Next Year's Heels II

Get it?  The title is an homage to Larry Drew II,  the starting point guard for your defending national champs.

Going pro is a slam dunk for Lawson, who depending on the order of the draft, should go in the top 10.  He's improved his game and is ready for the next level.  That's the good news.   The bad news - news tempered by being paid to play basketball - is that the teams most in need of point guard help include backwaters like Golden State and Milwaukee.

At the Thursday press conference Roy Williams said he had spoken with 13 teams and was assured that Ellington would go in the first round thus a guaranteed, three-year contract.  I hope that's true.  Besides a guaranteed contract the great news for Ellington is that is projected to go late in the first round so will likely end up with a playoff team.  Interesting to note how many good teams don't have world-beaters at the 2.  Dallas and San Antonio, for instance, bring their best 2 guards off the bench (Terry and Ginobili, respectively).  Same for New Orleans, Houston and Denver who starts Duke scrub Dahntay Jones at 2.

The other significant draft news is that Gerald Henderson will enter the draft but not hire and agent.  Henderson will likely be drafted in Lawson territory so has probably played his last game as a Blue Devil (a game where he went 1 for 9 from the field in a loss to hometown team Villanova).  Duke will be good, but without Henderson they won't be THAT good. I'm not sure why folks like Caulton Tudor are so optimistic about Duke's chances next year.  Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek have proven that they are NOT ACC-caliber talent, and the jury is still out on guys like Nolan Smith. Though Singler and Scheyer are great players Duke is still weak at point and on the boards (again).  Nationally they aren't as talented as Kansas or Michigan State, and even with their losses I don't think Duke measures up to Carolina either.

I was hoping Henderson would stick around one more year for another loss to Carolina in Cameron.  That guy deserves nothing but Tar Heel-induced misery.  Instead he joins luminaries like Greg Paulus in the list of players who will leave Durham having never won in Cameron against the Heels.

I'm a fan of the NBA, but can not get into the playoffs yet.  These first-round series always seem tedious and rarely produce an upset, though Dallas taking down San Antonio does qualify as one even with Ginobili on the bench for the Spurs.  The NBA should restore some legitimacy for the regular season - which is long enough - and reduce the number of teams that make the playoffs.

I'll blog more on the NBA playoffs in a could of more rounds.

NATS UPDATE

Well, the Mets have put an end the Nats' 6-game, 8-inning winning streak.  Going into the weekend series Washington had been hitting the ball well, but that has ended in cavernous Taxpayer Stadium.  The Nats' anemic hitting in New York joins their bad pitching and shoddy defense for an 'in the toilet' trifecta!

Nats To Repeat 102-loss Season?

Whatever good feeling the Nats could have possibly had entering the season - the signing of Adam Dunn, a new starting rotation - died over the weekend.  Though they've played less than a dozen games the three excruciating losses to the Marlins - games in which the Nats led heading into the 8th inning each game - are potential season killers.

Those losses highlighted that the Nats' bullpen is even weaker - weaker - than their anemic starting rotation. But against the Marlins the Nationals got good staring pitching from the top three in their rotation: Lannan, Olsen and Cabrera.  And they hit well in two of those games, and in their win against the Phillies.  Holding those three leads would have given the Nats a four-game winning streak.  

Those good feelings only lasted 8 innings each game as closer Joel Hanrahan blew the first two games, including a three-run lead on Saturday, before Saul Rivera gave up a one-run lead on Sunday.  

The only good news is the Nats' offense is much improved. Dunn is hitting and getting on base; his OBP is over 500 and he has two dingers so far.  Zimmerman has a 10-game hitting streak, Elijah Dukes is hitting over 300, and since moving up to the 2 spot in the order Nick Johnson is 10 for 19 so there is some hope on offense.

Unfortunately, the name of the game is still pitching.  Let's hope rookie starter Jordan ZImmerman and the revamped bullpen (Rivera was reassigned and Hanrahan is hopefully no longer the closer) offer some hope for the pitching staff and this team can go 500 the rest of the season.  That would mean the Nats finish around 75-76 wins, nothing to write home about but a big improvement over last season's 60-102 record.  

Next Year's Heels

While waiting for my championship t-shirt and commemorative DVDs, I can't help but be tantalized by the thought of Wayne Ellington returning to the Heels next season for his senior season.

Lately draft prognosticators have restated that Hansbrough will go in the second half of the first round, and that Lawson will go between the 10th and 20th pick. With his improved outside shooting Lawson's a lottery pick to me but his size keeps him from going in the first 10 picks.

But Ellington continues to be a projected second-round selection. Players who go in the first round get a guaranteed, three-year contract. However, there is no such guarantee for second-rounders.

In addition to his uncertain draft status, coming back would allow Ellington to be the MAN next year. Not only would Carolina's offense revolve around him - when was the last time, if ever, Carolina ran their offense around their 2-guard? Never? - but Ellington would be among the favorites for ACC player of the year.

The projected line up of Drew II, Ellington, Ginyard, Thompson and Davis, with Graves, Zeller, uber-freshman Hanson and one of the freshman guards backing up Drew, is tantalizing to say the least.

Some random hoops notes:

• Thanks to the two recent championships it seems like it was a million years ago that Matt Doherty was the coach in Chapel Hill. In light of FIU signing Isiah Thomas as their head coach, it's interesting to note that Doherty has not exactly set the world on fire since leaving Carolina. After a year at Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton, one of FIU's biggest rivals, Doherty is now the head coach at Southern Methodist University. According to ESPN, "SMU has gone from 17 losses to 20 to 21 in Doherty's three seasons in Dallas." Hard to believe that guy had the keys to the Carolina basketball program.
• Almost as weird as seeing Thomas go to FIU was the news that Greg Paulus may enroll at Michigan to play quarterback. Like his brother, the back up quarterback at Carolina, Greg Paulus was one of the best high school quarterbacks in the United States, and chose Duke basketball over Notre Dame football. The Paulus/Michigan story may be even odder than the Thomas/FIU one. The former is a marginal player trying to latch on to a marquee athlethic program, while the latter is a marquee college basketball player trying to latch on to a marginal college basketball program.
• For the record, FIU does have two NBA alums: Raja Bell and Carlos Arroyo (who now plays in Israel).
  

The Masters

All I can say about The Masters is this: it's played in the south, at a restricted country club.  Who do you think the 'masters' refer too?

2005 Team Redux

In the wake of Carolina's win on Monday, there have been a lot of comparisons between the 2005 and 2009 squads.  The similarities are obvious: May=Hansbrough; Felton=Lawson; McCants=Ellington; Marvin Williams=Davis, even Thomas=Drew II. 

The comparison's break down at cousin Jackie Manuel and Danny Green. Manuel and Marcus Ginyard match up but there was no one on the 2005 team quite as versatile as Green.  That fact may put the 2009 Tar Heels ahead of the 2005 champs. 

The other place the comparison breaks down is with Jawad Williams and Deon Thompson.  Though they had similar stats - and coincidentally both torched Michigan State in the first half of a Final Four game - Jawad was more of an outside threat while Deon is almost exclusively a low-post player.

I've saved Jawad for last as a way of celebrating the news that the Cleveland native has signed with his hometown Cavaliers for the remainder of the season.  Jawad had a cup of coffee with the Cavs earlier this season, and has played all over the last four years (Spain, Japan and Israel)  but primarily in the D-League. He was recently called up from that league's Grand Valley franchise when anti-Heel/former NC State karma wrecker J.J. Hickson was lost for the season due to injury.

Jawad is the sixth member of the 2005 national champs to play in the NBA, joining the stars of that team (May, McCants, Felton and Marvin) and David Noel (who spent a season with Milwaukee and is currently playing with the Reno Bighorns in the D-League).  

Despite Green's versatility having six NBA players - though in fairness only Felton and Marvin Williams are starters and consistent contributors to their teams - may give the edge to the 2005 champs.

Either way, GO HEELS!

Hansbrough, Green and Frasor Exit as National Champs

There are so many great things to blog about when your team, and especially when your team is Carolina, wins a national championship.

Odd how good 'your team' winning can make you feel.  In reality, in means nothing - unless you consider deciding on which commemorative tee-shirt or DVD to buy as something.  

But for sports fan, it obviously means much more than that.  It makes you happy in a silly but meaningful way, and it's one of the best parts of being a sports fan.

But being a Carolina fan is even better.  My love for Carolina makes me one of the most biased people on the planet. I would be guilty of being overly dramatic if i said Chapel Hill saved my life. A more accurate statement would be, as someone who went to Carolina from Fayetteville - FAYETTEVILLE - Chapel Hill is where my life really took off, really started.

That's why we care so much about the Heels (and, incidentally, why I make a point of voting for Anup Desai every week on American Idol, too).

The connection we feel to Carolina is not the only reason to enjoy a national championship.  There are many reasons: the fact that Carolina has graduated more than 95 percent of its players for the last 40 years, the lack of permanent corporate signage at the Dean Dome, the way Carolina prioritizes basketball yet also keeps it in perspective.  

Then there is the dominance. Most hoopsters consider 1979 the birth of the 'modern era' of college basketball. Not only was that the year that Magic battled Bird for the national championship in what is still the most watched basketball game in history, 1979 was also the first year the NCAA seeded teams.  Carolina has the most national championships, 4, and the most final fours, 11, in the 31-year modern era.  Even with the 3 lost years of the DOH! regime, Carolina's win last night certifies the Tar Heels as the best college basketball program of the modern era.  Case closed.

But even with that dominance, for me the best part of last night's championship was the players.  The people associated with basketball at Carolina, led by the peerless Dean Smith but including players like Michael Jordan, David Noel, George Lynch, Ademola Okulaja, Sean May, Raymond Felton, Antawn Jamison, Charlie Scott, James Worthy, Jimmy Black, Sam Perkins, Billy Cunningham, Larry Brown, and Phil Ford make one proud to be a Tar Heel.

Now we can add the 2009 champs to that list, led by Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green.  Those two will always be among my favorite Heels.  I blogged before about Hansbrough and how he epitomizes the essence of sport.  Psycho T is all about an honest effort, exhausting yourself for your team and school.  Hansbrough is pure and honest and what sports should be all about.

Green epitomizes the other thing I love about sport: being willing to take responsibility, to step up when needed.  Did anyone step up more than Danny Green this year?  He carried Carolina in January and February, and made as many big plays - if not more - than Hansbrough, Lawson or Ellington.  Stepping up became his calling card.  How impressive is that?  

Finally, neither gave it to the negative things swirling around them. Hansbrough ignored the taunts and doubts about his game or ability.  He simply played hard and played skillfully and let those traits settle things.  Green never hid the fact that his father was in prison.  It affected him his sophomore year.  It seemed to motivate him his senior year.  Great stories both.

Those two made this championship extra sweet; what a great way to cap a career for seniors Green, Hansbrough and Frasor. It's always great to win, to see great players like Lawson and Ellington play great Carolina basketball.  To see guys like Deon Thompson and Ed Davis dominate a team like they did in the first half against the Spartans.  To see Bobby Frasor get rewarded for persevering with a break-away lay up in the championship game. 

It's just great to be a Tar Heel.

CAROLINA COGITATION

• There have been quite a few comparisons between the 2009 and 2005 teams.  For me, the biggest difference is in what each championship meant. The 2005 championship washed away the bad taste of the 8-20 campaign of 2002, and reassured Tar Heel Nation that all was right again.   As stated above, this year's championship signals that Carolina is THE dominant program in college basketball.
• As long as Roy is at the helm Carolina is going to dominate.  Roy now has 2 championships and 3 final fours in 6 years (not to mention 4 straight wins at Cameron and 7 of the last 10 overall against the University of New Jersey at Durham). Do yourselves a favor and pen Carolina into your final four EVERY year until Roy retires in 10 years.  Williams recruits like crazy - and you'd have to be crazy to turn down a scholarship to Carolina - and is both a good teacher and game coach.  He and Carolina will always be tough to beat. 
• Look for another great ride next year too.  Carolina's 2006 team, led by Noel and a freshman named Hansbrough, made an unlikely run to the NCAA tournament that season. Unlike Florida, who won two championships but followed that up with two straight NITs, Roy does not allow a let down in the program.  And for a guy who's won two championships in the last six seasons his 2006 coaching job may have been his best ever.  Don't expect a let down next season.
• Congrats to sister Cleo for winning the PIRG NCAA pool, and for Evan and Ariadne for coming in fifth.  For the record, I came in 11th place.
• Finally, a word on Michigan State and their bid to uplift their economically suffering state's spirits.  One thing everyone is ignoring is that North Carolina is not an affluent state immune to the global economy or the recession. Up until recently, I imagine Michigan was much more affluent, and thanks to labor unions had a much larger middle class.  Michigan does not have a monopoly on struggling economies.  Take a look at the Tar Heel State's economy: the textile industry - relocated to Mexico and Honduras and Vietnam; the furniture industry - gone to China; tobacco - long gone (good riddance). For years those were the three pillars of North Carolina's economy. In the 80s and 90s those industries were replaced by turkeys and hogs, and high tech, both still there, and finance/banking. The third one is obviously hurting, almost on par with the auto industry and for one of the same reasons: stupidity and/or incompetence. I guess the reason Michigan gets more sympathy is that unlike the state of North Carolina, the state of Michigan still does not have a second act on the their economy. There is no there there after the auto industry. But North Carolina the state is hardly Goliath to Michigan's David when discussing the economy.

65-46 with 12 minutes left

Heels not shooting or rebounding well in the second half.   But I like the big three by Danny Green to restore some sanity.

61-41 with 15 left

No time for a let up.  Heels have left some points on the rim but with the exception of Suton the Spartans look a little tired.  Now is the time to go on another 6-0 run and end this game for good.

Almost Perfect Half

Behind Ellington's 17 points the Heels are flat out dominated Michigan State. Carolina is showing their resolve and focus, and Tar Heels' overall talent is simply overwhelming poor old Michigan State. The Heels are up despite a rather lackluster first half from Ty Lawson and Danny Green.   That's how good Carolina has been, and how good Thompson and Davis have been.  

I hope the Heels don't let up, and with Hansbrough and Lawson I don't think that will be a problem.  GO HEELS!

48- 25 with 4 minutes left in half

As dominant as Thompson and Davis have been - and they've been as dominant as dominant can be - Wayne Ellington is at another level of dominance!

17-7 at the first time out

How about that offense?  Can anyone stop this team when it's rolling like this?  Let's hope not.

NCAA Preview

I'm a little nervous three hours before tip-off, but mainly calm. Some of that is age, but I think most of that calm comes from the Carolina basketball team. Their resolve and determination, coupled with pretty phenomenal talent, should be enough to win Carolina's fifth NCAA championship tonight (sixth overall if you count, as Carolina does, a team in the 1920s that was voted the number one team in the nation).

Michigan State will be very tough, especially on the boards, but the Heels should prevail. Offensively, teams that shoot the three effectively are the ones most likely to give Carolina problems, and the Spartans are not a great three-point shooting team. The Heels' three-point defense has been very effective in the last two games, so that will probably not be a problem tonight.

The bigger threat is probably from the crowd and the hype around playing for a downtrodden state. Adrenaline can make up for a lot. Hopefully Carolina starts strong and keeps the crowd from getting into the game early and effectively.

But bottom line, I can't see Michigan State stopping all of Carolina's weapons. If they focus on Hansbrough down low, that leaves things open for Ellington and Green. Finally, the home-state team will not be able to stop Ty Lawson. Travis Walton will probably guard Lawson, but he's similar to Oklahoma's Warren, another taller, longer guard. Warren couldn't stop Lawson, and neither will Walton.

As you know, Tar Heels love to brag about how humble we are. Nonetheless, I'll point out that I correctly picked Carolina to defeat Villanova by 14, accurately predicted that the Heels would win by 12 over Oklahoma, and was off by one point on the Gonzaga spread (I said 22, final score was by 21).

So my prediction for tonight is an eleven point win for the Heels, led by balanced scoring and tougher than expected defense. I'm sticking with my pick of Ellington leading Carolina to the win, but with Lawson having another strong game and being named MVP of the Final Four.

GO HEELS!

On to Monday night

The second half went according to plan and the Heels held on to defeat Villanova by 14.  And as good as Ellington and Lawson were, the best player on the floor for the final 20 was Danny Green.  

Villanova hit shots and turned the Heels over coming out of halftime and cut the lead to five points.   At that point, Green hit two big threes around an old-fashioned three-point play by Lawson - after one of Hansbrough's four steals - to practically ice the win for North Carolina.  

Green has done that all season, hitting so many game-changing shots that I've lost count. But tonight, as it always is with Danny Green, it was about his total game not just his three-point shooting.  As was the case when he ripped an offensive rebound away from the Griffin brothers, Green had a big offensive rebound he simply wanted more than two Wildcats in the second half.  Ditto with a big blocked shot and charge that he took to end Villanova's second half run. He's a deity in my book.

  

Green's second half play looks even bigger when you look at the overall play of both teams. Neither team was very smooth on offense, with Carolina leaving good shots on the rim and stubbornly missing lots of free throws. The silver lining, besides Green, is that Ellington hit two key baskets at key times and Lawson continued to push the ball up court.   But Carolina missed shots because they missed shots.  Villanova missed mainly due to Carolina's defense.  Every Wildcat shot seemed to be contested. Carolina's defensive intensity and aggressiveness on offense wore out Villanova, who as predicted were overwhelmed by the Heels' defense, focus, and talent.

That focus and toughness and improvement on defense, coupled with the fact that on offense Carolina has been able to get any shot they want all tournament long, will hopefully lead to their 5th NCAA title on Monday night.

GO HEELS!

One last note; one reason the second half had no flow was the referees, who generally stunk and I thought called a self-conscious game.  In the first half, they appeared spooked by both teams being in the double bonus and swallowed their whistles.  In general, college officiating is getting worse and worse, so bad that Sport Illustrated noted that the college game is much rougher than the NBA.  And the flow and beauty of basketball - and offense - suffer mightily.  Here's hoping the NCAA adopts two great NBA rules: no hand checking, and the 'no-charge zone' under the basket.  The way games are officiated now in the NCAA the defense has a big advantage.  

That style of play is one reason why I keep criticizing the Big East. That league is way too physical and as a result is simply bad and unattractive basketball.  Ironic that that overrated conference will - in effect - have 3 refs on the floor Monday night but no teams playing for a national championship.

First Half

So far so good for the Heels.   As predicted, Carolina got off to a great start and led by as many as 17 behind Wayne Ellington and Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson.  Late in the half North Carolina got a little sloppy and left some shots on the rim, allowing Villanova to close to within nine.

Offensively, the Heels are getting whatever they want.  Davis and Zeller left a few shots on the rim, and the refs decided to swallow their whistles late in the half to keep Hansbrough off the line.  But the Heels are getting the shots they want.  

Defensively the Heels were a little loose.   Look for that to tighten up in the final 20, and look for Lawson to take charge.  But bottom line, I think Carolina's talent will overwhelm the Wildcats in the final 10 minutes.  This game is being played at Carolina's pace, a pace Villanova will not be able to keep up with for much longer.

GO HEELS!

Tone Deaf in Motown

Why does the media short change Motown?  Tonight, instead of using "Dancing in the Streets" or "Heatwave" or any other great Motown hit, CBS lead off their coverage with Kid Rock's cover of Kiss' "Detroit Rock City."  How white-boy suburbanite can CBS be?

A couple of years ago the same thing happened at the Super Bowl, where instead of featuring say, Detroit native Aretha Franklin or a Motown star like Smokey Robinson, the half-time show featured the Rolling Stones.  It's bad enough slighting Motown, worse to turn to a British band who became famous doing kareoke-style versions of black American music.

I Hope This Run Continues

If Carolina wins their fifth NCAA championship this weekend it will conclude a great great week. Passing the lands bill, visiting the White House, Ariadne getting admitted and deciding to attend Burke next year, her performance in the Phantom Tollbooth where she was fantastic as Tock - she has a real gift for acting, and has great timing, facial expressions, can ad lib, and is funny and charismatic, but I'm biased -  Evan already hitting the cover off the ball and doing a good job in the play too, AND Carolina in the Final Four is almost too much for me to handle.

Villanova will be a tough game but one I expect Carolina to win in the same way they handled Gonzaga or Duke this year, especially the game at Cameron.  Don't be surprised if Carolina leads early, Villanova goes on a run to make it close or take the lead at half before Lawson and Ellington assert themselves in the second half and Carolina ends up winning by 12 to 16 points.  The Heels will end up wearing out the Wildcats, and Carolina's talent will eventually overwhelm Nova.

Not too much else to say about that game, but that won't stop me from making two more points.   One, Villanova has more scorers than Oklahoma did but I expect Carolina's defense to replicate what they did against the Sooners.  The Heels did a great job moving on defense and playing the passing lanes in the regional final win. 

And two, their improved defense is one reason the Heels should prevail but the most important factor is their resolve. I like the way everyone from Roy to the walk-ons has reference last year's flop in the first half against Kansas.  That memory has produced a very focused North Carolina squad, one that should handle Villanova tonight.

FINAL FOUR FULMINATIONS

•  I'm sentimentally picking Michigan State to defeat Ed and Jim's Huskies.  A state school representing an economically-battered state playing in Detroit is too sentimental of a story for me to pick against (at least in the semi-final).  Plus, everyone who plays for Michigan State is from Sparta so it's the only Greek squad in the tournament.
  
• Greece picked up 4 points this week in tying then defeating Israel in World Cup 2010 qualifying.  Greece leads their group but is essentially tied with Switzerland.  Mark you calendars for the first week of September when Ellas plays their home and home series against the inventors of the kookoo clock!
• I follow Greek soccer fairly close, and would like to do the same for MLS.  We usually go to a few United games, and the women's league is back this season so I bet we'll go to the two or three United-Freedom doubleheaders planned for RFK.  I think MLS would be better served if they moved their season up or back a few weeks.   Instead, they launch their season during March Madness and around opening day for baseball and no one, least of all ESPN or sports TV, seems to pay much attention.  I'd start earlier, in February if possible when the sports scene has a lull between the Super Bowl and March Madness/MLB opening day.
• Finally, congrats to Run-DMC for being admitted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  The trio made their mark rapping over rock records, and their songs featured hip-hop beats and lots of guitar and became a bridge between hip-hop and rock and roll.  Their song and video for 'King of Rock' is a punk rockish kiss off to mainstream rock and roll, complete with a great anti-Beatles lyric that makes fun of John Lennon's death ('there's three of us but we're not the Beatles;" the Meatmen had a similar song called "One Down Three To Go").   Lots of punks/scenesters listened to Run-DMC, Public Enemy, etc. back then.  Ironic that their greatest 'hit' - their cover of Aerosmith's 'Walk this Way' ended their career. Covering a classic rock song cost them their street cred with hip-hop fans and with punk rockers, and both groups of fans stopped buying Run-DMC records after that album came out.