Thursday, March 29, 2012

Wrists and shoes - and of course Harrison Barnes.

First the wrists were broken, then the other - and other - shoe dropped as Kendall Marshall, Harrison Barnes, and John Henson announced their intentions to enter the 2012 NBA draft today.

I could have pivoted from wrists broken to hearts broken, but that's a little overly dramatic for Dean Smith's basketball program. Also, for most if not ALL Carolina fans, our hearts were broken Sunday - twice. Once when it was announced that Marshall would not play against Kansas, and the second time in the excruciating final four minutes against the Jayhawks that saw Carolina outscored 0-12.

Today was merely a formality, at least for Barnes and Henson. Everyone knew that this season was likely to be their last in Chapel Hill. Hopes were raised slightly by the small possibility that that trio would return in order to make a run at the 2013 national championship, but that was frankly a smaller-than-small possibility.

Injuries often are THE deciding factor for players facing these kinds of decisions, so even though Marshall's was a bit a of a surprise his draft stock is sky high, and honestly how could he play any better than he did down the stretch this year?  The combination of an injury and the talent level (ceiling?) he reached apparently clinched it for the Dumfries, Virginia sophomore. Marshall has been compared to Jason Kidd, though he's slower than Kidd was when he was also entering the NBA as a sophomore, and with the right team he should become a star.

Henson leaves after 2 years of scintillating play on both ends of the floor.  Interesting to note that he came to Carolina hoping to develop into a 3 for the NBA, only to comfortably reassert himself as a traditional - and game changing - power forward who can block shots on one end, score with either hand on the other. Like Marshall, his draft stock is likely at it's peak. If his body can withstand 82 games in a man's league, Henson should thrive in the league on his defense alone. But his quickness and ability to hit the mid-range jumper should also help him succeed.

As it has been since he stepped on campus in the fall of 2010, it's harder to assess Harrison Barnes. When he was great, he was unbelievable. But he wasn't always great, and for a smart and sophisticated guy his concentration and effectiveness maddeningly waxed and waned this season.

And unfortunately, when his team needed him the most in the wake of Marshall's injury, Barnes responded by missing 22 of his last 30 shots in the regional semi-final and final.  

Barnes was coming off a great second half of this freshman year, a half season that saw him explode once Marshall was installed as the starting point guard. Carolina fans expected Barnes to continue that progression this season. Instead, Barnes leveled off into an effective but not always dynamic offensive player whose rebounding improved.  

Finally, he never became the superstar we expected - or needed against Ohio and especially Kansas. Rather than evolving into the next Tyler Hansbrough, an unstoppable combination of skill and will that led Carolina to another national championship, Barnes ended his season - and career in Chapel Hill - as the third-best player on his own team.

We expected those NBA shoes to drop, but did not expect Barnes to settle for that ranking on this year's Tar Heels squad.

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