, it's harder to assess Harrison Barnes. When he was great, he was unbelievable. But he wasn't always great, and for a smart and sophisticated guy his concentration and effectiveness maddeningly waxed and waned this season.

And unfortunately, when his team needed him the most in the wake of Marshall's injury, Barnes responded by missing 22 of his last 30 shots in the regional semi-final and final.  

Barnes was coming off a great second half of this freshman year, a half season that saw him explode once Marshall was installed as the starting point guard. Carolina fans expected Barnes to continue that progression this season. Instead, Barnes leveled off into an effective but not always dynamic offensive player whose rebounding improved.  

Finally, he never became the superstar we expected - or needed against Ohio and especially Kansas. Rather than evolving into the next Tyler Hansbrough, an unstoppable combination of skill and will that led Carolina to another national championship, Barnes ended his season - and career in Chapel Hill - as the third-best player on his own team.

We expected those NBA shoes to drop, but did not expect Barnes to settle for that ranking on this year's Tar Heels squad.

End of the Year Effort

It’s an effort to figure out where to start the last blog of the Carolina basketball season, a season that began with the Heels the pre-season favorite to win our third national championship in 8 seasons.

In that context, losing in a regional final looks like a failed season.  But you can’t say that about this year’s Heels.

For most of the year, THE question around this squad was ‘Will the Heels pull it all together after the injuries - first to Strickland then Henson - and the terrible road loss in Tallahassee in time to win the championship?’

The answer to that question was answered in the second half against Creighton – heel yes. 

Carolina looked that good in the second (third) round game in Greensboro, just the way they looked in humiliating the devils in Durham to close out the regular season with a 14-2 record.

Of course the entire sports world knows what happened next. All-everything Kendall Marshall, whose offensive blossoming down the stretch was THE Carolina story even more than Tyler Zeller becoming the ACC Player of the Year, went down with a broken wrist.  And any realistic chance at national championship broke down with it.

However, the reason the 2012 campaign was not a failure is the way the Heels responded to Marshall’s injury.

The fought, they competed, and they expended maximum effort. We measure sports contests with wins and losses, but sport is really about one thing and one thing only – effort. 

Against Ohio (sure, it was only Ohio, but they played well!) the Heels could have easily hung their collective heads, especially Harrison Barnes, when they went down by 4 with 4 minutes to go; ‘oh well, what can we do?  We don’t have Kendall Marshall?’

But the Heels did the opposite. John Henson hustled back to block an Ohio fast break basketball, Barnes refocused and calmly hit two big shots in overtime, and Reggie Bullock manned up and repeatedly hit big threes down the stretch and to start overtime to carry Carolina.

They did not feel sorry for themselves; they competed.

For 36 minutes against Kansas, it was a tie game. The Heels, playing their third- and fourth-string point guards, were toe-to-toe in a regional final. 

White withstood the pressure from Kansas’ guards. James Michael McAdoo made play after play, and the Heels were a great shooting team for the first 24 minutes, getting points from all over the floor behind Barnes and Henson and Zeller.

Unfortunately, coming out of the under-four time out, the Heels were spent. Points were left on the rim – two nice drives by Barnes ended with missed shots including a Zeller tip-in that did not go in – and Kansas over played Zeller and Henson, forced White and Bullock to take and miss shots.  And just like that, the great and promising season ended.

It would have been great to see Barnes score on those drives, to see the freshman White direct Carolina into the final four.  Unfortunately, the reward was not the one Heels fans wanted but we DID get to see the Heels compete.

Injuries are the wild card in sports.  Stay healthy and expend the effort, and you will be rewarded.  The effort was there, and for that we can be proud.

GO HEELS!

A few more notes:

• The last four minutes of that game reminded me a little of the 2007 regional final against Georgetown, where the Heels simply could not make a shot down the stretch. In that game, we took some bad shots. Yesterday, the Heels were spent and going against a tough and smart Kansas defense.
• Sad to see Bullock end the season with a bad game shooting 3s. He had been so hot coming in, I really expected him to help carry Carolina one more game. But he was fantastic as our starting shooting guard this year.
• Enough cannot be said about Stilman White handling the first two starts of his career with such aplomb. Has any freshman had to do that, have their first two starts come in the sweet 16 and elite 8?  Or forget starts, just talk about getting significant playing time for the first time in the NCAA tournament.
• McAdoo was electric yesterday versus Kansas, much like he was in the second half of the season. He was the second-biggest story of the second half of the season. Mark my words: McAdoo will become Rasheed Wallace next year.
• The worst part of any ‘end of the season Carolina blog’ – even when the Heels win a national championship – is the speculation about who will come back.  Of late, Barnes, Henson AND Marshal – probably McAdoo, too - have been projected as early- to mid-first round picks in the NBA draft (as has Zeller, for that matter).
• I guess there’s a scenario where 2 of the three come back – either Henson or Barnes, along with Marshall – but I would not get my hopes up.  Then again, this is a pretty deep draft (six Kentucky players alone will go pro, along with Austin Rivers, Jared Sullinger, etc.), so maybe Marshall comes back for another season to work himself into a lottery pick rather than the 15^th or 16^th pick in 2012.
• Or maybe Barnes wants to keep increasing his brand one more season, or comeback to do something truly worthy of getting your jersey in the rafters?  http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/moneyballer/8911/
• Either way, next year’s team will be a fun one, with McAdoo, a freshman at 4, Bullock (taking Barnes’ spot), Strickland (at one?), P.J. Hairston (starting over McDonald at 2), Leslie McDonald, even Desmond Hubert battling Maryland, NC State, Syracuse and I guess Duke next year. FSU, Virginia, and Pitt will be a little down next year after losing key seniors, with Clemson, Miami, Wake, Georgia Tech, BC and I guess Virginia Tech still another year away.
• One of if not THE saddest parts of ending this season is saying goodbye to classy and successful Tar Heel seniors Tyler Zeller and Justin Watts. It would have been fantastic to have them leave with book ended national championships. But they leave with a great legacy nonetheless. I think Zeller will be a very successful pro. You put him on a team like Phoenix or Oklahoma City, teams that like to run and he could really thrive.

Survive and Advance

If last night's overtime win over Ohio is not the definition survive and advance, I don't know what is.

Kendall Marshall's injury was the biggest thing to overcome.  Marshall did not dress for the game, and is unlikely to play on Sunday, too.  Last night the Heels also had to survive:

• Harrison Barnes having the worst basketball game a Tar Heels player can EVER have; he missed tons of shots, turned the ball over half a dozen times, and repeatedly made bad decisions
• The team had 13 turnovers at half, more than the total number of turnovers in the previous 4 games, and finished with 24 for the game. Carolina won a game in which it turned it over 24 times!
• Every Carolina fan's worst nightmare, a team that can bomb away from 3.  In the words of Jay Bilas, the Bobcats were 'good, I mean really, really good.' They made shots, at least everyone except Cooper did.
• Overcome is too strong of a word to describe 'freshman Stillman White's first ever start' but that certainly was a challenge. I think this angle has been underplayed: how many freshman point guards - arguably the toughest position in hoopdom - get their FIRST ever start in a sweet 16 game?  Has that ever happened before?

But the Heels did overcome all those challenges, and gutted out a tough and important win. This game was so tough and difficult that it frankly felt like a loss - and I'm just talking about the fans. I can't imagine how exhausted and relieved the students and coaches must have been when the game finally ended.

Like I said, it felt like and certainly was a case of survive and advance. Barely.

How did Carolina manage that?

Reggie Bullock and Tyler Zeller, with some clutch shots from John Henson, White and even Barnes.

Bullock was the reason Carolina won that game. Period.  In a game where Zeller was virtually unchallenged and finished with a visionary 20-20 double-double, Bullock hit the biggest shots and made the biggest plays. His 3s in the second half were all killers, and each of the 4 he made came with the score tied or the lead at one, and he picked up some key boards. For the game the Kinston native was 5 for 10 from three, had 10 boards for another double-double, and had 5 assists, too. 

Another great sign from Bullock: in 3 NCAA games he is 10 for 21 from deep.  He's playing fantastic basketball.

Fantastic basketball certainly describes Tyler Zeller's night. Carolina was much taller than Ohio so it figured that our front line would excel.  Zeller dominated the first half in particular and was big late, too.  In addition to the 20 points and 23 boards, Zeller had 4 blocks included two athletic ones where he also kept the ball in bounds. It's funny to think that the ACC Player of the Year is somehow underrated, but he is.  Ol' Roy should have drawn up that last play in regulation for Psycho Z, too. 

Of course that last play went to Barnes, who lost the ball going up.  Hard to figure out Barnes, isn't it, despite having played seventy-plus games in Chapel Hill?  Last night he was simply terrible for 43 of the 45 minutes. 

Of course, in those two minutes he may have saved the game and season.  His four-point play that tied the game at 57 with less than 3 minutes to play - yes, the Heels trailed Ohio by 4 late - has huger than huge.  And his one-minute take over of overtime in effect ended the game. But how does one explain his waxing and waning concentration?  Or is that it?  I don't know.

Early in the game he was aggressively taking the ball to the rack.  But once again Barnes had trouble finishing, and so the rest of the game he wandered the perimeter missing shots.  When he wasn't doing that, he was losing the ball off the dribble - his ball handling skills have not improved much - or making lazy passes.  

But for a few game-winning plays, the concentration was there and Barnes made big plays.  To me, concentration equals finishing so I think it must be that, or it could have simply been Marshal being out. After all, Barnes' play vexed many a Tar Heels fan when Drew II was running the point.

But I don't want to even hint that White's play was like Drew's.  White played 32 minutes, made 6 assists against no turnovers in his first ever start.  And as I mentioned before, his first start was not against Elon or Mississippi Valley State it was in the 'frigging' - or is it 'flippin' - sweet 16.  

Defensively, Roy kept White - not Bullock - on Cooper, Ohio's best player for most of the game, and it worked. It was probably a combination of good D and boneheadedness that contributed to Cooper's Barnes-esque 3 for 20 night, but give White credit.  He kept Cooper in front of him, pushed him out past the 3 point line, and effectively kept him off balance all night.

The one downside to White's night was his passes inside to Zeller and Henson. Too often, especially in the second half, White tried bounce passes instead of going over to the top to Carolina's bigs.  So though he finished with 0 turnovers, I imagine a few of Zeller's and Henson's were a result of catching some sloppy passes from White and Justin Watts.  Some of that is Ohio's fault; they did a great job of making up for being shorter by clogging and overplaying the passing lanes.  Against Kansas on Sunday, White needs to to a better job feeding the post.

So led by Bullock and Zeller, the Heels survived and advanced. This game said volumes about those two, but let's also give it up for Carolina's toughness. It would have been easy to get down and feel sorry for yourself in a game like this, even though it's an opponent from the Mid-American Conference.  But the Heels did not fold when the game looked bad.  When we were down four I had my doubts and fears.

Luckily, Carolina stayed Carolina, the Heels ran a great play out of the boxed set to get Bullock that open 3 that he calmly drained to start the overtime, and the Tar Heels made enough smart and tough plays to win that game - and of course survive and advance.

GO HEELS!

A few hoops notes:

• Tough loss for the Wolfpack last night; they did not get down or back down late either and had two excellent chances to win or at least tie that game. But a great bounce back season for NCSU, who finally seems to have found the right coach in Mark Gottfried.  He seems to be a great combination of Lowe's charisma, Sendek's basketball know-how, and Sloan's competitiveness (and if he's Jewish, even some of Valvano's ethnicity!).
• Anyway, I relish the return of the Carolina-State rivalry that I grew up with.  
• That rivalry may return to center stage next season if as rumored Duke's Austin Rivers opts to leave early for the NBA. Duke only has one recruit next year coming in and may not be as good with a Curry-Plumlees-Kelly-Thornton-Dawkins line up.
• I thought all the teams that won last night looked pretty good, especially Kentucky and Ohio State. This weekend's Elite 8 games all look like good ones, except Louisville versus Florida (I have the Gators winning that one).  There are few things worse than watching Pitino coach (watching Calipari is one), but I'd add watching a Pitino protege match 'wits' with his mentor.
• I'm going with a Kentucky - though Baylor looked impressive, too - Florida, Ohio State and Carolina final four.

All in the wrist

It's a terrible cliche, one that does not fully capture the frustration and anxiety Heels fans, to say nothing of Roy Williams or Kendall Marshall, feel as a result of tonight's injury to Carolina's all-everything point guard.

Of course, the weekend starting with anxiety about John Henson's wrist.  The Heels' play today, where Carolina shot it extremely well and defended pretty well, too, in a satisfying beat down of a pretty good Creighton team, put that anxiety to rest.  The Heels looked good-to-great today.

But what are the odds of two wrist injuries - in the space of two weeks - threatening to derail a season?  Odder still to think about other wrist injuries Carolina has suffered. Tyler Zeller hurt his in 2009, but as a bench player it was not that big a loss. The most infamous wrist injury, for now, is Kenny Smith's from 1984 that was one reason Michael Jordan's last team in Chapel Hill did not win another championship.*

Hopefully, the injury to Marshall's non-shooting wrist is not as bad as feared.  Carolina can probably get away with a Justin Watts-Stillman White point guard combo against Ohio on Friday night. The Bobcats play a half court game and like to slow things down. All bets are off, however, against a team like Kansas, Purdue or even NC State. 

But until we find out more info, Tar Nation will have to hold it's breath.

A few Creighton game notes:

I will say a few things about today's game.  It was great to see Carolina shoot the ball well and get off to a great start. The Heels rebounded well, and got to run early in building a working lead. Of course, the key to that first-half run was Marshall, who routinely got to the rim. The Heels were so good they won even though Tyler Zeller was not dominant.

Carolina finished at 50 percent shooting for the game, and hit 8 of 16 threes, too.

The Heels got a little sloppy late, near the middle of the second half, but at that point the Harrison Barnes-bot became focused and engaged. Barnes hit back-to-back three point shots to put the game away, along with help - and sharp passing - from Marshall, Henson and Zeller. Barnes finished with 17 points.

Along with Marshall, the star of the game for me was Reggie Bullock, who did a bit of everything; 13 points, 3 three pointers, 8 boards, 2 assists.  He also keyed a pretty good defensive effort by the Heels, and helped hold Creighton to 42 percent shooting.

And don't forget Henson, who came back after missing almost 4 games to block 4 shots to go along with a 13 point, 10 boards double-double.  He even endured two borderline dirty plays - slaps to his wrist, one of which looked deliberate - and some very hard fouls.

Finally, James Michael McAdoo had another strong game, playing 24 minutes and making another of his new series of freak nasty dunks.  He was Henson-esque with 3 blocks to go along with his 9 points and 4 boards.

So plenty of good things, all undone by one potentially terrible flick of our most indispensable player's wrist.

* 3 best Carolina teams to not win a national championship?  To me, it's: 1986 Smith-Brad Daugherty team, 1997-98 Jamison-Carter teams, and probably the 1984 Jordan-Smith squad.  Discuss?

Quick picks for 2012 NCAA tournament

As you have no doubt read by now, my first draft bracket is like a Charles Bronson movie. Carolina gets revenge for: the 2008 Final Four and beats Kansas in the regional final; losing to FSU twice this year by beating the Noles in the national semi-final; losing to Kentucky last year and in December by winning the 2012 National Championship.  


In terms of the brackets, the Midwest and East look pretty tame. In the Midwest, I guess Belmont takes down Georgetown so NC State goes to the sweet 16 but that's it in terms of upsets.  

In the East, I have Vandy beating Syracuse (44 to 41 or something exciting like that, though I want to pick UNC-Asheville in an historic upset over the Orange), and FSU toughing it out against a slumping Ohio State on their way to their first Final Four since 1972 (where coincidentally enough, they beat Robert McAdoo and the Tar Heels).

I have a few upsets in the South - UNLV over Duke - but that's about it as Kentucky coasts in an easy region.

The West, however, is the crazy bracket. I have Memphis over Michigan State, Long Beach State (and their Kramer inspired 'The Beach' unis) and Murray State BOTH making the sweet 16 before Missouri beats Memphis to win the regional.

Then Carolina finally beats FSU, and Kentucky blows out Missouri in the national semi-finals. A gassed Kentucky runs out of steam late in the second half, Marshall feeds Zeller, and Barnes drives at will as the Heels win 81-71 in their favorite Final Four destination, New Orleans.

Or something like that.

Oh yeah, GO HEELS!

Oh well

What a big day, one that makes it hard for a Carolina fan to focus. The good news is Carolina was rewarded for a 14-2 ACC regular season with a number one seed in the Midwest regional.  More on my brackets later in the show.

Yet, it is hard not to lament the game - and ACC Tournament Championship - that got away this afternoon in Atlanta.  The 3-point loss to Florida State was an entertaining game, and a reminder that even in a down year, the ACC still produces the nation's best basketball.

The hardest part of looking back at today's game is typing this next line: Carolina had the ball, down by one with 11 seconds left, and lost.

That simply is not supposed to happen.

What is? The Heels make a few passes, get the defense out of position, and hit a short shot - and usually get fouled - to win the game.

But not today. And not this year, so far.  The same scenario unfolded in Lexington in December's loss to Kentucky.

Today, all-everything (but second team All-ACC) Kendall Marshall missed a wide open three pointer with 7 seconds left against FSU to seal the first ever ACC championship for the Seminoles.  

In hindsight, Marshall should have driven into the lane for either a lay up, a foul on FSU, or to pass to Zeller or Barnes.  Instead, he shot a hair early, and missed.  

But it's hard to fault Marshall. Though he did not have a great game, with some odd turnovers to start the second half, he had just hit a big 3 twenty seconds earlier to bring the Heels within one - and was wide open.  

Still, we've come to expect that Marshall never makes a mistake. The shot was not a mistake, but taking it when he did, 3 or 4 seconds too early, probably was.

Oh well.

The only thing that makes the loss semi palatable - besides the knowledge that the NCAA tournament awaits, and the last 2 Carolina national champs also failed to win the ACC tournament when coincidentally injuries to McCants and Lawson also played a role in 'ol Roy's coaching decisions - is that:

1. The Heels played hard, and rallied from a 16-point deficit
2. Carolina almost pulled it out despite playing without John Henson (and Dexter Strickland)
3. FSU played really well, and made tough shots, especially by Luke Loucks and Michael Snaer (he was impressive; his 3 at the 8 minute mark was huge and stemmed a Carolina run), and Bernard James came up with 2 huge blocks late.  The Seminoles made plays when they had to.
4. P.J. Hairston looked great, hitting 3 three-pointers and turning the game around for the Heels in the second half
5. Harrison Barnes joined Hairston on that run, and looked assertive and focused all day which should carry over nicely into the NCAA tournament

This loss could provide a great springboard, not just because it was a loss but Carolina had to fight.  That same kind of fight will be needed in the next 3 weeks and ideally 6 games for the Heels, games that will hopefully feature John Henson.

With our regular rotation, plus a rejuvenated bench and a more rested Kendall Marshall (5 days off!), I love this team's chances.  

GO HEELS!

 

First draft of my NCAA picks

As I mentioned above, the NCAA tournament should provide some measure of payback for the Heels, three weeks to straighten out Carolina's karmic balance sheet.  

The basketball gods owe us.  Well,maybe not the gods, since my first draft bracket looks more like a Charles Bronson movie: 

• Carolina gets revenge for the 2008 Final Four and beats Kansas in the Midwest regional final;
• Then we get revenge for losing to FSU twice (Dean always said it was hard to beat a team 3 times in a season) by finally taking down the Noles in the national semi-final in Nawlins; 
• And finally, the Heels get revenge for losing to Kentucky in last year's regional final, and in December, in the national championship game. 

Simple, right?  GO HEELS!

Turning ugly into victory

Ugly seems to be the theme of many a Carolina win this season, none more so than today's victory over State in the ACC tournament semi-finals.

Ugly - let me count the ways:

• No John Henson
• Tyler Zeller fouls out
• Harrison Barnes went 3 for 12
• James Michael McAdoo and Kendall Marshall were also in foul trouble
• Carolina had to utilize their fourth-string point guard - in the first half!

Yet, save for Henson all those players stepped up to help will the Heels to a tough win over a determined Wolfpack.

Zeller was generally unstoppable on his was to 23 points on 8 for 11 shooting.  The strategy of 'give it to Zeller and have him score or foul out the other team' helped win this game today.

Barnes left a dozen points on the rim, but his aggressiveness midway through the second half changed the game in Carolina's favor.  He seemed to recognize that his shot wasn't falling so it was time to take it to the rack, which usually resulted in free throws and points.  Barnes' one-man run was huge.

McAdoo struggled at times in his first career start, but did finish with 9 points.

But this game belonged to Marshall and Watts.  When my brother asked me 'How did Carolina win this game" I muttered "Uh, Marshall and Watts made plays" but struggled to come up with any other info on the game.

Marshall had an uneven game, but came up big at the end with his game-winning drive.  And for the record, that was not a charge.  The State defender had to lean into Marshall to even get close to charge position.  And philosophically, on that kind of play the benefit of the doubt goes to the offense.  More on this point later.

It wasn't just that last drive; Marshall made play after play in the second half, and his offensive game is now legit - and dangerous for the other team.

But what can you say about Justin Watts?  He played point guard when Marshall got into foul trouble, spelled McAdoo at power forward when he picked up his fourth foul, then made THE play of the game with his steal - under the State basket - with less than 5 seconds left.  Watts played 18 crucial minutes, and saved the game, turning ugly into victory along the way.

GO HEELS

•  I would have been happy with either FSU or Duke as Carolina's opponent tomorrow.  The chance to smite Duke again would have been great, but I think most Tar Heels fan like the idea of avenging the loss in Tallahassee.
• It should be quite a slug fest between two big front lines, especially if the Heels are again without Henson. 
• Neither FSU nor Duke looked that smooth on offense, so if Carolina can shut down Snaer and James, with Bullock and Zeller, we should be okay.  Of course, that assumes we also shut down Dulkys so Marshall, Watts and Barnes also need to step up on D.
• I like our chances though. Revenge is a powerful motivator.  Look for a focused Barnes to lead the Heels to another ACC championship, 77 to 65.

Finally, some more thoughts on charges and blocking fouls.

The referees really stunk in this game, at both ends for both teams.  

In general, college basketball refs have not had a good season, and it seems that down the stretch of this ACC season they have gone charge crazy.  

I've blogged/ranted on this point before, but to me at least most of these charges should be called blocking fouls.  

One, the team with the ball should get the benefit of the doubt.  They are instigating the action, and should NOT be penalized for that. As it is in baseball, where a tie goes to the runner, in basketball a close play should be called a blocking foul, not a charge.

Two, too often charging calls reward lazy defense. Things have improved with the NCAA adopting the NBA semi-circle under the basket so that players literally can't just wait for the offense to come to them. For years, Duke would just plant a player under the hoop and wait for drivers to run into them and draw a cheap charging foul.

But that style of  'waiting for an offensive player to run into me' defense is still utilized by teams outside that semi-circle - and referees reward them for it.  It makes no sense.  

If a defensive player is NOT set once the player with the ball leaves his or her feet, that's a blocking foul. It's unfair to the offensive player to be called for charging for running into a defender who slides over to where that player is going to land.  The offensive player is penalized for abiding by the laws of gravity.  

Again, the offense should be given the benefit of the doubt, and the defensive team should actually guard someone by moving their feet and not be rewarded for acting like a statue.

Stay away from the epsom salts!

It what could be a foreshadowing of NCAA tournament's past, Carolina is dealing with another injury during the ACC tournament.

John Henson's wrist injury may not be as serious as Ty Lawson's toe was in 2009, but of course Heels fans would take the result.  Lawson's dad famously prescribed Epsom salts for the ankle, a remedy that did not work (and could have cost Carolina the National Championship!).*

What's interesting about last night's win over Maryland was how mature the Heels looked without Henson, the defensive player of the year and a first team all-ACC standout. 

The Heels methodically ground down the Terps in a workman like way, distributing the offense and sharing the load defensively. Harrison Barnes was great taking it to rack, and Reggie Bullock had another Bullock game - doing everything and doing it well.

Tyler Zeller was steady if unspectacular as he dealt with lots of defensive attention down low, and James Michael McAdoo continued his upward trajectory with excellent all-around play punctuated with another dunk, this one of his own making as he drove baseline for a freak-nasty finish in the second half.

But as it has been of late, K Butter was once again the story.  He got the Heels going early with the pass, and helped finish Maryland late with his offense.  I was going to blog 'steadily improving offense' but the time for that participle has passed.  Kendall Marshall possesses a legit and effective offensive game.  He is no longer Derrick Phelps or King Rice.  This guy is becoming more like Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson, a threat to score at anytime.

As good as Marshall has been, the story today will continue to be Henson's wrist. The Heels may not need him today but they would tomorrow - and obviously over the course of the next month.  As long as he heels like Lawson did - and as long as Marshall plays like Lawson, too - the Heels will be all right.   

Just stay away from the Epsom salts.

* not really; got a little over heated.  GO HEELS!

Well, I was close - but the game wasn't

Where to begin in talking about last night's 18-point beat down of the right-wing boobs/devils from Durham?  

So many things to talk about, from Tyler Zeller's double double and dominance, to the important bench play of James Michael McAdoo, PJ Hairston and Justin Watts (great D when Bullock got into foul trouble), to Harrison Barnes' confident shooting and dagger late, to John Henson's second-half play on offense and a key stop late on D, to Reggie Bullock doing a little bit of everything, and finally to Kendall Marshall being Kendall Marshall+ controlling a game's tempo and hitting big shots. 

But I'll start here, with my pre-blog.  

We knew Carolina had to do three things to win last night - go to Zeller, rebound and go over screens on defense.  To say they succeeded on all of those endeavors is to state the obvious and make an understatement.

Led by 'In Z We Trust," the Heels dominated the boards. And it was pure dominance, as Carolina was quicker to the ball all night. It was not Duke choosing to concede the glass and send 4 guys back on D to stop Carolina's transition, it was a desire to win that part of the battle - and the Heels did.  

And as any Tar Heel born, Tar Heel bred, waiting to be Tar Heel dead fan knows, rebounding leads to transition baskets. Carolina's board work and transition game is what lead to that awe-inspiring 24-point halftime lead.

The other key was our defense on the three-pointer. As it has been in North Carolina's 5 other recent wins in Cameron, the Heels went over ball screens and forced Duke to step inside the three-point line all night. Reggie Bullock in particular was fantastic - again an understatement - on defense. He is so smart, and big, and good, I can't stop gushing about this guy.

How much gushing?  I told my brother after the game that Bullock's play reminds me of George Lynch. 

That's right, I went there - George Lynch.  Yes, Bullock has been THAT good.

But the key to beating the devils is to take away the three, and with this team to stop Austin Rivers, and led by Bullock the Heels did that for a full 40 minutes last night.  

To recap, the pre-game blog stressed: Zeller, rebounding and going over screens - and I predicted a final score of Carolina 86, devils 73.  Close enough, and happily not a close score as the Heels blew out the devils in Cameron, again, for another ACC regular season championship. 

• I've blogged it before, I'll blog it again: there is nothing like beating Duke in Cameron. For me, the worst thing about Duke is not Krzyzewski or their players (usually not their players, since this IS the alma mater of Christian Laetnner, J.J. Reddick, etc.) or anything basketball related; after all, you have to respect a team that plays hard, wins, graduates their players, etc. But the Duke student body - right now training the next Rand Paul or Richard Nixon! - is another matter. It's simply great to puncture their sense of boorish and arrogant entitlement for one night.
• I was surprised to read Tarheelblue.com's Adam Lucas' column this morning that kind of wondered if Carolina had the stomach to come back from last month's tragic loss to Duke in the Dean Dome. Did anyone really question that? I didn't. Isn't Roy Williams our coach? Isn't he a protege of Dean Smith?  Enough said. Plus, isn't Kendall Marshall our point guard, Tyler Zeller our anchor? Coming back - and keeping losses in perspective - is as Carolina blue as rebounding, transition baskets, and pointing at the passer.
• If I ever suffer a serious medical condition - a heart attack, get into a car accident, etc. - please DO NOT call 911, please call Kendall Marshall instead. That guy is phenomenal. He was a maestro last night, and his offensive game continues to get more confident and more important. There is nothing that Marshall can not do.
• Another key was James Michael McAdoo. Early in the season I blogged on his importance as our only real big off the bench. With Z in some foul trouble last night McAdoo was huge, and his two Johnny on the spot plays, the Blake Griffin-esque dunk and the tip in late -were huger than huge.
• Finally, if I'm a Duke senior the last name I want to see on Carolina's roster is Tyler or Ty.  It's official name is Cameron Indoor Stadium, but our pals Hansbrough, Lawson and Zeller have unofficially dubbed that place Ty(ler)'s House.

Anyway, what a great win.  

GO HEELS! 

In Z I trust

I'm feeling good about tonight's tilt versus the devils.

Why?

Mainly Tyler Zeller.  Not only has he been playing great lately, but I think there has GOT to be some karmic pay back for the game in Chapel Hill.

Of course, the Heels need to go over screens tonight to guard the devils' three pointers,  Marshall needs to be Marshall - but how can he not be? - and we need to rebound.

I also feel that Barnes, who simply seems to be less engaged against lesser teams, will be super focused tonight.

So put it down - Heels 86, Duke 73.  Or something like that.  GO HEELS!

Back? On Track for Greece

On one of my earlier blogs about the Greek crisis, I semi-cynically observed that though it's bad news at least Greece is back IN the news.  Over the course of the last 3,000 years or so, Greece was usually at the center of the universe, making news, setting the agenda, etc.  In modern times, however, Greece has not been as relevant or newsworthy.  Of course, that changed with the crisis. 

But I lament even saying that with tongue in cheek. Being in the news for a devastating financial crisis is certainly not a silver lining to no longer being an afterthought.  

Every Sunday lately, and yesterday was no different, there have been long stories about what Greek society looks like now in the wake of drastic government cuts, EU imposed austerity, and a stagnant and shrinking economy.

Sunday's New York Times article on Greece - saying the motherland is basically a failed state - was much more depressing that last week's New York Times Sunday Magazine story on 'How Greeks Live Now.'  The latter article at least included some hopeful signs of economic growth and Greek dignity, whereas the former features a photo of a husband and wife literally on the ledge of a building, contemplating suicide in the wake of cuts and uncertainty about raising a child in modern Greece.

We've gone from inventors of western civilization to guinea pigs for austerity and growth, with an 1100 year run of the Byzantine Empire and 400 years of Ottoman rule in between.  Who can match that roller coaster? 

Anyway, most of the recent news has been tied to this week's bailout that will allow Greece to avoid default.  That announcement on Tuesday, coupled with the earlier debt negotiations that resulted in private foreign banks agreeing to only collect 50 percent of what Greece actually owes, is supposed to signal the economic rock bottom, the end of the beginning.  Now, with Greece's financial situation and debt repayment schedule 'organized,' and with representatives of the troika given a permanent oversight role in Athens, growth and foreign investment is supposed to follow.

But it's hard not to be cynical about what comes next.  When this week's bailout was announced, the International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Christine LeGarde was quoted as saying the bailout and debt restructuring "should really give enough space for Greece to restore its competitiveness ... so .... it can get back on track.”

"Back on track" - when was Greece on track, economically?  Was she pointing to .... what?  I guess there was a golden age, right before Greece adopted the euro (or the era between joining the European Union in 1980 and the adoption of the euro currency). With the drachma Greece at least had some flexibility, western tourists flocked there to take advantage of the favorable exchange rate, and the world economy was still humming so Greek shipping was doing well.  Tourism and shipping, with some agriculture mixed in, is how Greek's earn real money.

So it's both cynical and ironic that one could argue for Greece to really get 'back on track' and 'restore competitiveness' they would have to go back to the drachma.  That would make Greek shipping, tourism and yogurt cheaper and more competitive.  Of course, doing that would in theory collapse the euro and eurozone, throwing Europe's economy - not just Greece's - into a momentary yet significant tailspin.

I hope Greece can pull it off; as all Greek patriots will point out, the nation and culture have faced greater challenges in the last 3,000 years.  But when we do, it probably won't be by getting 'back' on track.  Greece's saving grace is that it has very educated and very European-focused young people who will get involved in the recovery and can hopefully lead the motherland forward, not back.

Weird, Ugly and Stubborn.

Another weird and ugly win for the Heels this afternoon over Virginia.  Carolina has fallen into an odd pattern of shooting badly (33 percent in this game) on the road - yet winning.  The way Virginia plays defense, by packing their zone in the lane, you would the think the Heels would have needed another Raleigh-on-Thursday-night shooting display to win.

But that's not what happened.  

None of Carolina's perimeter players had a decent game.  Kendall Marshall was stymied all night, Reggie Bullock was off and generally had a terrible game, and Harrison Barnes never got into the flow of the game at all.  Those three were a combined 4 for 24.

Of Carolina's wing players only PJ Hairston was productive, with a mini, personal 5-0 run in the second half.

So how did Carolina win on a night Virginia dared our wings to win the game, but they didn't?

That's where stubborn comes in.

Despite the packed and swarming Wahoo defense (toughest question Evan asked me this game: "What's a Wahoo?") the Tar Heels insisted - stubbornly - to feed the paint and rely on Tyler Zeller and John Henson to win this game.  

And those two came through.

Zeller was unstoppable early, and scored our first 8 points, and of course that freak-nasty, step-threw dunk with 13 seconds left were our final 2 points of the game.  He finished with 20 and 8, another solid and player-of-the-year type of performance, one the Heels needed on a day Barnes went 3 for 15 from the floor.  Foul trouble and a momentum changing run at the point by Stilman White helped take Z out of the middle part of this game but he was great at the end.

If Psycho Z carried the Heels early, Henson carried Carolina late.  In the final 10 minutes he WAS the Carolina offense.  And he, too, had a freak-nasty dunk off of an in bounds pass in the second half.  Henson also was very tough on the glass in the final 10 minutes,  made 7 of 8 free throw for the game, and made a big defensive play and steal off a Virginia in-bounds pass late.  Like Zeller, he disappeared a bit in the middle of the game and had a few very bad turnovers, too, but late he was money.  Oh yeah, Henson also had another double-double, 15 and 11 boards.   

And though he didn't shoot like he did in Raleigh, kudos for Marshall for finding his big men down the stretch as the Heels pulled out another ugly win in a weird game, thanks to Carolina's stubborn insistence on going inside and getting the best and easiest shot possible.

GO HEELS!

A few more notes:

• Hard to measure Carolina's defense in this one.  On one hand, Virginia only scored 51 points. On the other, it mainly looked like they missed some makeable shots especially in the last 5 minutes.  The Cavaliers also took lots of bad shots, none worse than Mike Scott's 18 footer with about a minute left.
• Not much bench play in this one, though James Michael McAdoo did make 3 of 4 free throws and Hairston did have that nice run; each played 12 minutes, while White and Justin Watts managed just 3 minutes each.

The Answer is NO

Earlier this season, I tweeted or blogged or some-word-that-did-not-exist-in-the-year-2000 "is there anything Kendall Marshall CAN'T do?"

Clearly, the answer to that question is no.  Just ask NC State.

Marshall easily had his best offensive game of this career tonight, expertly looking for - and making - his shots at exactly the right time.  The result was a career high 22 points - including 4 of 5 from three - to go along with his usual 13 assists.  His assist to turnover ratio was an unmeasurable 13 to 0.  

22 points. 

80 percent from three, on 5 shots.

13 assists. 

ZERO turnovers.

Add those crazy good numbers to four fellow starters who also finished in double figures, and you have a 12-point beat down of arch in-state rival NC State, in Raleigh.  The Heels have now beaten NC State 12 straight games.  

Marshall lead a methodical and efficient offense for Carolina.  The Heels shot 51 percent for the game, and 52 percent from three.  Marshall and the three-point shooting were the story of the game.

Bullock had his third straight nice game from outside.  His touch has returned as he went 3 for 6 tonight.  And PJ Hairston made his first three in over a month.

Barnes was engaged all night, and mixed in 2 three-point shots with drives, pull ups, and free throws on his way to 20 points.

Henson was active on both ends for another double-double, 14 and 13 and 2 blocks, and Zeller got on track in the second half on his way to 14 and 8 and 4 blocks.

The only down sides were Zeller did not get many touches, McAdoo had an off night, and of more concern the number of minutes played.  All 5 Heels starters played 31 minutes or more, including Marshall's 38.

But Marshall's other numbers are the real story tonight.  His performance, along with Bullock getting his touch back, makes Heels fans everywhere excited and anxious and giddy.  If this is a foreshadowing of Marshall's play down the stretch. watch out! 

GO HEELS!

Tigers Provide NCAA Preview

The easy take away from yesterday's win over Clem(p)son (as pronounced in the southcalina dialect) is the continuation of one of the most confounding and inexplicable streaks in sports.  The Tigers continue to be 0-forever - 0-56 to be exact - in Chapel Hill. 

The real takeaway, at least for me, in the 22-point win was the way Carolina had to play. Clemson was determined to keep Carolina from running, and usually only had 2 - sometimes 3 - players crashing the boards. Their emphasis was to stop the Carolina fast break and prevent the Heels from scoring easy baskets (similar to most NBA teams, by the way; that's one reason scoring has trended down over the last 15-20 years in the League).

A corollary to that strategy is to get back - and set - on defense, and force Carolina score in the half court.  

It's not a bad strategy - few if any teams want to run with the Heels - one Carolina will almost certainly see in the NCAA tournament. That's why yesterday's win may be more significant then it otherwise appeared.

Carolina looked pretty good in the half court against a pretty good defensive team.  Thanks to Kendall Marshall the Heels got good shots, and were generally pretty patient on offense. 

The Tigers also augmented their 'forget rebounding let's get back on D' scheme by packing it in against Zeller and Henson. Zeller eventually got his points but may of those were on turnover-fueled fast breaks.  Henson faired better, and got some good open looks in half court sets.  Desmond Hubert even got into the act with 2 dunks.

But with Clemson getting back and packing it in, Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock had to respond, and did with great games from the perimeter. As is often the case, Barnes took over the game early in the second half on his way to 24 points, including 3 of 6 from behind the three-point line.  And Bullock was right behind him, going 3 for 5 from behind the arch. Ol' Roy keeps saying the Heels are good shooters, and it was true yesterday as the Heels shot 43 percent on threes.

[As for P.J. Hairston, oy!]

Carolina's defense was generally good, too, at least it looked good.  But frankly it's hard to judge against a team like Clemson, who took lots of early shots and did not work the ball around the perimeter that much.  But the Heels did force shooters like Tanner Smith to put the ball on the floor, which was nice to see.

So in addition to extending the streak, great to see the Heels make some threes, play some D, but more importantly have to run their half court offense for most of the game, a game they won by 22 points.

GO HEELS!